I agree that we can find new work, but my question remains: What will that work look like? It’s also worth considering the impact on folks who don’t handle the transition well. America is full of millions if not tens of millions of down-and-out folks on drugs and alcohol and suffering depression, in which the shift from physical labor to an information economy has arguably been a huge factor in explaining their plight. Now AI is coming for the information economy workers...
What will people be doing in 10 years? How will they earn a living?
“People asked these same questions during the Industrial Revolution, when machines replaced humans on farms. Milton Friedman points out, in one of his books, America went from 95 percent farmers in 1790 to 5 percent farmers in 1910. Some economists predicted mass unemployment during this transition phase, but it didn’t happen. Human labor always shifts into other, often unseen, areas when technology takes their jobs. In other words, we shouldn’t worry about it.”
In response, I agree. I try to simplify the transition in this way—displacement does not cause collective unemployment, only individual unemployment. Overall, the effect of technological change on employment is determined by growth and productivity change. If the tech causes growth, there is an increase in employment opportunities—maybe leisure industry, maybe tech systems jobs, can’t say. Then again, I could be way off. Thanks for your insightful post.