Posted on 05/29/2020 5:24:48 AM PDT by C19fan
As Delhi and Beijing turn to their working mechanism at the level of diplomats to reduce military tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, there’s evidence of the Chinese having deployed towed artillery and mechanised elements on their side of the LAC opposite the Galwan valley.
Highly placed sources told The Indian Express that a detailed analysis of satellite images has shown extensive deployment of towed artillery and mechanised elements on the Chinese side, bringing Indian deployments within striking distance.
(Excerpt) Read more at indianexpress.com ...
Keep an eye on him, there's no telling what kind of hsit he might pull to remain in power.
Agreed
I am usually the last person to say this but if China keeps going in this trajectory there must be a battle, if not a war, with one country or another on land or at sea
“I am usually the last person to say this but if China keeps going in this trajectory there must be a battle, if not a war, with one country or another on land or at sea”
It does appear China is itching to flex it’s American financed muscle. It makes sense to pick a fight they know they can win. I am uneducated about the area around the LAC. Is there any strategic advantage to picking a fight there? Ideally, that fight with a pushover will result in a positional gain.
I don’t think China wants to mess with America directly, or by proxy, yet.
I do not know much about the Indian army, but it has been my observation that at least in HK I felt the PLA was a joke.
That said, a clown with a Chinese AK-47 might not be very funny.
What would be interesting in a Sino/Indian conflict is, which side would Russia support since it has historically supplied both sides?
He may still be consolidating his power; these latest moves may be a signs that he is mollifying certain CCP power elements or he has failed and is desperate. There is also a slim possibility that Xi is no longer in charge behind the scenes.
Is there any strategic advantage to picking a fight there?
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Perhaps control of the water which feeds the farms in the low lands? But this deems to me more like getting the troops bloody, aka combat experience, as well as trying out new weapons in a live theater against a relatively weak opponent in an area that other powers cannot interfere because of the location
Yeah. Kinda unthinkable in a way, but the way they helped the virus to spread to the entire planet was kinda unthinkable too.
[As someone around here was saying within the last few days... Yes, China normally plays the long game but Xi his own self is now playing the short game.
Keep an eye on him, there’s no telling what kind of hsit he might pull to remain in power. ]
Mao tried the Great Leap Forward where he built backyard steel plants out of melted-down farm implements. Tens of millions of Chinese died going down that rabbit hole. This project was so disastrous it had his peers and underlings trying to shunt him off to the side. It was only after he unleashed the Cultural Revolution on them and had them purged that he regained his powers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution
Yang Xiu of the Sui Dynasty waged war on a proto-Korean empire while building a 1,100-mile canal with civilian draftees 1,400 years ago. The ensuing military disasters and famines led to the destruction of the royal clan. He was a very long-term thinker. Problem is his ends exceeded his means.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_Yang_of_Sui
Ying Zheng (aka The First Emperor) of the Qin Dynasty created what we call China today. Without him, what is now China might be a lot like Europe, with a few dozen independent countries, distinct languages and national traditions. However, the massive bloodletting involved in the creation of his empire and his ruthlessness vis-a-vis his courtiers also created a lot of ill-will. After his death, his minions killed two of his heirs, and victorious rebels exterminated the rest of his line. So much for long term thinking. Again, his reach exceeded his grasp, in a way that was fatal to his entire clan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qin_Shi_Huang
Bottom line is that there is nothing magical about Chinese rulers. They can’t see beyond the ends of their noses. Note that Chinese rulers were wearing fine silks and writing poetry when Northern European chieftains were illiterate and running around in animal skins. Despite a thousand year head start, they’re playing catch-up today with the West. If Chinese rulers have a long game, it’s not apparent that success is an adjective associated with their vision.
I think what we need to worry about is the tendency of some Chinese rulers to be degenerate gamblers, to do the equivalent of betting their entire stack of chips on a single number in a game of roulette. IMHO, Xi Jinping isn’t worried about staying in power - he’s worried about not making a big enough splash in the history books.
Does he worry about being able to outsmart his Party rivals? Sure. All dictators have similar worries. People in that line of work look at it as the cost of doing business. Doesn’t prevent them from rolling the dice. What’s all that power for, if not to reach for greatness? Xi could have contented himself with being a mid-level bureaucrat, instead of vying for the top spot. No one would have noticed him and he could have coasted all the way through to retirement. Instead, he propelled himself into the arena, and conducted purges unprecedented since the Mao era. That’s not an accident. He cleaned house domestically and ramped up military procurement to get ready for one big push abroad. Xi is a man in a hurry, and he’s not getting any younger.
China is scared, India is defensive weird way to start a war - they might need help.
“What would be interesting in a Sino/Indian conflict is, which side would Russia support since it has historically supplied both sides?”
I think Russia would stay neutral. However, if it did pick a side, I think it would go with India.
“But this deems to me more like getting the troops bloody, aka combat experience, as well as trying out new weapons in a live theater against a relatively weak opponent in an area that other powers cannot interfere because of the location.”
I agree.
Thank you for your post. I’m no expert on China, but a cursory look at history hardly supports the idea of some superhuman Chinese ability to think long term compared to the West. The one child policy is enough to show that. Yet the long term thinking myth is a very popular idea here.
Interesting thing about China and it’s concept of being superior beings. In China, Kung Fu is a sacred martial art. It is supposed to be superior to all fighting forms. There was a Chinese mid grade MMA fighter that challenged several of the Kung Fu masters and beat the snot out of all of them. Instead of admitting that MMA was better at real fighting than Kung Fu, they harassed the guy into apologizing and destroyed his social score.
If the Chinese military has the same mindset, things will not end well for them, They will go to battle with India feeling invincible and likely get bloodied very quickly. No one fights more fierce than people protecting their home.
Both sides have nuclear weapons.
I don't think there is a good outcome.
The Indian Army preformed very poorly in the 1962 border war. Hopefully if push comes to shove they’ll do better and the Chinese military has the mindset you described.
They have has some recent practice with Pakistan and terrorists. Hopefully they have improved.
I would remind you of the French, defending themselves from German invaders, in 3 modern wars. The troops may have been willing, but the leadership was abysmal.
This area is adjacent to the Kashmir region, a continual hot spot of tension with Pakistan. The Ladakh region was contested in the 1962 war and Chinese have been probing for tactical advantage to the west from their bases. It may be the current confrontation was a response to the Indians building an all-weather bridge across the lake there, giving them an advantage in movement of troops and materiel.
The border is contested all through this area, so this provocation is nothing new as China seeks to establish presence on the ground.
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