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Prior to deleting my social media, I wrote a piece on this. Since it’s languishing on my hard drive, I’ll post it here for FReepers:

The Lost Colony of Roanoke and a Reasonable Theory for Why They Left

Necessity may be the Mother of Invention, but sometimes the solutions to puzzles are revealed in the strangest of ways. I have drafted some fine speeches and had my share of revelations while in the shower (of all places), but the topic of this article - the Lost Colony of Roanoke Island - oddly popped up in my head while listening to the news on September 4, 2019.

I cannot recall the origin of my interest in the Lost Colony of Roanoke, other than to speculate it probably came about as a result of my youthful interest in topics such as Bigfoot, UFOs and lost cultures of the ancient Americas: Incas, Mayans, Aztecs and the Clovis. As such, it may have been spurred by Leonard Nimoy’s In Search Of series which so captivated my imagination. But 30 years ago there was very little about the lost colony (pre-internet). Speculation is rife today even among archaeologists, but their focus is upon where the colony went as opposed to answering the question of “Why?” they left in the first place.

Rather than an “unknown” word speculated about in numerous articles and documentary programs over the years - reflecting the rather poor state of factual information on the topic - I learned just this evening that the word “CROATOAN” found carved in a post at the abandoned colony actually DID refer to something tangible and John White knew it: To the south of Roanoke Island on the Grand Banks is an island which is home to the Croatan tribe of Indians and was, in fact, named on John White’s maps of the 16th century as “Croatoan Island.”

I came to understand that this was well-known in archaeological & historical circles, with it and theories of their fate outlined here by National Geographic. Media being what it is, I dismissed the misinformation of prior text & programming after reading several articles on archaeological studies of the Carolinas islands and wondered aloud:

If not “where”, then why did they leave the island?

A brief recap of the history of the topic is in order:

In defiance of Spanish claims to North America there were 3 English expeditions to Roanoke Island in the 16th century, also in search of gold and other resources. The original settlement of Roanoke came about in 1584 after Queen Elizabeth I granted charter to Sir Walter Raleigh to establish a colony in America. Captain’s Philip Amadas and Arthur Barlow were the first to survey Roanoke Island and are recorded to have found it suitable for a colony. The second expedition comprised 108 soldiers under Raleigh, who placed the ‘colonists’ in the charge of his cousin, Sir Richard Grenville, 23 years prior to the first permanent English settlement of Jamestown and 36 years before the historical Mayflower Pilgrims landed in Massachusetts and founded the Plymouth Colony. Under-supplied and ill-suited for self-sufficiency, the colonists ultimately depended upon the local Indians for sustenance.

In light of the supply problems, Grenville moved the colony to Virginia and returned to Britain for supplies, leaving the colonists in the charge of Captain Ralph Lane as governor. Unfortunately Grenville’s return was postponed and relations with the Indians with whom the colony shared the island were pensive. The murder of Algonquin Chief Wingina certainly exacerbated tensions. Coincidentally, the undeclared Anglo-Spanish War had engulfed Spanish settlements & shipping in the region and England dispatched Sir Francis Drake to raid and plunder Spanish possessions in the West Indies. To the colonists’ good fortune, after Sir Francis Drake’s successful raid upon St. Augustine in February of 1586 he later came upon a harbor near the struggling colony while making his way up the coast and was discovered the first of June by Lane’s subordinate, Captain Stafford. Once it was determined that the ships sighted from on-far were friendly, contact was made and in a letter delivered by Stafford, Drake generously-offered the colony boats, supplies, munitions and clothing. But with self-inflicted tensions making relations with local Indian tribes untenable and survival uncertain without relocation, a furious storm prompted a drastic decision by Lane: After only 11 months in the New World the entirety of the settlers accompanied Drake on his return to Britain, setting sail June 19, 1596, arriving in Portsmouth the following month. When Grenville’s supply ships landed a mere 2 weeks after the Drake fleet’s departure, they found the fort abandoned. To maintain Britain’s claim to the island he found abandoned, Grenville left behind 15 well-armed men with 2 years’ worth of supplies to secure the fort.

The very next year, Raleigh commissioned yet another expedition despite waning support and Governor John White was charged with the 3rd expedition comprised of 3 ships, resettling the site of the prior expedition on Roanoke Island with just over 100 civilian colonists, naming it the Cittie of Raleigh. It was recorded that they had found the earthworks of Lane’s fort “rased down” or leveled, the site abandoned. There was no sign of Grenville’s 15 men or their supplies, save for one bleached skeleton. They rebuilt the overgrown fort and refortified its ramparts. The colonists were ill-prepared for living off the land and ultimately found themselves facing a major problem of inadequate provisions to sustain the colony.

White sailed to England in 1587 to resupply the colony, ostensibly due to there being no time to plant crops; his return was unfortunately-delayed due to the the Anglo-Spanish war (his ship was commandeered by the British Crown to fight off Phillip II’s Spanish Armada). When he was finally able to return 3 years later in 1590, his delay had turned tragic: He waded ashore with a landing party on August 18th and discovered footprints...and silence. As White approached the colony site, he encountered an unfamiliar barrier - a stockade - and within it all of the buildings were gone, wiped from the Earth. No charred remains, no debris, just the word “CROATOAN” carved upon one of the posts of a recently-erected palisade. This was prearranged code for evacuation of the colony with its destination carved into a tree or post. The colony had seemingly just vanished. 90 men, 17 women and 9 children and their belongings were all missing, to state nothing of the buildings comprised of the fort itself or, for that matter, human remains. Among the them was not only his daughter Eleanor and son-in-law Ananias Dare, but his granddaughter Virginia Dare (the first English child born in the Americas, for whom the local county is now named, i.e. Dare County, and the state of Virginia). There was no trace of the settlers save for the palisade and earthen rampart of the fort. Upon search of the island nothing was found, save for the letters “C R O” carved into a tree near the beach. Both carvings lacked a cross indicating an emergency evacuation.

White presumed “Croatoan” indicated a known island to the south and desperately wanted to make the short 50 mile journey to Croatoan Island but, upon return to his ship the following day, a terrible storm blew his ship far out to sea, compelling his retreat to England. White pleaded with news of the mystery and his missing family to finance a search expedition, but he was unable to secure support and never returned to search Croatoan Island for his family. No future expedition ever found any evidence of the colonists’ fate. In short: It was a mystery which endures to this day.

The legend of the “Lost Colony of Roanoke” was born.

Speculation has been rife, with no hard evidence for any of the following possible explanations:
• A disease, flood, or fire may have destroyed the colony.
• The colonists were attacked and/or killed by hostile Indians.
• The colonists were attacked by the Spanish and killed or kidnapped.
• The colonists ran out of supplies, experienced failed crops and drought, and went to live with the Croatan Band of Indians.
• The entire colony moved southward to another island or inland.

The argument against all of those theories is that no physical site has ever been found to support the notion that the colony ever relocated and no physical evidence - graves or otherwise - was ever found to support the notion that the colonists lived and died among the friendly Indians.

However, some of the colony’s settlers were from Wales and a hundred years after the colony was lost, new English settlers found that some Croatan People on Croatoan Island could speak Welsh and read books. Some evidence was also unearthed by archaeologists on Hatteras which places Europeans on the island at the time of the missing colony. This is much more than anecdotal evidence of the colony’s relocation and the notion is still largely up for debate among academics. But why did they seemingly disappear in the first place?

While listening to the news on 9/4/2019 about the declining strength of Hurricane Dorian and the threat of storm surge, rain & consequent flooding it posed to the Carolinas, Roanoke Island popped into my head and, frankly, I was momentarily taken aback, not realizing the significance. But it took only moments to realize what had happened: I may have solved the riddle of why the colony evacuated the island settlement.

In contrast to historical citations of “under-supply” and “discouragement” as reasons for his decision, it is interesting to note from Ralph Lane’s own writings the details of another, earlier storm and which seemed to serve as a catalyst to prompt abandonment of the settlement rather than merely returning “a number of weak and unfit men” he first-prescribed upon Drake’s landing:

• “While these things were in hand, the provision aforesaid being brought, and in bringing aboard, my said masters being also gone aboard, my said barks having accepted of their charge, and my own officers, with others in like sort of my company with them (all which was dispatched by the said general the 12 of the said month) the 13 of the same there arose such an unwonted storm, and continued four days...
• This storm having continued from the 13 to the 16 of the month, and thus my bark put away as aforesaid, the general coming ashore made a new proffer unto me; which was a ship of 170 tons, called the bark Bonner, with a sufficient master and guide to tarry with me the time appointed, and victualed sufficiently to carry me and my company into England, with all provisions as before...”

Lane is describing a storm which blew in on the 13th of June, 1586 and lasted 4 days. Coincidentally, we know know the month of June to be the opening of the Atlantic hurricane season. Thus it becomes clear upon closer scrutiny that Lane was likely describing a hurricane, whose devastating impact - which also dispersed Drake’s fleet - prompted the decision to abandon the settlement wholesale.

Furthermore, it also becomes clear that Roanoke Island was abandoned not just once, but twice, perhaps for the same reason: Brutal Atlantic hurricanes.

Interestingly, “CROATOAN” was the name of an island to the south, which was home to the Croatoan/Croatan people (spelling is subjective and unresolved), a tribe which had no hostility to the non-native Europeans. In fact, Croatoan Island is now known as Hatteras Island. It’s about 50 miles as the crow flies from Roanoke Island to Cape Fear, or about a day or two’s sailing even in small boats.

I don’t purport to have solved any riddle, but the real mystery to me is how any discussion of why the colonists left the island has evaded all debate. Clearly there are only a handful of possibilities for lack of any gravesites which would be evidence of disease or starvation.
In light of the fact that they had time to carve 2 messages and the incomplete tree message was located at the beach, it seems apparent that they were faced not with an enemy assault, but with a worsening storm and many may have perished, believing that they could escape the fury of what is now known as a hurricane. Such a hypothesis explains both the condition of the settlement itself from storm surge as well as the lack of gravesites...the bodies and belongings being all washed to sea. It also explains the lack of artifacts among the Croatan people, assuming that was truly where they landed after the storm broke.

Major hurricanes have hit the Carolinas in modern times; they certainly occurred in the 16th century as well. Roanoke Island is barrier island, barely exceeding 4 meters above sea level in some places. The Roanoke Island Inn - built in 1860 - stands at only 8 feet above sea level. Ft. Raleigh is estimated to be at an elevation of just 12 feet, but fully-exposed on the northeastern coast. Here are some hurricanes which have made landfall at the Carolinas:
• Hurricane Floyd of 1999 hit the Carolinas with 9-10 feet of storm surge and dumped over 10” of rain.
• Hurricane Irene of 2011 was a less-powerful storm but hit the Carolinas with up to 5 feet of storm surge and produced extensive flooding of Roanoke Island’s city of Manteo 4 feet deep.
• Hurricane Joaquin of 2015 produced storm surges of 12 to 15 ft at peak strength.

Wind driven storm tides on top of storm surges would have washed over most of Roanoke Island, the only safe place for colonists being the trees. Waves would have washed away most of the settlement and their belongings. The condition of the site when discovered abandoned by John White is evidence of a major hurricane’s wrath. Those who survived the storm likely erected the stockade as temporary protection behind what remained of the earthen ramparts, the only remnants of the settlement found later by John White. Eventually the remaining population would have abandoned the decimated fort, salt water rendering the soil useless for the Spring crops and lack of food bringing them to the point of starvation.

Travelling to Croatoan Island would have been a last act of desperation with hostile Indians onshore in Virginia.

As for the survivors themselves, it is also clear from what is growing archaeological evidence that the they joined the friendly native communities (i.e. Croatan) and interbred. At some point in the near future it is certain that there will be more evidence to support that popular theory among researchers beyond the anecdotal.

In the meantime, I believe it’s clear that the reason they became the Lost Colony of Roanoke was due to a major Atlantic hurricane which decimated the settlement and likely killed most of the colonists. It therefore becomes logical to find little-to-no physical evidence of the survivors, including archaeological evidence found at dig sites in Hatteras and the legendary Dare Stones.

Footnote:
I don’t currently find any hard scientific evidence for or against the so-called Dare Stones. Dismissing the stones shown to be a hoax, I believe there is much to learn of the primary 2 stones. Part of Brenau University’s history since the late 1930s, the first carved stone was found by a man in 1937 driving through the Carolinas near Edenton at the height of the Great Depression. The title image displays the 1st stone in true color (as opposed to internet images with heightened contrast - possibly highlighted with flour - which make the carved letters appear freshly-white and ‘fake’). Below are the inscriptions:

[Side 1]:
Ananias Dare &
Virginia Went Hence
Unto Heaven 1591
Anye Englishman Shew
John White Govr Via

[Side 2]:
Father Soone After You
Goe for England Wee Cam
Hither / Onlie Misarie & Warre
Tow Yeere / Above Halfe Deade ere Tow
Yeere More From Sickenes Beine Foure & Twentie /
Salvage with Message of Shipp Unto Us / Smal
Space of Time they Affrite of Revenge Rann
Al Awaye / Wee Bleeve it Nott You / Soone After
Ye Salvages Faine Spirits Angrie / Suddaine
Murther Al Save Seaven / Mine Childe /
Ananais to Slaine wth Much Misarie /
Burie Al Neere Foure Myles Easte This River
Uppon Small Hil / Names Writ Al Ther
On Rocke / Putt This Ther Alsoe / Salvage
Shew This Unto You & Hither Wee
Promise You to Give Greate
Plentie Presents
EWD

The 2nd Dare Stone was found by Chowan County farmer H.l. Chappell in 1938 and is inscribed with the names of 17 dead, including Ananias & Virginia Dare.

Perhaps this is the only remaining evidence of 17 survivors of a horrible storm which all but wiped out the Colony of Roanoke.

I will not debate the plethora of stones which later surfaced and are all alleged to be forgeries.

Further study of the Dare Stone (and a 2nd which is cited in the reverse side’s inscription; see bold text) may shed more light upon the family of John White, who died not knowing their fate. Those interested in the tale of the Lost Colony of Roanoke Island should follow the scientific studies of those stones, the ongoing archaeological digs and DNA studies of the region’s inhabitants.

This is an interesting analysis of the Dare Stones and another stone purported to be a map. Barring extensive study, I take both with heavy doses of salt. I only include the citation due to the abundance of information - however speculative on the mystery of the colonists’ fate - but I still assert that most of the original 1587 colony was washed away by a hurricane and the survivors traveled south to live with the Croatan tribe as a matter of survival.