The only “model” with any success is actually quite accomplished and appeared in 1840, when a “computer” was an abacus. It’s called Farr’s Law, and is actually more of an observation that epidemics grow fastest at first and then slow to a peak, then decline in a more-or-less symmetrical pattern. As you might guess from the date, it precedes public health services and doesn’t require lockdowns or really any interventions at all. Rather, the disease grabs the low-hanging fruit (with COVID-19 that’s the elderly with co-morbid conditions) and finds it progressively harder to get more fruit.
Government tests show sunlight rapidly destroys the CCP virus, according to a Department of Homeland Security science and technology report.
“Sunlight destroys the virus quickly,” the report states.
Researchers simulated sunlight and found it greatly increased the inactivation rate of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, a novel coronavirus that emerged from mainland China last year, on surfaces relative to darkness.
The half-life of the virus was 2 minutes with full solar intensity, or similar to New York City or the District of Columbia during a clear day on summer solstice.
“Sunlight reduced infectious virus to undetectable levels after just 3 minutes of exposure to the solar equivalent of midday sun on a sunny day in the middle latitudes of the U.S.,” researchers wrote.
Half solar intensity killed the virus in 3 minutes while quarter intensity, equivalent to a clear day at the end of February, inactivated it in 4 minutes.
I heard this right in the beginning and wondered why people being at the beach would be so dangerous.
Which may be why the homeless staying outdoors are doing so well. At least compared to people in Detroit who had no place to go outside in our Michigan weather.
Open the baseball season!
Hold off on night games a little while longer
Gee, and the consensus medical advice is to stay inside at home to avoid the virus.
It sounds like the author has never lived in Washington, DC.
Everyone should either get some sunlight. ...or visit a tanning booth, or the remaining ones Obama hasnt destroyed.
It turns out that, when it comes to the Wuhan flu, sunlight is the best disinfectant.
Our great and great/great grandmothers knew this reality and passed it down the generations.
Years ago patients with TB, whatever they called the flu got better when they spent time outside in the sun.
My dad was seriously injured in 1918 in an Army training accident, and he ended up in that hospital in Kansas that may have been the trigger point for the Spanish flu. He convinced the corpmen and rns to get him outside to lay on a blanket in the Sun and fresh air. He survived.
Besides killing virus/germs by being in the sun, that sun light increases your dopamine levels which will help your immune system and make you feel better mentally and physically.
People, who walk outside in the sunlight on a regular basis, and those who have dogs, which they walk, will have less of this crud and feel better physically and mentally.
Yeah, when it’s sunny in Seattle perhaps.
Libz must now camp out in subway tunnels and show us a thing or two.
Can you use Farr’s Law to give an estimate for each state?
Yes sunlight kills the virus on surfaces that get sunlight directly, which most of the cells of the human body infected with Covid-19 do not.
The author’s premise is like saying take all the shit in your house and set it out on the lawn during mid day; that will “disinfect” all your stuff.
Forget that you will not wear gloves most of the time when you go out, and will forget to wash your hands as soon as you come home, and will proceed to touch all your shit that was brought in from the lawn, and start depositing on it all the microbes your hands picked up.
You cannot turn your body inside out, take a sun bath and kill whatever “bugs” have invaded your body.
Sunlight may kill Covid-19 but sunlight is not going to kill a Covid-19 epidemic. MOST Covid-19 infecting people never sees sunlight.
Isn’t this kind of old news? I mean wasn’t it found why back during the 1918 aka Spanish Flu pandemic that the best results for recovery where from patients that got lots of sun and fresh air? And isn’t that why all flu tend to disappear when Spring and Summer weather hit?
There was an article on FR earlier about only 18% of democrats would take chloroquine if they had the coronavirus.
Even less would expose themselves to sunlight.