Posted on 08/03/2020 8:20:53 AM PDT by Hojczyk
It’s dawning on everyone that Trump is gonna win huge.
People want anything but dollars to store their wealth. All of the coronastim packages will be paid for by inflation.
The stock market is a leading indicator of the economy. It goes up or down based on how a majority of stock traders think the economy is going to do, not how the economy is currently doing.
I have tracked the market going back to the 1980 national election. If the Republicans are expected to gain power (e.g, 2010 and 2014), the market starts going up before the election. If the Democrats are expected to gain power (e.g., 2008), the market starts going down before the election. If there is a surprise election in which the Republicans unexpectedly gain power (e.g., 1994 and 2016), the market goes up immediately after the election.
If you own stock mainly in companies like Amazon, Apple, FedEx and Zoom, you are probably having your best investment year ever.
On the other hand, if you are holding stock in companies like Hertz, Marriott, or any major airline, it has likely been a disaster of 1929 proportions.
Most investers are diversified enough where overall they are doing okay or even a little good (my 401k is up 5% so far this year).
It's easy to look at businesses that have been devastated by the pandemic and think that the sky should be falling. But there are a lot of companies out there that are going gangbusters and have actually gotten a major boost from the pandemic situation. Who know a year ago that we should be investing in companies like Kodak and GoJo Industries (owners of Purell Hand Sanizer)?
Investing in real estate is risky. You can get sued if someone is injured on your property. It can be capriciously rezoned or taxed without notice. It can burn or be flooded.
They can sure tax it though...
Massive amount of money creation by the Fed, with no other attractive assets to buy. Markets figure eventually the economy recovers and in the meantime even the dividends on the S&P beat bond coupons.
Massive amount of money creation by the Fed, with no other attractive assets to buy. Markets figure eventually the economy recovers and in the meantime even the dividends on the S&P beat bond coupons.
You left off the foreign stocks. Pacific Rim countries and European countries economies are not doing all that well. Except Vietnam.
My Small Cap stock funds are up huge. Large cap not so much. However, foreign stocks are struggling. Most of Europe was in a recession prior to covid.
Oil is down too. So, that greatly affects the prosperity in many foreign countries. Plus major parts of the economy of the US.
Aren’t stock market highs often achieved just before massive crashes? We’re playing musical chairs right now. Eventually the music stops.
What do you suggest for someone who plans/hopes to retire in about 18 months? Move to more conservative now? Hang in through the election. The values were mostly back as of 6/30/20 to the 12/31/19 values. But nervous about what might happen related to the election. Asking for a friend, of course.
I think in the near future there’s going to be a lot of cheap real estate.
Make it 48 months?
I'm certain that the original quote did not have quotes around "real". There's a reason for that.
See Everett Dirksen (R) noted as saying, "A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon, you're talking real money."
48 months for what?
Until you retire.
I don’t think my friend wants to wait that long. Working full-time for almost 45 years now. Will turn 65 in Feb 2022, so will be eligible for Medicare at that time.
As a long time investor, it is too rich for me to trade in.
In simplest terms though, I think the investors are taking advantage of what they see as a shift to the new post COVID economy.
Techs are soaring because retail has, for the most part, gone online...and so have many former office workers.
Many companies don't want their employees to return full-time to the office (it is significantly cheaper to have them work from home). You can be sure some of those same companies are wondering about shifting some of their previous office workers over to contract work (and why not, since that's what they are when they work from home).
The Dow might be just tagging along, with its investors just generally confused but not wanting to miss out if something good is coming.
Lastly, I think a lot of investors are betting on a Trump win.
I get it.
Just be prepared to adjust if things go sideways, that’s all.
How many ‘dollars’ get destroyed each year because it is ‘worn out’???
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