COVID deaths in Florida hit a record for the 2nd week in a row

Palm Beach Post via MSN ^ | 08/30/2021 | Chris Persaud

[glennaro]

Vaccines don’t protect you from getting the communist chinese virus and lockdowns don’t work because unlike what the medical “experts” think, the virus doesn’t give up and go away if we hide from it for a while .... it’s still there, waiting patiently ... for when the unelected bureaucrats allow a hysterical public to go back outside.

[Paul R.]

I believe FL changed how they do their reporting of fatalities, which affects the fatalities curve, creating additional "lag" in the reporting that is later corrected. I do not know how much effect this presently has on numbers days old, instead of a few or several weeks old. Maybe someone here who has time can save the fatalities numbers for each day as presently posted, for the last 2-3 weeks. Then look up those same days in a month, and compare. Repeat in 2 months. If there are large disparities, the usual dependence on recent shape of the fatalities' curve may have been blown up. :-(

My OPINION is still that readily monoclonal antibody treatments are helping a lot. Hopefully someone has firmer large scale data to back that up?

[Paul R.]

Oops. “one of our”...

[Yardstick]

You are correct. Florida changed their reporting method last October. The result is that their data now understates the real-time number until it gets backfilled as more data comes in. It’s hard to explain but it’s probably why the recent peak looks so narrow. As the data is updated it will broaden and look more like the earlier peaks.

What Florida changed is that now they don’t assign deaths to the day the counties report them but rather to the actual dates that the deaths occurred. They did this to block the liberal counties from playing reporting games that were creating misleading headlines. It worked but it created a tricky downward skew on the front edge of the data that straightens out over time.

It’s possible to correct this skew by projecting forward from older data that’s had time to settle, but this risks introducing other errors. Worldometers doesn’t do this type of correction, but other sites do, for instance IHME:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida?view=daily-deaths&tab=trend

IMHE lets you configure the chart to show the projected or raw data, with and without smoothing, etc.

[JoSixChip]

I’ve been watching the numbers for weeks now. They did update for the previous week, but the numbers are still very low and they have not been this low since March 2020. Believe what you want, but I had it a few weeks ago along with my wife ande several other family members. We are all fully recovered after only minor symptoms. I don’t by the BS and am disgusted how many swallow the fearporn from leftest sources. You are free to live in fear, I’m moving on.

[Yardstick]

Well it’ll be interesting to see what the data does. My guess is Florida’s deaths peaked at a record high just a few days ago and have just begun to fall off. I think that once the data has filled out, we’ll see that the deaths around this time were still fairly high and certainly higher than what the current incomplete data shows. But of course that could be wrong. And I’m not living in fear. I think the danger of both COVID and the vaccine have been massively overhyped. My only worry is that our society has been driven out of its mind by this whole stupid episode.

[Fledermaus]

Lies

[Paul R.]

Ah, thanks for the additional detail & more lucid explanation. That’s the best post on the subject I’ve seen anywhere.

(OTOH, I plead guilty to a rush job — my daughter had just called to let me know to pick her & Mom up.)

Your mention of the curve shape takes me back to several days ago when I first started asking about the FL numbers, because the fatalities curve’s acceleration and deceleration as posted on Worldometers seemed literally impossible, and by a large margin if one considered the cases curve. This both on the astonishing ramp up, of fatalities — no way! — and the abrupt peak and fall of same. I’ve been doing curve analysis all my adult life — I knew something had to be going on.

Also thanks for the IMHE reference: It clearly shows a more accurate estimate of the situation in FL, and also clearly shows FL is turning the corner in a positive direction.* I know they get a lot of flack for some of their very early on projections, but, since then they’ve generally been pretty accurate, 2-3 months out.

*Of course the lib rags don’t honestly include that information, they just report from the worst possible way of looking at the situation, and telling half-truths, if it benefits their agenda or their profits. Which behavior is not just limited to Covid, of course!

Back on topic, do you think my estimate of 1-2 months for the data to settle is in the ballpark? (I’m now sort of thinking give it 2 months. I assume those actual dates come off of death certificates, and, especially in a hectic & heavy workload situation, that might take some time.)

Thanks. And... it’s nice to have a rational conversation on here. :-)

[Paul R.]

Roger that, although I know of enough Covid fatalities and long term injuries to people around me (a rather larger group than Jo’s, I suspect) that I would change “only” to “biggest”.

[Yardstick]

Thanks, glad it was clear, and I will say that I had an advantage because I had written about this to a friend earlier yesterday so I already had most of the language worked out.

They had mentioned the worldometers data saying deaths were low and seemed to be leading the cases data. That struck me as odd so I took a look and sure enough that’s what the data showed. But I vaguely remembered that FL had changed their reporting method so I googled it and read a couple articles and ended up concluding that that would probably explain it. Then a little later when I saw this thread and your post I figured I’d say something since it was pretty fresh on my mind.

I agree a month or two is probably enough settling time for the data. Like you say it depends on paperwork processes playing out. If there were a way to “play back” the data for the last six months or so to see how it moved, you could really get a feel for the settling time, but that seems like a safe estimate.

BTW I used to do motion analysis using high-speed imagery...lots of looking at data curves in that world.

[dynoman]

This is why; https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/monoclonal-antibody-therapy/

[JoSixChip]

That was my thinking too, the timing is right. But still waiting for confirmation.

[ifinnegan]

“This is BS. Check worldometer, link below. Deaths have dropped significantly.”

Yes. Utter bs.

They just make it up.

Anti-DeSantis operation.

[Paul R.]

worldometers data saying deaths were low and seemed to be leading the cases data.

For me it was actually the steep rise in fatalities a bit earlier, but again leading the case data, and not by a small margin. That was clearly impossible unless:

1) A much more deadly variant was moving in, but was not yet dominating cases (but there were no other indications of that);

2) Fatalities data was being outright fabricated to attack DeSantis (tin foil theory: Clerical mischief to create spikes for headlines is quite doable if no one cries "foul", but major alterations of the 7 day average and curve shape in the manner observed require either massive numbers of fake death certificates or a change in reporting method);

3) The health (critical) care system in FL had collapsed (which it clearly had not);

4) Doctors were executing large numbers of Covid patients to attack DeSantis (extreme tin foil, but we have a contingent of FReepers who'd believe it in a heartbeat);

5) Indeed, a quirk in reporting method was in play.

Golly, I'd love to do a time lapse of some of these curves, but, I just don't consistently have the time, nor do I have a host to post them on.

[ETCM]

>>”Check worldometer, link below. Deaths have dropped significantly.”<<

As others have explained, it’s the way they report. They reported ZERO back on the 16th and another poster thought that meant no one died that day and everyone was lying.

Here’s my post back then:

https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/3985757/posts?page=50#50

That “zero” is now 208. And it will climb a bit more as data is added. But the numbers WILL fall. They might be falling already but because of the delays in FL’s reporting, the data doesn’t yet reflect the downward trend.

[Yardstick]

Good points.

*bump*

[Basket_of_Deplorables]

They have a free MAB site about a mile from me. I might go, as preventative.

Thanks, Ron Desantis!!!!