For the EU I don’t care, for NATO I support the idea that it is already too large for no good reason. Although your scenario is purely hypothetical. I’d first see Southwest of the US gone.
Maybe twenty years ago I’d have been more concerned about the Mexican colonists trying to wrest control of the US Southwest back to Mexico. But now Mexico is such a mess and the Southwest has become a bastion of American independence and sovereignty.
Anyone trying to make Texas Mexican again is going to get shot, shot some more, hung, and then fed to someone’s hogs.
In any case, I am noticing you have less of an objection to the Oblast joining the EU or NATO than you do Ukraine.
Why is that? I’m just curious as to your perspective here and am not going to argue with you about it. Promise.