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To: gas_dr

“There is currently no clear variant on the horizon”

I’d assess that there is extremely little room left for another variant to run, even if there was one in the wings.

The BA.2 sub-variant of Omicron is around 50% more infectious than the original Omicron, but apparently about the same for severity or immune evasiveness. It is expected to become the dominant lineage (a growing slice of the shrinking pie), as it has in other areas where it got an earlier start (like Denmark and South Africa, where cases continued dropping, while BA.2 became dominant).

It is likely to only make a minor marginal stretch out to the tail of the Omicron wave. So far, nothing noticeable.

I too, think we are (effectively) done with all the hoopla and over-reaching restrictions. I expect case levels to scrape low, like last Summer, before Delta.

We will probably see some seasonal resurgence in the future, and an ongoing vaccination effort, but I think that the restrictions will drop, and folks will be heading back into the office in earnest next month.


15 posted on 02/23/2022 8:55:57 PM PST by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo
We will probably see some seasonal resurgence in the future, and an ongoing vaccination effort

Seems likely. The main questions are. How long does your immunity last? From a vaccine? Or from an infection? How will they hold against variants?

We are assuming that this pandemic will end similar to the Spanish flu 100 years ago but there's no guarantee that will be the case. I am not an expert in this field so I cannot provide an educated guess. All I can share is my opinion.

I am hoping that this thing will end with a whimper. But I think that there's a variant lurking on the other aide of the world that is just about to explode. We will probably see it in 6-9 months and this may turn out to be a seasonal thing. But with the population having some prior immunity, hopefully the next season won't be as devastating.

16 posted on 02/23/2022 9:12:45 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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