It's much more than that.
In scientific terminology, a confirmed observation is a fact.
Facts in this case include geological strata, fossils, DNA, isotope decay rates, etc.
In scientific terms, an explanation which can be falsified is called a hypothesis, not a "wild ass guess".
If a hypothesis passes tests intended to falsify it, then it can be accepted as a confirmed theory.
An example is Darwin's 1859 evolution hypotheses.
Since 1859 it has been tested and modified many times, but his basic ideas of 1) descent with modifications and 2) natural selection as driving evolution are today considered confirmed theories with many observed facts.
Darwin did not know about the fact that modifications to appearances were driven by the computer code in the DNA, his so-called “theory” lacks this knowledge, but the public schools still push it because it negates the notion of an agent cause of nature.
As a human we are required to believe in a Creator, in a Redeemer, and in a Judge. If one does not believe in any of these, there will be hell to pay.