Posted on 07/30/2020 6:04:13 AM PDT by mikelets456
I’m in the York area, and have been from Hershey to Harrisburg, south to the MD line, east to Lancaster and west to Gettysburg: not a Biden sign anywhere, so far.
I have never bought the myth that Pennsylvania has a slobbering love affair with Joe Biden. He left Scranton and moved out of state when he was like 20. Most of the old-school union types that used to show up for him are likely dead.
Of course Penn Live, of course.......
Same pollster 4 years ago:
“With one week to go before the election, Democratic nominee Hilary Clinton’s lead in the presidential race has widened to 11 percentage points in Pennsylvania, according to the latest Franklin & Marshall College Poll.
Clinton leads her Republican competitor, Donald Trump, 49 percent to 38 percent, among likely voters. Her support increased 2 percentage points from the last poll, taken the first week of October, while Trump’s remained static.”
Actual Pennsylvania results:
2,970,733 -Trump
2,926,441 -Clinton
Percentage
48.18% -Trump
47.46% -Clinton
“Again, this is why I quit doing polls. F&M was among the absolute WORST in 2016 up there with Quinnipiac.”
This might explain why, from article:
“The poll was done July 20-26 and includes responses from 667 registered voters in Pennsylvania, including 314 Democrats, 267 Republicans and 87 independents.”
Registered voter poll, plus a little special sauce to produce a fake Biden lead.
Go ahead,then you will really suffer.
You can all make solar panels, build low income high rise housing in your suburbs,welcome the thousands of illegal aliens coming from the now wide open Southern border,turn in your hunting rifles. Enjoy
Other polls (of likely voters) are telling a different story. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html
I posted this on another thread this morning. It deals with real numbers, voter registrations.
An article yesterday says Republicans are registering 5 times more people than Dems in the swing state of Pennsylvania.That’s why Larry (Freeper LS) watches the registrations not the polls. The registrations are trending big-time republican across many states, including FL. If this is the case in PA, must be also in related states OH & WI.
“Since the 2016 primary election, Republicans have added about 165,000 net voters, while Democrats added only about 30,000. Democrats still maintain a 800,000-voter edge over Republicans. But that’s down from 936,000 in 2016, when Trump still won the state by less than 1%.
“Look, the president won our state by 44,000-plus votes in 2016,” said Lawrence Tabas, chair of the Pennsylvania Republican Party. “We have since picked up and narrowed the gap between us and the Democrats [by 135,000]. So we were already ahead 44,000, and look what we’ve picked up. I predict we’re going to narrow the gap further between now and November.”
Jack Murphy
@jackmurphylive
“Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley is one of the most important areas in the 2020 election.
Republicans continue to gain ground on Democrats there and across all of PA.
This is a strong positive indicator for Trump’s chance to win PA again.”
Yes, thanks. I saw this on Twit yesterday
Scott Presler also posted the PA registrations facts yesterday on twitter. What a voter registration ‘machine’ he is! Good thing he’s on our side. LOL.
The main difference I find between 2016 and now, is a very good development. I see a move of blacks/hispanics/indo-americans (hindus esp),and gays towards POTUS, which is very encouraging. They have seen through the ‘racist’ lies, and they are staying firm regardless of the harassment they receive from their communities. Not all will vote Republican down-ticket but many won’t vote Biden either.
I’m seeing about the same thing in northeast Ohio. I’ve seen one Biden sign and about 100 Trump signs.
No reasonable American is voting for defunding police while simultaneously emptying the jails either.
I honestly don’t think this election can be predicted as to turn out or winner at this
stage. If this lock down stays in effect until election day then the turn out could well
be something we’ve never seen before.
By that I meant with the work force not fully working and with nothing to do I can
see them being organized to go to the polls and vote. Registration should give some
indication of what may happen.
JMO.
Considering that today one runs the risk of some ANTIFA thug firebombing their house for having a Trump sign, that’s really encouraging.
I was thinking the truly ultimate voter suppression polling was run in 2016, right upto election day. When the pollsters swore that there was a 93% chance Hillary would win, what drove voters to the polls to elect her rival in a shocking upset? They just ignored the pollsters, pundits, prognasticators and just went to vote.
The fake news/pollsters/pundits are running the same playbook as in 2016. It just seems to me that it’s still NOT working. There’s even MORE enthusiasm to vote, which is being caught by voter registration numbers, and it’s NOT trending Dem. There is NO enthusiasim for Biden at all. Keep that in the forefront of thinking about the election.
“....F&M political scientist G. Terry Madonna said.“
Referring to political studies as “political science” is pretentious enough, but referring to pollsters and political commentators as “political scientists” is downright laughable.”
What do FReepers who happen to be real scientists think of this?
“...so the appearance that Trump is on Wolf’s side is really hurting him here.“
I can only speak anecdotally, based on what I am hearing here in the northern Philly suburbs, but I am not seeing that dynamic being a problem at all.
The pro-Trump people hate Wolf, and blame him 100% for business shutdowns and school closings, while the anti-Trump people think shutting down is a good thing - even “patriotic“ - and they give Wolf 100% of the credit.
The fence-sitters, who are neither pro-Trump or anti-Trump, are few and far between - feelings about Trump are extremely polarized. Feelings about the Covid shutdowns are polarized too - very few people are ambivalent. But even they tend to think of the shutdowns as being the Governor’s baby.
So whether people are for or against the shutdowns, Wolf is getting all the blame/credit - both sides even are calling them “Governor Wolf’s guidelines“.
As for these hybrid Pennsylvania voters who blame the President for the shutdowns because he said Wolf is doing a good job - I have not heard one single person express that around here.
I’m not saying they don’t exist, I’m just saying I’m not seeing it.
Personally, I am OK with the President saying Wolf is doing a good job. Just as I’m OK with him complimenting Putin as a worthy adversary, or saying Mexico is doing a good job patrolling the border. Or that he gets along great with Governor Gavin Newsom.
I put all that down to diplomacy - like the way one congressmen will address another as “my good friend from Ohio” or “respected colleague” even though he would sooner rip the other’s throat out.
GOP registration is up in the State, black support for Biden is lower then for Hillary, Trump looks stronger in PA then in 2016
Your professional analysis of all these election tea leaves is extremely important, LS.
It’s amazing how noticeable and significant one small light can be in contrast to all the FAKE NEWS darkness.
Please keep it coming!
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