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U.S. Winter Outlook: Drier, warmer South, wetter North with return of La Nina [NOAA: others in first comment]
NOAA ^ | October 21, 2021 | US Gov.

Posted on 11/22/2021 7:52:42 AM PST by daniel1212

Warmer-than-average conditions are most likely across the Southern tier of the U.S. and much of the Eastern U.S. with the greatest likelihood of above-average temperatures in the Southeast.

Below-average temperatures are favored for southeast Alaska and the Pacific Northwest eastward to the northern Plains.

The Upper Mississippi Valley and small areas of the Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.

..wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in parts of the North, primarily in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and western Alaska. Drier-than-average conditions are favored in south-central Alaska, southern California, the Southwest, and the Southeast. (NOAA Climate.gov based on NWS CPC data)

Widespread severe to exceptional drought continues to dominate the western half of the continental U.S., Northern Plains, and the Missouri River Basin.

Drought conditions are forecast to persist and develop in the Southwest and Southern Plains.

The Pacific Northwest, northern California, the upper Midwest, and Hawaii are most likely to experience drought improvement.



TOPICS: Gardening; Health/Medicine; Outdoors; Weather
KEYWORDS: climate; cold; covid19; graphics; regions; snow; weather; winter
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Other NOAA maps:

NOAA-2022

NOAA-Dec.21-Feb.22 --------------------------------------------

From https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2021-2022-us-winter-forecast/1022887:

La Niña is once again predicted to shape part of the overall weather patterns this winter, but Pastelok said that the upcoming La Niña will be weaker than the one experienced last winter. This “opens up the door” for other elements to factor into the winter forecast, especially during the second half of the season.

There are also indications entering this winter season that, unlike last year, the polar vortex can be weaker. This could allow colder air from the Arctic to slide southward into the U.S. before the official start of meteorological winter, which is on Dec. 1. Astronomical winter, the first official day of winter, arrives on Tuesday, Dec. 21.

Residents across the northeastern U.S. might want to dig out their winter coats sooner rather than later as winter weather could make an early arrival across the region this year.

“This winter, I think, is going to be a colder one, at least for the interior sections from the Appalachians to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes,” Pastelok said. Last winter, temperatures across these areas were right around normal, but this year, the winter as a whole is likely to average 1 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit below normal. The first waves of cold air are anticipated to chill the Northeast in November ..

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https://www.fox5dc.com/weather/winter-outlook-2021-2022-cold-at-times-but-major-snows-unlikely:

--------------------------------------

https://www.farmersalmanac.com/extended-forecast:

Hope this helps.

1 posted on 11/22/2021 7:52:42 AM PST by daniel1212
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To: daniel1212

A lot of data here.
I’m not good at interpreting this sort of data.

But, clearly, we’re all going to die.


2 posted on 11/22/2021 7:57:25 AM PST by ClearCase_guy (Alec Baldwin has killed more people than the Jan 6 protesters. And he will serve less jail time.)
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To: daniel1212

Interesting - exactly the opposite of last month’s predictions of another potential deep freeze in February, except for Farmer’s Almanac. I bought a generator anyway and will give it a good workout before it’s needed.

On that note, can anybody tell me whether I can use the 30 amp outlet on the generator that’s marked “RV use only” to bring power into the house? Will that screw up the appliances I plug into the extension cord? Be gentle, at least I’m taking the advice I give my clients: “I’d rather have you ask me, ‘should I do that?’, than call me and say, “I just did that - that’s okay, right?...”.


3 posted on 11/22/2021 7:58:19 AM PST by jagusafr ( )
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To: daniel1212

I studied all the charts and concluded it will either be warmer than normal or colder than normal. Then, in the bonus round, I found it will either be wetter than normal or drier than normal.


4 posted on 11/22/2021 8:02:01 AM PST by ProtectOurFreedom (“…in any great disaster, there's a Harvard man in the middle of it.” ~ Thomas Sowell)
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To: daniel1212

Yea and 2 weeks after the first prognostication from NOAA that we wouldnt see rain in Norcal until December we got hit with the biggest October stormsystem in a coupla decades.

The ENSO cycle is a guide, not a bible.


5 posted on 11/22/2021 8:03:57 AM PST by Regulator (It's fraud, Jim)
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To: daniel1212

Nope. caterpillars are all black this year.


6 posted on 11/22/2021 8:06:26 AM PST by eyedigress (Trump is my President! )
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To: jagusafr

Plug your fridge into it now and see if the surge trips the breaker.

If not you are good to go.

Use a ceramic heater in times of outages and cordon off a living area.


7 posted on 11/22/2021 8:11:04 AM PST by eyedigress (Trump is my President! )
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To: daniel1212

Here in the Carolinas it seems colder than usual. We hit 25 degrees tomorrow night, which is normal in early January.


8 posted on 11/22/2021 8:13:18 AM PST by struggle
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Mark


9 posted on 11/22/2021 8:13:53 AM PST by Bigg Red (Trump will be sworn in under a shower of confetti made from the tattered remains of the Rat Party.)
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To: daniel1212

The woolly worms in Kentucky beg to differ...


10 posted on 11/22/2021 8:22:31 AM PST by WKUHilltopper
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To: ClearCase_guy

Our weather this winter will be normal.

This is due to climate change!


11 posted on 11/22/2021 8:24:58 AM PST by cgbg (A kleptocracy--if they can keep it. Think of it as the Cantillon Effect in action.)
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To: daniel1212
Seems like La Nina has been getting most of the action in recent years. That El Nino kid must be slacking.


12 posted on 11/22/2021 8:26:43 AM PST by fidelis (Ecce Crucem Domini! Fugite partes adversae! Vicit Leo de tribu Juda, Radix David! Alleluia! )
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To: ClearCase_guy
" A lot of data here. I’m not good at interpreting this sort of data. But, clearly, we’re all going to die. "

Yes, your interpretation in parody is affirmed by the [fear-mongering] MSM, which [presumably] knows which way the winds will blow. But which but cannot perceive the prophetic foreboding signs of the times, and having no fear of God, does not perceive the eternal consequences of forsaking the direction set forth in the map which directs souls to the celestial city.

https://tubitv.com/movies/601649/pilgrim-s-progress-1978

13 posted on 11/22/2021 8:27:50 AM PST by daniel1212 ( Turn to the Lord Jesus as a damned+destitute sinner, trust Him to save + be baptized + follow Him!)
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To: WKUHilltopper
Drier-than-average conditions are favored in south-central Alaska, southern California, the Southwest, and...

We're in the friggin' desert. Dry is normal.

14 posted on 11/22/2021 8:29:19 AM PST by Don Corleone (leave the gun, take the canolis)
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To: daniel1212

Looks like these predictions are all over the map...


15 posted on 11/22/2021 8:29:27 AM PST by RckyRaCoCo (Please Pray For My Brother Ken.)
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To: daniel1212

Remember when it was just “weather”, before they started giving names to everything.


16 posted on 11/22/2021 8:31:08 AM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: RckyRaCoCo
I prefer the Spanish Channel Version:


17 posted on 11/22/2021 8:32:10 AM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: dfwgator

Nice……weather map.


18 posted on 11/22/2021 8:33:13 AM PST by windsorknot
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To: jagusafr
"Interesting - exactly the opposite of last month’s predictions of another potential deep freeze in February, except for Farmer’s Almanac."

The latter has a worse record than the ever-warming NOAA.

Research says If you are not intending on running your central air conditioning or do not have central air then chances are a 30 amp generator is perfect to power your home.

19 posted on 11/22/2021 8:33:40 AM PST by daniel1212 ( Turn to the Lord Jesus as a damned+destitute sinner, trust Him to save + be baptized + follow Him!)
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To: windsorknot

What map?


20 posted on 11/22/2021 8:33:53 AM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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