Who had Swarm of Earthquakes in August?
Only one of these scenarios will occur within the next week. These scenarios include the possibility of earthquakes on and off the San Andreas Fault.
Scenario One (Most likely, about 80% chance): Earthquakes continue but none will be larger than magnitude 5.4 within the next 7 days.
The most likely scenario is that the rate of earthquakes in the swarm will decrease over the next 7 days. Some moderately sized earthquakes may occur (magnitude in the range M4.5-M5.4), which could cause localized damage, particularly in weak structures. Smaller magnitude earthquakes (M3.0+) may be felt by people close to the epicenters.
Scenario Two (Less likely, about 19% chance): A larger earthquake (magnitude 5.5 to 6.9) could occur within the next 7 days.
A less likely scenario is a somewhat larger earthquake (up to a M6.9). Earthquakes of this size could cause damage around the Salton Sea area and would be followed by aftershocks that would increase the number of smaller earthquakes per day.
Scenario Three (Least Likely, approximately 1% chance): A much larger earthquake (magnitude 7 or higher) could occur within the next 7 days.
A much less likely scenario, compared with the previous two scenarios, is that the ongoing swarm could trigger an earthquake significantly larger than the M4.6 that occurred on the 10 August (i.e., M7.0 and above). While this is a very small probability, if such an earthquake were to occur, it would have serious impacts on communities nearby and would be followed by aftershocks that would increase the number of smaller earthquakes per day.
So, you’re saying there’s a chance?.................
Hey, give a one percent chance of winning Powerball and I'll clean out the piggy bank to buy tickets!
Well great USGS forecast. Now I’m going to go see Madam Zelda for a more accurate one.
The 9.0 Cascadian earthquake was also just over three hundred years ago.
these quakes must be a different depths. We’re not far from there, geographically speaking, and while we’ve felt some small, I guess you could call them subsonic rumbles through the bedrock, we didn’t feel the larger 4.1 yesterday at all.
Hi.
Lots and lots of earthquakes these days.
I have been blessed. I have lived in CA, Italy and Turkey, and have never experienced a quake over 5.8
5.56mm
There are several areas in California that are prone to earthquake swarms, hyperventilating because this swarm is at the tail end of the San Andreas is like running in the street and screaming we are all going to die. The swarm on the fault running through Ridgecrest is/was much more severe. The swarm at The Geysers, CA never stops and no doubt Mammoth Lake will start swarming again, so what? it’s California and part of our everyday life, embrace it and don’t fear the Reaper.
Some predict a cataclysmic earthquake on the southern end of the fault, will be similar to a crack-the-whip effect, causing everything on the northern end of CA to thrown into the air 20-30 feet. This includes buildings, homes, freeways etc.