Posted on 03/27/2023 12:10:03 PM PDT by Eleutheria5
I avoid any objects bigger than my hands LOL
jm..it will be a global event.
Nobody knows when it will go and IF it will even be a VEI 8 event.
Like I posted. If you want a couple of REAL good youtube sites to watch it is GeologyHub or USGS.
The USGS, like the Army Corps of Engineers are two very good organizations.
Thank you for the info. I learned about the Yellowstone Caldera some years ago on a National Geographic special.
Have to say it was pretty frighting . When that thing goes, you’re right, it’s going to be a bad day for everybody.
JM..from one of the retired professors I talk to.
Likelyhood of eruption
Yellowstone-abt 15% eruptable material. Eruption likley hood? NONE
Then down the list to even Long Valley caldera. Likely hood of eruption? NOT likely. That ones eruptable material is at less than 25% and the systems magma chambers are separate.
The most dangerous volcano on the planet earth?
Campi Flegrei. It has over 60% eruptable material and the likely hood rating of eruption is EXTREME. It is a super volcanic field of several vents that have erupted in history. Vesuvius being one that is on that chain of volcanoes.
The thing about Flegri is that it was sealed by a type of lava that is known to be a type of cement like the Romans used for building. So the thing vented in the past by outside venting systems which left the pressure release...I.E Vesuvius.
So...the likely hood of eruption is rated at extreme. And guess what? Naples is within the caldera. Matter of fact, there are boat harbors there that have no water because of the uplift of the area. The ground in some places is so hot people cant walk on it.
What is the population of Naples?
But to say the Yellowstone Caldera isn't going to erupt, even at the odds you posted to a layman like me would be the same as saying we'll never be hit by an asteroid.
The thing has blown in the past and more than likely will again. Can science really be so sure? I hope so. At least I hope not. Not until I get my mortgage paid off. Then again maybe that won't be such a bad thing.
Population of Naples: 2,179,000.
Been pushing this narrative my entire life...
Yes Yellowstone is a Caldera, and yes sooner or later its going to blow, and when it does its going to be a bad bad day... Yes its due for another eruption based on past cycles.. .and one of these days it is going to blow...
However, there is ABSOLUTELY nothing at this point anyone can do to prevent it so, live your life folks.
When they say likely hood of eruption it doesnt mean it will never erupt again. It means at the present time or near future.
This is the problem. People get their information from panic sites that are actually click bait sites.
Earthquakes and Volcanoes are kind of a hobby of mine since once I donated a huge collection of rocks to MSU and got to know a couple of (now retired) geology professors. One, who’s specific focus was once on Ilopango Volcano in Central America.
They both now focus on studies on the fairly new discovery of the Mid Continental Rift in North America. The largest known lava flow in the world. Some suspect the caldera is under the big lake.
Kudos to your expertise in the field.
Then when do you estimate an eruption event of the Yellowstone Caldera could happen?
In our life time or would it just be to hard to accurately predict?
Not in our lifetime. Must remember..it take in excess of 25% of eruptable magma to become a concern and Yellowstone has only about 15%. And one must remember this...even then, a VEI 7/8/9 is not a sure thing. Yellowstone has had many smaller eruptions in its past.
Volcanoes are a study that is in its infancy. Only since 1883 has it been studied to an extent. Before that, volcanoes were just a natural event that was feared and admired...they had no idea why the weather had gone mad.
BTW jm..one, Laki, was only about a vei 4 or so, and it killed thousands worldwide simply by the amount of gas it put up into the air. It is not only the size, but how long and how much and what it brings to the surface.
BTW..the weather we are experiencing these days? I believe it is the result of the Tonga eruption last year. The highest blast ever recorded from a eruption and many think it went higher than even Tambora did in the early 1800s
Take a minute and watch this if you please. This guy uses USGS and scientific information to inform. He lists all volcanoes worldwide and report on activities from them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYYqFbBalKU
Thanks for your post. That’s a lot of information to digest but I feel reassured in your assessments. I’ll check out that video. The Tonga Eruption? I hadn’t heard of that one but I can see how it would, for a time effect the climate, much as the Mount Pinatubo Eruption did in 1991.
Only something as powerful as a massive volcanic eruption as that has the ability to effect the climate. Certainly not us mere mortals. We can pollute a river or an underground water source but to think we can effect the climate is hubris for sure.
When ever the Greta Thunberg’s of the world start their Cassandra like warnings I’m reminded of a scene in the 1930’s movie “The Hurricane’’, a story about the clash of two cultures in Tahiti at the height of a raging hurricane a group of people think they can flee the storm and actor Raymond Massey bellows to them “You’re mad! You think you can make it?! He screams at the group “Well go outside and listen to God laugh at you!’’
That’s what happens ultimately in nature.
It only takes a volcanic eruption or an earthquake to show you who really is in charge on this planet.
You are 100% correct.
We are ants. Nothing we can do will change nature. Ever.
There is some disagreement going on within the geology community whether a major earthquake along the Cascadian subduction fault will trigger Volcanoes along the Cascade range.
1700, the last time that fault broke, it did not. But at that time, most of those volcanoes might not have been showing any signs of unrest...they dont know.
Here is a funny tidbit for you. Tambora erupted and caused the year without a summer...1815. How do they know that gasses and ash had circled the globe? By paintings in the London Art gallery. Sunsets painted by artists showed colors unusual...purple tinge in them, etc.
Follow that guy of whom I posted that link to. He is good and seems to be committed to the facts instead of panic.
Till next time.
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