Posted on 08/03/2020 8:20:53 AM PDT by Hojczyk
Does Wall Street want Trump to win????
But cannot say so or the mob will be after them....
Or will it crash in October
July and August the market usually does not move a lot..
Previous campaigns are instructive.
October 2012
Wall Street thinks Trump is going to win.
In anticipation of a Trump win. Good earnings from tech. The promise of improved GDP.
Tulips are not available to invest in?
And still bouncing back from March devistation.
The stock market is high because money is cheap.
I don’t know where you’ve been for the last six months, but we stopped doing the usual stuff a while back.
Because they are pricing in the value of the US dollar in about a year.
How’s Gold and silver doing?
Trillions in spending, lower taxes, and no sign of stopping the flow of government gimmes.
Corona virus............
Unexpected
Massive
Dims discombobulated,
Two reasons. One, the stimulus package by congress and the fed are both massive. Much larger than the stimulus from 2009. The second reason is that Chinese billionaires and American companies in China and Hong Kong are fleeing. They buy Bit Coin, Gold, And big named tech stocks there with Chinese cash. And hope to sell it here. Or somewhere outside of China. The first reason is about 6 times bigger than the second reason.
I suspect it is because they know that Trump will get back in because the so-called mob is running out of steam.
Yes and for many people there is not much else to do with their money due to lockdown?
Travel? Go out to eat? Start a business? Invest in real estate? Go shopping? For most of us difficult or ill advised.
I believe the The Fed has printed 4 trillion dollars or so in the last year. That money has to go somewehere.
If someone suspects a big market drop in October, there is still time to buy a few Puts via Margin Calls.
All it takes is a rumor to get stockholders nervous.
“Soros and Bill Gates are selling all their shares of “X”!!”
The so called drop may be a self fulfilling prophecy.
But I don’t want to double the capital gains tax. Bernie Sanders wants to triple it. Of course the market wants trump to win.
I have yet to receive a Nobel prize in Economics. But I’m gonna take a guess anyway.
I think the stock market is high for one simple reason: bond yields are very low. Folks flee to bonds in times of uncertainty. And these are uncertain times. But few people area going to flee to a bond fund yielding 2% or less.
So the stock market is the only game in town.
There’s a frequent disconnect between the stock-market and the economy.
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