As Inflation Cools, Expect A More Competitive Housing Market

Forbes ^ | 06/23/23 | Daryl Fairweather

[millenial4freedom]

Now that inflation is waning, there is hope that mortgage rates will fall to 5% in 2024. These lower rates would make borrowing to buy a home less expensive, but they could make the housing market much harsher for first-time homebuyers. That’s because a drop in mortgage rates would cause an increase in demand, and more demand without more supply is a recipe for competition. Like in 2021, we could see a spike in bidding wars, with the typical home selling above its asking price in record time. First-time buyers should prepare for a challenging road ahead as inflation dies down.

[millenial4freedom]

I'm not sure if this is fear porn from the realtor lobby, but it seems like regardless of what the Fed does, the young are screwed.

[ClearCase_guy]

General 1950s view — The American Dream! The man gets a job, the woman stays home, they buy a nice house in the suburbs and raise a big family. Life is great!

General 1970s view — You can have it all! The man and the woman both have jobs, they have a nice house in the suburbs and raise a small family. Life is a challenge, but they make it work.

General 2000s view — Times are tough. Double income, no kids. It helps to have a part-time job too. Hopefully things will get better soon.

General 2020s view — Kids don’t socialize, can’t meet anyone. They won’t get married or have a family. Owning a home is out of the question. Heck, they can’t even afford an apartment. Living in Mom’s basement sucks but social media helps pass the time until you die.

[fireman15]

My wife fell off the top of a ladder painting trim on the outside of our house last year. She broke her leg and had to have her knee surgically rebuilt. This caused a delay in our plans. We thought we missed the boat completely, but it seems like we have had a reprieve. I put up a for sale by owner sign and a rudimentary web page. I also listed it on a couple of FSBO sites which got picked up by Zillow, Trulia, and etc... We have hundreds of views and have been besieged by real estate agents and mortgage brokers. I was planning on listing it on the MLS with a flat rate listing service, but it doesn’t seem like that will be necessary. We have a serious buyer traveling a thousand miles from Orange County CA to view it on Sunday.

I have been told that I priced it a little too low by a couple of the agents that visited came to look at it. That probably explains the feeding frenzy that seems to be going on, along with the perception that people selling on their own or easy pickings. There is much less inventory in our area as compared to last year.

[WKUHilltopper]

2030s—you just die. It’s your patriotic duty as decreed by your demi gods running your one world government.

[ConservativeInPA]

Just a few thoughts: 1.) Nothing substantial has been done to bring inflation under control. Until the root of inflation is addressed we will see vacillating inflation rates above the Fed’s 2% target. The root is unconstrained government spending that’s greater than tax revenues. 2.) America needs to get used to interest rates. I’m not saying interest rates shouldn’t be lower, but rather interest rates have been artificially low. Interest is a good thing, a free ride isn’t. 3.) On the interest rate side of things, we need a consistent market driven policy. 4.) The Fed will not conquer inflation with interest rate hikes. They are not even close to what the Taylor Rule suggests. As long as fiscal policy remains broken, the Fed is fighting a losing battle. 5.) I am thoroughly convinced that the long held view that inflation can be control via interest rate hikes is incorrect. It’s a fiscal policy problem.

[jeffc]

Inflation may cool, but high prices are here to stay. I’m going to assume that was intentional...

[millenial4freedom]

I agree with your argument - which makes me skeptical of Fairweather’s prediction. Can we really get to sub-2% inflation without a material increase in the unemployment rate?

The sun is always shining to some ‘economists’.

[fireman15]

General 2020s view — Kids don't socialize, can't meet anyone. They won't get married or have a family. Owning a home is out of the question. Heck, they can't even afford an apartment. Living in Mom's basement sucks but social media helps pass the time until you die.

We have met a few younger people who seem to be doing very well and have a few in our extended family who have already purchased houses and started families. But yes, the person traveling a great distance to come view our home on Sunday is a retired lawyer in her 60s currently living in a more expensive market. Interest rates do not seem to be as big of a problem for her. Also, some of the mortgage brokers we have spoken with seem to have the ability to provide rates quite a bit lower than average along with various buy down programs that lower the payments for a couple of years so that hopefully rates will come down a bit more.

[Macoozie]

“Now that inflation is waning”

The destruction is done-
They’ve devalued the currency/savings of the American people by about another 20%.
Labor is fungible, and no matter what, ya’ll can be replaced.
Folks WILL NOT return to the office, because the office is no more.
Homes are 8-10X the current income.

Once Reserve Currency status takes absolute hold . . .

The Revolution can begin.
As many have no stake in the system anyway,
Let It All Burn

[moovova]

"I have been told that I priced it a little too low by a couple of the agents that visited came to look at it."

That's a common tactic among brokers. "Oh, you've priced it too low. I can get you more money!" Then they list your home, it sells (usually by ANOTHER broker), and you subtract the 6/7% commission the listing agent is charging...resulting in less to you than if you'd sold it "by owner".

However, always offer to pay them 3% if they bring a buyer. That's probably what you'd agree to if you go with a flat fee service.

[AAABEST]

Now that inflation is waning, there is hope that mortgage rates will fall to 5% in 2024.

lol... who's the joke writer? Then again, Forbes has become a Chinese swamp-rag.

[whitney69]

When Trump left office, the average rate according to Rocket Mortgage for a 30-year fixed was about 3.72%. As of June 22, 2023, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.12%, the FHA 30-year fixed rate is 7.14%, the VA 30-year fixed rate is 7.00% and the jumbo 30-year fixed rate is 6.40%.

Is it going to decline? According to Forbes, while predicting mortgage rates for the next five years is a tall order, especially considering the unprecedented fluctuations over the past year, experts say the low housing inventory will be a key factor in where rates go over the long term. I feel that the low housing inventory is a simple problem if looked at. The movie said if you build it they will come. But they’re not building houses as prices are holding high so the inventory is reduced to older housing that they can actually sell. Everything is recycled. Thus they don’t have the worth to build houses they can’t sell at inflated prices. No rocket science there. No market, no fall of the mortgage rates so the mortgage people can survive at their needs.

wy69

[minnesota_bound]

I read today that home sales are down -26%

[Starboard]

Now that inflation is waning

**************

The rate may be slowing but there's still inflation on top of inflation, the combined effects of which are starting to be felt by consumers, especially with respect to shrinking disposable incomes (i.e., what little money is left after paying for the necessities of daily life, taxes, etc.).

[Starboard]

“Inflation may cool, but high prices are here to stay.”

**************

Along with shortages. We are entering a very different economic landscape. The days of cheap money, cheap energy and cheap labor are gone. Ever increasing government regulations will only add to our problems.

Buckle up. Rough ride ahead.

[AAABEST]

Ues, but prices have barely moved. What’s that tell you?

Also, we’re in a place where if interest rates back off, demand on the already low inventory will explode.

IMO only time, changes in leadership and changes to our collective behavior will fix this... not simple interest rate hikes.

[Worldtraveler once upon a time]

--- "As Inflation Cools, Expect A More Competitive Housing Market"

Consider the language. "Inflation cools" but does not stop means "inflation rises, albeit more slowly" (so it's alleged).

Putting this into a similar domain, "stealing less" still means stealing. Just less or -- ta-da -- MORE SLOWLY.

As one simply examines the language itself as used by Forbes and similar media, the intent is to make "bad" into "not so bad," but "not so bad" isn't "good."

[dfwgator]

Also we see institutional investors scooping up properties, keeping the supply of homes low, for the average buyer.

[wildcard_redneck]

They will outrageously lie right up to the burst of the housing bubble.

[fireman15]

That's a common tactic among brokers. “Oh, you've priced it too low. I can get you more money!” Then they list your home, it sells (usually by ANOTHER broker), and you subtract the 6/7% commission the listing agent is charging...resulting in less to you than if you'd sold it “by owner”.

Yes, I wasn't sure whether to trust anything that agents have been telling me. We based our asking price on multiple nearby comparable homes both recently sold and still on the market.

The 6/7% commission you are referring to is likely for both the seller's and buyer's agent's commissions combined. We have had multiple agents offer to list and market it for a 1% fee. My wife and I just do not want to lose control of the sale of our house. We have been offering a 2% buyers agent fee. We are going to be using a flat rate real estate lawyer with a good reputation who is the mayor of a neighboring community to close the deal.

Here is one of the fliers that a mortgage broker sent us yesterday to put out at our upcoming open house. It gives out more personal information than I normally like to share here, but he claims that he can get buyers a 5% rate right now and prequalify people with less income than his competitors can. I still take it with a grain of salt. But he seems to be a very personable guy and gave us other helpful information.