Posted on 04/08/2020 7:27:26 PM PDT by Zhang Fei
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy
US Coronavirus Cases: 434,927 Deaths: 14,788 Recovered: 22,891
Italy Coronavirus Cases: 139,422 Deaths: 17,669 Recovered: 26,491
What do you imply with that?
5’ll get you 10 that this will be (intentionally) misinterpreted as meaning, “if you get CV you have a 40% chance of dying and a 60% chance of recovering”
That there are 397,248 outcomes that have not been determined.
It seems there should be a third statistic tracked for those who are still sick, but have not yet recovered.
Italy has 292 deaths per million. We have 95.
these are just diagnosed-what you dont’ know is how many are really infected in Italy or US-probably much higher percentage in Italy as they were welcoming flights from Wuhan in late January
Because that’s exactly what it sounds like.
You’re right.
I meant to say that this sound bite item was intentionally crafted to cause the reader to misunderstand.
That's how I read it.
I wonder what happened on/about February 24th, that so dramatically improved the death rate in Italy?
That’s the correct way to look at it. Should look at it as follows: total cases = # recovered + # dead + # confirmed cases who are sick. We’ll call it n.
Then the correct %s are # recovered/n × 100, # dead/n × 100, and # confirmed cases not dead or recovered/n × 100.
That’s another way to look at it - on a per capita basis.
[these are just diagnosed-what you dont’ know is how many are really infected in Italy or US-probably much higher percentage in Italy as they were welcoming flights from Wuhan in late January]
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-travel-industry-chinese-tourists-trade-war-66576399
https://www.statista.com/statistics/814882/number-of-chinese-tourist-arrivals-in-italy-by-region/
Based on how and whom we tested during the period, if you were tested than you had 60:40 chance.
And the tests for most part were only given to those that presented already being sick enough to Go to the hospital
Big difference.
This post is statistical soup, in otherwords meaningless to anyone but the information gatherer.
People who have tested positive vs Deaths. Recovery can be assumed 30 days afterwards if no death has occurred. The standard practice is when a positive is discovered go self isolate for 14+ days. If you die in that time it is counted as a death, even if patient gets ran over by a bus.
The numbers are surveillance.. the rate of change is all that matters. When testing per day is growning or flat and new infections is going down for 3 to 5 days in a row we know R0 < 1. All that really matters, an infected person is spreading it to less than 1 person on average.
R0 < 1 for 14 to 45 days this is just an interesting bit of medical history, an opportunity to make a fortune on a vaccine and we restart the machine.
Death rate from this seems to be .75% across all populations 18-65 and 3-5% for compromised individuals.
I agree with your point. Obviously the calculation of the number of recovered is wrong.
But if it were right, then yes it would imply a 40% death rate. The right way to calculate a death rate (once you actually have correct numbers) is not deaths divided by total infected, but deaths divided by total closed cases, where closed cases equals deaths plus recoveries.
All of this is uninterpretable data, given that we really do not know how many people have been infected. The recovery rate could be much higher, if recovery includes those infected who never developed symptoms.
[All of this is uninterpretable data, given that we really do not know how many people have been infected. The recovery rate could be much higher, if recovery includes those infected who never developed symptoms.]
I’ve heard it stated that deaths in Italy from the coronavirus that occur in nursing homes or private homes are not counted in the official total.
I don’t know whether this is true or not.
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