Posted on 08/29/2023 5:23:03 AM PDT by GeorgiaDawg32
Hurricanes loose intensity over land. I would head NNW in the direction of Valdosta AL. But check the triffic
And I would leave ASAP and not wait.
I see you have now been told to go in every direction... hurricanes are tough!
This is the best advise. You simply cannot stay near cedar key in a fifth wheel. You’ll be on the surge side if you stay. Go away.
For information on the westward shift, it is found in the section called Forecast Discussion.
For Forecast Discussion 11, it’s in paragraph 2, where it talks about the changes in the forecast tract.
There has been a westward shift in the model guidance
overnight, perhaps due to the trough tugging Idalia more
northward before taking a north-northeast turn. It should be
noted that the ECMWF ensemble shows many of its strongest members
on the eastern side of its guidance envelope, which is a
reasonable place to be given the synoptic pattern. The new NHC
forecast is adjusted a little to the west but is now east of the
model consensus on the eastern side of the reliable model guidance.
Maybe too much advice, bit I have done a lot of traveling in highways, and one thing I noticed is if traffic is bad, to check the side roads for traffic because there are times when the parallel roads are fairly empty.
Maybe too much advice, bit I have done a lot of traveling in highways, and one thing I noticed is if traffic is bad, to check the side roads for traffic because there are times when the parallel roads are fairly empty.
I would vote for going south and east. That seems to be the easiest and safest path, always traveling away from the hurricane’s track.
The Public Advisory has information on the radius of the hurricane and the tropical force winds.
That gives you a rough diameter around the track that you can possibly have winds of this force or highter (as the winds get more intense the closer you get to the core).
Currently, this is in the section DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK, where it says
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).
The diameter is actually asymetric, so this is okay for a rough guess.
The Storm Surge section gives you the potential area and surge you might expect.
. Right now north-northwest would be my play. But you never know for sure with hurricanes.
“I see you have now been told to go in every direction... hurricanes are tough!”
OUR WORK HERE IS DONE, LOL
Nothing is learned in school in Duval County to be fair…
I’m going to go buy 19 jars of peanut butter now, in case the Philly area gets hit as well…
To see the change in the track over the past forecast...
Go to https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Click Warnings/Cone Static Images
In the bar under HURRICANE IDALIA, click Archive
Click Graphics Archive
Then click, for instance, Cone->5-day with line
to see changes over the past forecast
HA! We just flex sealed the entire roof of our 38 ft RV. 😉
I would get up to I-10 now. You will have that three hours out of the way and can go west or east based upon the track alerts. Just keep in mind that if it is wind you are concerned about you want to be 90 miles minimum off the centerline.
Advice from someone who’s been there:
1. Choose a direction. Going West will get you to the weaker side of the storm. Going SE will get you beyond the storm... but you will have to cross a lot of storm prep areas (like Tampa). Most people tend to go North... and that means fewer places to stop as they take up the lodging or camping resources. Just choose one and go with it.
2. Go quickly. The longer you wait, the more you will wait in traffic with those who also waited. Get to your destination and rest easy rather than sitting on the highway in the storm.
The worst part is everyone leaving at once
Yes, if you ain’t left yet, you ain’t gonna leave now...................
Valdosta AL?....
Is that anywhere near Dothan GA?>...........................
I’ve read that flexseal doesn’t hold up to the sun over time. Might want to search for some UV protection clear coat.
I’m going to go buy 19 jars of peanut butter now,
in case the Philly area gets hit as well…
************
Get some crackers/bread to go with it.
Heck stale bread could be toasted if you
have some butane or wood stove.
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