Posted on 11/18/2022 7:13:43 PM PST by UMCRevMom@aol.com
The 96-missile barrage fired across Ukraine on Tuesday was Russia’s biggest aerial attack of the war so far. But it followed months of assertions by Western and Ukrainian officials that Moscow’s stockpile of missiles and other weapons was rapidly dwindling.
Whether the assault on infrastructure targets was long planned, as Ukrainian commanders say they believe, or served as a deadly response to Kyiv’s recapture of the city of Kherson last week, the widespread attack raises questions about how much Russia’s arsenal may be depleted and whether Moscow will endure by finding alternative sources of weapons.
The Ukrainian defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said last month that Russia had burned though nearly 70 percent of its prewar cache of the kinds of missiles that were largely used in Tuesday’s attack: Iskander, Kalibr, and air-launched cruise missiles. At the time, Mr. Reznikov said that Russia had only 609 of those missiles left, though none of the figures could be independently verified.
An intelligence report by the British Defense Ministry dated Oct. 16 said that a large-scale attack on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure six days earlier had most likely degraded Russia’s long-range missile stocks, “which is likely to constrain their ability to strike the volume of targets they desire in future.”
Since spring, Pentagon officials have suggested that Moscow was low on precision-guided missiles, having run through its supply “at a pretty fast clip,” as a national security spokesman, John F. Kirby, said in May.
How, then, did Russia manage to launch what Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, described as perhaps “the widest-scale missile attack since the beginning of the war”?
Here are four possible scenarios.
1. Russia is turning to Iran and North Korea for weapons, U.S. officials say.
At the Pentagon on Wednesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said that Russia was struggling to replenish its missile stockpile to keep up with battlefield demands, “so they’re reaching out to Iran, they’re reaching out to North Korea.”
“I do think that those countries will probably provide them some capability,” Mr. Austin said.
The swarms of Iranian-made drones that are attacking Ukraine — most notably, the long-range Shahed series that can carry an 88-pound warhead and crash into targets in “kamikaze” strikes — have been Russia’s newest weapon in the conflict.
The Ukrainian Air Force said that it had shot down ten Shahed drones during Tuesday’s attacks.
This month, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Forces Command said that it was also expected that Iran would send ballistic missiles to Russia. The spokesman, Yurii Ihnat, said that it was unknown how many missiles Tehran might give Moscow, but he added that the weapons likely to be sent would be “fairly recently” manufactured, with a range of about 300 kilometers to 700 kilometers.
The United States has accused North Korea of secretly shipping rockets and artillery shells to Russia, although Mr. Kirby said this month that it was unclear if the munitions had been delivered.
Both North Korea and Iran have denied supplying Russia with weapons since the start of the war. Russia may be building more missiles.
2. Last month, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia announced domestic efforts to ramp up production of equipment and systems “associated with providing support for the special military operation” in Ukraine.
Janes, a defense intelligence firm, said that Russia very likely stockpiled microchips and other technology necessary to build precision missiles before invading Ukraine in February — possibly starting years ago, given Moscow’s deteriorating relations with the West after its illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.
The Janes analysis, provided on Thursday to The New York Times, noted that such microelectronic components were also used for civilian purposes and that Russia may have obtained them through third parties, such as states or private entities that were willing to risk the penalty of U.S. sanctions if caught.
3. Russia probably began producing high numbers of Iskanders, Kalibrs, and cruise missiles before the invasion, the analysis said.
“They are likely being produced as we speak, since the economy is on a near war footing and many plants associated with the Russian military industrial complex are working in three shifts and even on weekends,” the Janes analysis said. Russia is using air defense missiles to launch attacks, Ukraine says.
In a smaller follow-up strike on Thursday, Russia fired at least ten S-300 antiaircraft guided missiles against cities near the front line, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.
Built by Russia and exported across Asia and Eastern Europe — including to Iran and Syria, and to Crimea — the S-300 surface-to-air rocket was first designed in 1978 for protection against incoming air assaults. More recent generations of the missile can hit aircraft, drones and ballistic missiles.
But Russia’s increasing reliance on the S-300 as an attack weapon against ground targets in Ukraine has been one signal to military officials and experts that it is running out of its cruise missiles or other, more conventional offensive weapons.
4. Russia may have been holding some weapons in reserve for war against NATO.
Few, if any, Western officials have a clear account of the status of Russia’s arsenal or know precisely how many missiles remain in its stockpile, said Mark. F. Cancian, a former Marine and White House weapons strategist who is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
But, he said, Western militaries believe that Russia has long kept a reserve of missiles and other weapons on hold in case it goes to war with NATO.
“They apparently have a withhold for a notional NATO attack,” Mr. Cancian said on Thursday, “which we would regard as absurd, but they regard it as a real possibility.”
“So they’re holding back some part of their inventory for that,” he said.
It is not known if Russia may have depended on those reserves for Tuesday’s strikes.
The post How Was Russia Able to Launch Its Biggest Aerial Attack on Ukraine? appeared first on New York Times.
They probably have help.Iran...North Korea....
“…2. Last month, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia announced domestic efforts to ramp up production of equipment and systems “associated with providing support for the special military operation” in Ukraine.
Janes, a defense intelligence firm, said that Russia very likely stockpiled microchips and other technology necessary to build precision missiles before invading Ukraine in February — possibly starting years ago, given Moscow’s deteriorating relations with the West after its illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.
The Janes analysis, provided on Thursday to The New York Times, noted that such microelectronic components were also used for civilian purposes and that Russia may have obtained them through third parties, such as states or private entities that were willing to risk the penalty of U.S. sanctions if caught.
3. Russia probably began producing high numbers of Iskanders, Kalibrs, and cruise missiles before the invasion, the analysis said.
“They are likely being produced as we speak, since the economy is on a near war footing and many plants associated with the Russian military industrial complex are working in three shifts and even on weekends,” the Janes analysis said. Russia is using air defense missiles to launch attacks, Ukraine says….”
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Russia, unlike the U.S., has not allowed it industrial/manufacturing capabilities to atrophy. Our now “woke” CIA likely will have difficulties assessing what in being manufactured domestically in Russia and the locations where that manufacturing is happening.
Russia obtained licensing from IRAN to produce the Iranian designed drones in Russia. Anyone who thinks the drones they are using in Ukraine must all be imported from Iran is living in a dream world. I’m fairly certain that months ago they were setting up lines to mass produce those drones in vast numbers — and are running those lines now. They are not that complex.
Nothing will stop the Russians from taking out the entire electric grid if they so choose to.
It’s time for the Ukrainians to have the means to hit back at the Russians where they live. Why should Ukraine suffer alone in this war?
Why do people seem to assume that Russia is unable to produce its own missile supply? They are not the Soviet Union anymore, but they are not exactly bangladesh.
The Katyusha (Russian: Катю́ша, IPA: [kɐˈtʲuʂə] (listen)) is a type of rocket artillery first built and fielded by the Soviet Union in World War II. Multiple rocket launchers such as these deliver explosives to a target area more intensively than conventional artillery, but with lower accuracy and requiring a longer time to reload. They are fragile compared to artillery guns, but are cheap, easy to produce, and usable on almost any chassis. The Katyushas of World War II, the first self-propelled artillery mass-produced by the Soviet Union,[1] were usually mounted on ordinary trucks. This mobility gave the Katyusha, and other self-propelled artillery, another advantage: being able to deliver a large blow all at once, and then move before being located and attacked with counter-battery fire.
The Russians and General Winter are coming and, as a patriotic American I do not care one whit about the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians and Saint George Washington Zelensky partnered with the Deep State on the coup against President Trump.
Because they are RUZZIANS!!
Maybe you should travel there. Your tedious conversation should bore some of them to death.🤡
Why should Ukraine suffer alone in this war?
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Corrupted Ukrainian leadership, negotiations are not surrender, nothing dishonorable in opening negotiations especially when Ukraine’s infrastructure, economy, manufacturing, currency, and exports are being decimated. The decimation of their electric grid will have huge humanitarian consequences, the corrupted little beggar Zelensky needs to be ousted.
The Ukrainians and Saint George Washington Zelensky partnered with the Deep State on the coup against President Trump.
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Well said, the Ukrainian government has long been known in Europe to be the most corrupted nation on the planet. You are who you hang with, are you listening Joe? The war cheerleaders must carry on, destruction of Ukraine assured.
The question remains , Why, why fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian?
“Nothing will stop the Russians from taking out the entire electric grid if they so choose to.”
How long? It’s been 6 weeks since Russia started trying, and everything they have done has accomplished nothing more than sporadic blackouts.
According to what I read, it was really IRAN who launched the missiles, as Russia has been out of missiles for over 6 months.
Russians ran out of missiles in March.
“Why do people seem to assume that Russia is unable to produce its own missile supply? They are not the Soviet Union anymore, but they are not exactly bangladesh.”
Soviet economy was the size of Americas. 2022 Russia’s is smaller than Canada’s. They have some productive capacity, but they are no longer a great power.
Almost everything they have used in Ukraine have been relics produced in the Soviet period. When those run out so to does Russia’s ability to wage war.
Ukraine - Switching The Lights Off
The careful destruction of energy systems in Ukraine continues.
From today’s clobber list as provided by the Defense Ministry of Russia:
On 17 November, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched a concentrated strike, using high-precision long-range air-, sea- and ground-based weapons, at the facilities of military control, defence industry, as well as related fuel and energy infrastructure of Ukraine.
The goals of the strike have been reached.
All the missiles have accurately stricken the assigned facilities.
I have no idea if the last line is true but it does not matter much.
The targeting of 330 kilovolt transformers in various switching stations has cut some 50% of the distribution capability of Ukraine’s electricity network. These transformers weigh up to 200 tons. There are no replacements. You do not buy them at the next corner but will have to order them with years of lead time. As far as I can tell Russia is currently the only producer of transformers of that type.
“Russians ran out of missiles in March.”
The high-end Kalibr precision guided missiles, yes.
The recent attacks have been with repurposed anti-ship and S-300 anti-air missiles. Less accurate and smaller payloads, but enough to have a psychological effect on civilians under attack.
How long? It’s been 6 weeks since Russia started trying, and everything they have done has accomplished nothing more than sporadic blackouts.
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Get off the western media whiskey bottle. Ukraine is officially at a 48-55 percent grid outage, when they hit 80 percent, they enter the Stone Age.
“The targeting of 330 kilovolt transformers in various switching stations has cut some 50%. You do not buy them at the next corner but will have to order them with years of lead time”
That’s the problem with Russians. They live in the corrupt system where any project requires twelve bribes and every action will be done by someone half-way through a bottle of vodka.
The capitalist world works different, and they don’t understand that. Call Siemens and some very efficient Germans will have a new transformer installed by Monday.
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