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Transcript
0:00 · some actions have an end but no
0:03 · beginning some begin but do not end it
0:06 · all depends upon where the Observer is
0:08 · standing on May 27th tensions on The
0:12 · Afghan Iranian border boiled over near
0:15 · the city of zaran two people were killed
0:18 · two more were injured but while both
0:20 · sides quickly de-escalated the situation
0:23 · the incident highlights a deeply
0:25 · entrenched border dispute one that
0:27 · predates both governments yet this is no
0:31 · conflict over territory instead the tap
0:34 · rout of Afghan Iranian tensions is and
0:37 · always has been water rights since the
0:40 · 1870s water access in the syan Basin has
0:44 · formed a geopolitical friction point the
0:47 · Locust is the Helman river which runs
0:49 · through Afghanistan before terminating
0:51 · in eastern Iran the past few decades
0:54 · have seen rainfall drop precipitously
0:57 · the hamon Lakes once a civilization
1:00 · cradle are bone dry and now climate
1:03 · change threatens to convert the region
1:05 · into a permanent Dust Bowl the crisis is
1:08 · a force multiplier for a host of
1:10 · political sore points border security
1:12 · issues Refugee flows islamist militancy
1:16 · and illicit Goods trafficking all add to
1:18 · a lingering sense of unease mistrust and
1:21 · anxiety it remains to be seen whether
1:23 · these differences can be resolved by
1:26 · diplomatic means or otherwise Nations
1:29 · have gone to War for less one thing we
1:32 · do know water is more than just a bunch
1:34 · of atoms it possesses the power to shape
1:37 · both geography and
1:53 · politics the Iranian Afghan conflict
1:55 · seems far away but its Ripple effects
1:58 · are global American household debt
2:00 · levels are already reaching all-time
2:03 · highs and uncertainty over interest
2:06 · rates threatens to sink the Investments
2:08 · the upper middle class worked years to
2:11 · build for centuries High net worth
2:14 · investors survived instability with Safe
2:16 · Haven assets and now you're just a few
2:19 · clicks away from unprecedented access to
2:22 · the most exclusive of all museum grade
2:24 · Fine Art Masterworks the sponsor of this
2:28 · video has created a one of- aind
2:30 · database of art auctions from the last
2:33 · 50 years and they've used it to purchase
2:35 · Blue Chip art they believe will
2:38 · appreciate in value they handle all the
2:40 · leg work authentication acquisition and
2:44 · storage then they qualify the offerings
2:47 · with the SEC allowing you to invest in
2:49 · works from names like Picasso Banky and
2:53 · basat their 15 sales to date have all
2:56 · returned profits to their investors
2:58 · including net returns of 177% 35% and
3:02 · even
3:03 · 77% offerings have sold out within
3:06 · minutes so there is a wait list but
3:09 · Caspian report subscribers can skip the
3:11 · line and get started today by using the
3:14 · link in the description see important
3:17 · disclosures at
3:20 · [Music]
3:28 · masterworks.io by sparse rainfall and
3:31 · glacial melt managing these scarce
3:34 · resources is a matter of vital
3:36 · importance for Afghanistan but since
3:38 · three of the country's five major rivers
3:40 · cross into neighboring states Afghan
3:43 · water policy is inherently
3:46 · geopolitical of all the regional Rivers
3:49 · the most important is the helmund which
3:52 · runs through Afghanistan before
3:53 · terminating in the hamon wetlands on the
3:56 · Iranian border for the past five
3:58 · millennia these marshes have formed a
4:01 · cradle of civilization their importance
4:04 · to Regional agriculture is attested to
4:06 · an ancient literature and the religious
4:09 · texts of
4:10 · Zoroastrianism yet since the mid 19th
4:13 · century a British imposed border has
4:16 · complicated the issue of water rights
4:18 · though 95% of the Helman straddles
4:21 · Afghan territory decisions made Upstream
4:24 · yield grave consequences for the Iranian
4:26 · Hammons and while efforts to codify
4:29 · water rights have been pursued by both
4:31 · States no final deal has ever been
4:34 · reached in other words the dispute has
4:36 · no legal basis the closest thing to a
4:39 · binding agreement is the
4:41 · 1973 helmund water treaty which forms
4:45 · the Bedrock of bilateral water policy
4:48 · under the treaty Iran can draw 22 cubic
4:52 · M of water from the river per second
4:54 · with an option to buy another 4 cubic
4:57 · m/s in years of normal range rainfall
5:00 · this amounts to roughly 820 million
5:03 · cubic M of water per year but since the
5:06 · agreement was never ratified enforcement
5:08 · depended on good faith something in as
5:11 · short supply as the water itself
5:14 · political Discord in both signatory
5:16 · States has not helped either the 1973
5:20 · Afghan coup 1979 Iranian Revolution
5:23 · Soviet Afghan war the us-led Afghan
5:26 · occupation and the rise and subsequent
5:29 · reemergence of the Taliban have only
5:31 · imposed further obstacles as such
5:34 · long-term infrastructure planning has
5:37 · proceeded in fits and starts and today
5:40 · much of Afghanistan's water
5:42 · infrastructure consists of holdover
5:44 · Works mostly completed in the 1950s by
5:48 · American engineering firms these include
5:51 · the 44 M High AR gandab Dam Northeast of
5:55 · kahar and the kajaki dam 115 km Upstream
6:00 · from
6:01 · lashara these dams were intended to
6:03 · improve irrigation control flooding and
6:06 · provide hydroelectricity developing
6:09 · Afghan self-sufficiency in power
6:11 · generation yet they were built without
6:14 · first undertaking proper soil and
6:16 · topography studies and over time this
6:19 · contributed to Downstream salinization
6:22 · and damage to the hamon Lakes ecosystem
6:25 · not to be outdone by the Afghans on poor
6:28 · planning in 1983 the Iranian Fisheries
6:32 · company introduced alien fish species to
6:35 · the Hammon Lakes this caused immense
6:38 · damage as the invasive species devoured
6:40 · the lakes's Reeds undermining the
6:43 · ecosystem's food supply and in the 1990s
6:46 · the first Taliban government exacerbated
6:49 · the problem by choking off the hammon's
6:51 · water supply at the kajaki dam bad
6:54 · decision after bad decision Afghan
6:57 · Iranian relations soured the situation
7:01 · became so tense that in 1998 after a
7:04 · Taliban raid on the Iranian Consulate in
7:08 · Mazar Sharif killed eight Iranian
7:10 · diplomats tahan amassed nearly 200,000
7:14 · troops on the border Iran opted not to
7:18 · invade but the situation demonstrated
7:21 · how quickly disputes concerning water
7:23 · rights could boil over into full-blown
7:26 · conflict thereafter tan continued to
7:29 · support anti-taliban groups including
7:32 · the Northern Alliance which was subsumed
7:35 · into the new government following the
7:36 · American lead invasion in 2001 even so
7:41 · Iran's hard line on the Taliban was
7:43 · never set in stone instead relations
7:46 · between the two sides oscillate
7:49 · depending on whoever controls Kabul at
7:51 · any one time thus the period following
7:54 · the taliban's 2001 outing by the US
7:58 · proved one of reapo encroachment the
8:00 · water dispute continued though this time
8:02 · with the Afghan Republic yet the focus
8:05 · of tensions shifted away from the
8:07 · taliban's treatment of Afghanistan's
8:09 · Shia minority and towards the Afghan
8:12 · Republic's apparent tolerance of the
8:14 · opium trade and its status as an
8:16 · American vessel supposedly when you go
8:19 · out looking for trouble you will find
8:21 · trouble throughout the US occupation
8:24 · Iran was one of the few states that
8:27 · engaged the Taliban efforts that
8:29 · expanded after the emergence of Isis K
8:32 · in 2015 the purely domestic orientation
8:35 · of the Taliban no doubt proved less
8:37 · irksome than the Islamic State's
8:39 · transnational Ambitions which threatened
8:42 · to stoke Sunni uprisings within Iran's
8:45 · borders accordingly Tan's complaints
8:48 · turned towards the new water
8:50 · infrastructures being built within the
8:52 · cyan Basin which it alleged would choke
8:55 · off Iran's water supply this includes
8:57 · the Afghan Turkish built Kamal Khan
9:00 · irrigation Dam completed in early 2021
9:04 · with a capacity of 50 million cubic M of
9:07 · water and after the 2020 Doha agreement
9:10 · signaled an American withdrawal the tan
9:13 · Taliban engagement only deepened further
9:16 · yet few anticipated the speed of the
9:19 · Afghan Republic's collapse which caught
9:22 · even the Iranians off guard this
9:24 · coincided with the height of the coid
9:26 · pandemic and widespread water shortages
9:28 · which prompted Nationwide protests in
9:31 · Iran along with a heavy-handed
9:33 · government response the combination of
9:35 · domestic and Regional instability soon
9:37 · stoked clashes along the border and when
9:40 · in July 2022 Iran's president ibraim RI
9:44 · ordered his cabinet to push Kabul for a
9:47 · greater water share the Taliban
9:49 · responded by Reina dura the second phase
9:52 · of the kajaki dam threatening to impound
9:55 · another 1 billion cubic M of water and
9:58 · place Iran's water security under even
10:01 · greater strain roughly at the same time
10:04 · tensions increased further following a
10:06 · new influx of Afghan refugees this
10:09 · fueled Iran's long-standing concerns
10:12 · regarding separatism in its Southeastern
10:15 · cyan and baluchistan provinces since
10:18 · 2007 tan has banned Afghan refugees from
10:22 · settling there largely due to anxieties
10:25 · concerning the Region's status as a
10:27 · Sunni dominated marginalized and
10:30 · water-deprived Borderland which is an
10:32 · ideal concoction to Kickstart a
10:34 · separatist movement even so there are
10:37 · some matters on which both sides share
10:39 · an interest in cooperating though poppy
10:42 · cultivation soared under the US
10:45 · installed Afghan Republic the Taliban
10:48 · has since largely eradicated the trade
10:51 · following an Amnesty on the 2022 Harvest
10:54 · stringent enforcement of
10:56 · counternarcotics has seen opium
10:58 · production Fall by 4 fths in helmund a
11:02 · Taliban stronghold it is down a
11:04 · staggering
11:06 · 99% many farmers have switched to wheat
11:09 · yet while this has helped alleviate food
11:12 · shortages in a state under heavy
11:14 · sanctions grain production has produced
11:17 · Slimmer profit margins on occasion this
11:20 · has prompted violent clashes between
11:22 · Taliban militants and farmers and as
11:25 · with all forms of prohibition
11:27 · skyrocketing prices are are providing
11:29 · lucrative opportunities for Bootleggers
11:32 · gutsy enough to defy Taliban decrees
11:35 · thus by assisting the Taliban Teran
11:38 · could snuff out trafficking at its
11:40 · source this would help ease the strain
11:42 · on its own counternarcotics efforts
11:44 · which have wilted under the pressure of
11:46 · its porous 930 km Afghan border such
11:51 · programs would only become more relevant
11:53 · as climate change sets in opium is not
11:56 · only more lucrative than conventional
11:59 · agriculture but less water intensive and
12:01 · any letup in enforcement or Taliban
12:04 · influence at the hands of Isis K or
12:07 · others could see Poppy yields return to
12:09 · their pre-eradication levels within a
12:12 · single season but such Taliban Teran
12:16 · cooperation will not be possible without
12:18 · advances in minority rights in eastern
12:22 · Iran there is a significant amount of
12:24 · anti- Afghan sentiment mostly due to
12:27 · refugees border security issues and an
12:30 · opioid crisis largely seen as an Afghan
12:33 · problem meanwhile the Taliban attempts
12:36 · at establishing pashun cultural hegemony
12:38 · have fallen hard on its Persian speaking
12:41 · minorities this includes the suppression
12:43 · of Persian literature and language in
12:46 · favor of poshto mutual concessions on
12:49 · this front will thus be necessary
12:51 · finally the issue of water rights will
12:54 · have to be finalized in a properly
12:56 · ratified treaty whatever else their dis
12:58 · agreements both tan and the Taliban
13:01 · share a professed commitment to the
13:03 · Helmand water treaty though since
13:06 · nothing was ever ratified Afghanistan
13:08 · has the clear upper hand in negotiations
13:11 · recent tensions have not concerned the
13:13 · agreement's legitimacy so much as
13:16 · whether Afghanistan is obliged to feed
13:18 · Iran additional water in times of
13:21 · drought but while a blackl
13:23 · interpretation of the treaty leans
13:25 · towards Afghanistan the Taliban is an
13:28 · unre recognized government something
13:30 · Tran has been at pains to point out
13:34 · nonetheless the Taliban Remains The
13:36 · defao Sovereign Authority in Afghanistan
13:39 · regardless of legal technicalities thus
13:42 · in the long run Iran may be moved to
13:45 · recognize the Taliban possibly on the
13:48 · condition that it provides greater
13:50 · protections to its ethn religious kin
13:52 · within Afghanistan doing so would open
13:55 · up the dispute resolution procedures
13:57 · available on under the helmond river
13:59 · treaty this includes Article 4 and
14:03 · additional protocol 2 which provide
14:05 · detailed procedures for settling
14:07 · disagreements first through diplomatic
14:10 · channels then via third-party
14:12 · arbitration and then through an
14:14 · independent fact-f finding process to be
14:17 · conducted by a tribunal this may prove
14:21 · difficult though as it would need
14:23 · significant buyin from the Taliban it
14:25 · would also require a mediator that could
14:28 · command and the trust of both parties
14:30 · the most likely candidates would be
14:32 · Qatar which brokered the 2020 Doha
14:36 · agreement or China which recently
14:38 · brokered deals between Iran and Saudi
14:41 · Arabia whatever happens settling the
14:44 · dispute is in the mutual interest of
14:46 · both parties shared security issues
14:49 · necessitate it and beyond that neither
14:53 · side can afford new enemies the
14:55 · differences between them are significant
14:57 · in religious cultural and
14:59 · ethnolinguistic terms diplomacy is to do
15:03 · and say the most abhorent things in the
15:06 · nicest way but nowhere is it written
15:09 · that effective diplomacy requires
15:11 · complete consensus it merely requires
15:15 · Toleration I've been your host shiran
15:17 · from Caspian report all of our content
15:20 · is crowdfunded if you want to be part of
15:22 · that Network and gain access to some
15:24 · premium perks like Early Access PDF
15:27 · files Etc consider joining our platform
15:30 · on patreon or the YouTube membership
15:33 · program you'll find the links in the
15:35 · description box in any case thank you
15:38 · for your time and S

Transcript
0:00	·	some actions have an end but no
0:03	·	beginning some begin but do not end it
0:06	·	all depends upon where the Observer is
0:08	·	standing on May 27th tensions on The
0:12	·	Afghan Iranian border boiled over near
0:15	·	the city of zaran two people were killed
0:18	·	two more were injured but while both
0:20	·	sides quickly de-escalated the situation
0:23	·	the incident highlights a deeply
0:25	·	entrenched border dispute one that
0:27	·	predates both governments yet this is no
0:31	·	conflict over territory instead the tap
0:34	·	rout of Afghan Iranian tensions is and
0:37	·	always has been water rights since the
0:40	·	1870s water access in the syan Basin has
0:44	·	formed a geopolitical friction point the
0:47	·	Locust is the Helman river which runs
0:49	·	through Afghanistan before terminating
0:51	·	in eastern Iran the past few decades
0:54	·	have seen rainfall drop precipitously
0:57	·	the hamon Lakes once a civilization
1:00	·	cradle are bone dry and now climate
1:03	·	change threatens to convert the region
1:05	·	into a permanent Dust Bowl the crisis is
1:08	·	a force multiplier for a host of
1:10	·	political sore points border security
1:12	·	issues Refugee flows islamist militancy
1:16	·	and illicit Goods trafficking all add to
1:18	·	a lingering sense of unease mistrust and
1:21	·	anxiety it remains to be seen whether
1:23	·	these differences can be resolved by
1:26	·	diplomatic means or otherwise Nations
1:29	·	have gone to War for less one thing we
1:32	·	do know water is more than just a bunch
1:34	·	of atoms it possesses the power to shape
1:37	·	both geography and
1:53	·	politics the Iranian Afghan conflict
1:55	·	seems far away but its Ripple effects
1:58	·	are global American household debt
2:00	·	levels are already reaching all-time
2:03	·	highs and uncertainty over interest
2:06	·	rates threatens to sink the Investments
2:08	·	the upper middle class worked years to
2:11	·	build for centuries High net worth
2:14	·	investors survived instability with Safe
2:16	·	Haven assets and now you're just a few
2:19	·	clicks away from unprecedented access to
2:22	·	the most exclusive of all museum grade
2:24	·	Fine Art Masterworks the sponsor of this
2:28	·	video has created a one of- aind
2:30	·	database of art auctions from the last
2:33	·	50 years and they've used it to purchase
2:35	·	Blue Chip art they believe will
2:38	·	appreciate in value they handle all the
2:40	·	leg work authentication acquisition and
2:44	·	storage then they qualify the offerings
2:47	·	with the SEC allowing you to invest in
2:49	·	works from names like Picasso Banky and
2:53	·	basat their 15 sales to date have all
2:56	·	returned profits to their investors
2:58	·	including net returns of 177% 35% and
3:02	·	even
3:03	·	77% offerings have sold out within
3:06	·	minutes so there is a wait list but
3:09	·	Caspian report subscribers can skip the
3:11	·	line and get started today by using the
3:14	·	link in the description see important
3:17	·	disclosures at
3:20	·	[Music]
3:28	·	masterworks.io by sparse rainfall and
3:31	·	glacial melt managing these scarce
3:34	·	resources is a matter of vital
3:36	·	importance for Afghanistan but since
3:38	·	three of the country's five major rivers
3:40	·	cross into neighboring states Afghan
3:43	·	water policy is inherently
3:46	·	geopolitical of all the regional Rivers
3:49	·	the most important is the helmund which
3:52	·	runs through Afghanistan before
3:53	·	terminating in the hamon wetlands on the
3:56	·	Iranian border for the past five
3:58	·	millennia these marshes have formed a
4:01	·	cradle of civilization their importance
4:04	·	to Regional agriculture is attested to
4:06	·	an ancient literature and the religious
4:09	·	texts of
4:10	·	Zoroastrianism yet since the mid 19th
4:13	·	century a British imposed border has
4:16	·	complicated the issue of water rights
4:18	·	though 95% of the Helman straddles
4:21	·	Afghan territory decisions made Upstream
4:24	·	yield grave consequences for the Iranian
4:26	·	Hammons and while efforts to codify
4:29	·	water rights have been pursued by both
4:31	·	States no final deal has ever been
4:34	·	reached in other words the dispute has
4:36	·	no legal basis the closest thing to a
4:39	·	binding agreement is the
4:41	·	1973 helmund water treaty which forms
4:45	·	the Bedrock of bilateral water policy
4:48	·	under the treaty Iran can draw 22 cubic
4:52	·	M of water from the river per second
4:54	·	with an option to buy another 4 cubic
4:57	·	m/s in years of normal range rainfall
5:00	·	this amounts to roughly 820 million
5:03	·	cubic M of water per year but since the
5:06	·	agreement was never ratified enforcement
5:08	·	depended on good faith something in as
5:11	·	short supply as the water itself
5:14	·	political Discord in both signatory
5:16	·	States has not helped either the 1973
5:20	·	Afghan coup 1979 Iranian Revolution
5:23	·	Soviet Afghan war the us-led Afghan
5:26	·	occupation and the rise and subsequent
5:29	·	reemergence of the Taliban have only
5:31	·	imposed further obstacles as such
5:34	·	long-term infrastructure planning has
5:37	·	proceeded in fits and starts and today
5:40	·	much of Afghanistan's water
5:42	·	infrastructure consists of holdover
5:44	·	Works mostly completed in the 1950s by
5:48	·	American engineering firms these include
5:51	·	the 44 M High AR gandab Dam Northeast of
5:55	·	kahar and the kajaki dam 115 km Upstream
6:00	·	from
6:01	·	lashara these dams were intended to
6:03	·	improve irrigation control flooding and
6:06	·	provide hydroelectricity developing
6:09	·	Afghan self-sufficiency in power
6:11	·	generation yet they were built without
6:14	·	first undertaking proper soil and
6:16	·	topography studies and over time this
6:19	·	contributed to Downstream salinization
6:22	·	and damage to the hamon Lakes ecosystem
6:25	·	not to be outdone by the Afghans on poor
6:28	·	planning in 1983 the Iranian Fisheries
6:32	·	company introduced alien fish species to
6:35	·	the Hammon Lakes this caused immense
6:38	·	damage as the invasive species devoured
6:40	·	the lakes's Reeds undermining the
6:43	·	ecosystem's food supply and in the 1990s
6:46	·	the first Taliban government exacerbated
6:49	·	the problem by choking off the hammon's
6:51	·	water supply at the kajaki dam bad
6:54	·	decision after bad decision Afghan
6:57	·	Iranian relations soured the situation
7:01	·	became so tense that in 1998 after a
7:04	·	Taliban raid on the Iranian Consulate in
7:08	·	Mazar Sharif killed eight Iranian
7:10	·	diplomats tahan amassed nearly 200,000
7:14	·	troops on the border Iran opted not to
7:18	·	invade but the situation demonstrated
7:21	·	how quickly disputes concerning water
7:23	·	rights could boil over into full-blown
7:26	·	conflict thereafter tan continued to
7:29	·	support anti-taliban groups including
7:32	·	the Northern Alliance which was subsumed
7:35	·	into the new government following the
7:36	·	American lead invasion in 2001 even so
7:41	·	Iran's hard line on the Taliban was
7:43	·	never set in stone instead relations
7:46	·	between the two sides oscillate
7:49	·	depending on whoever controls Kabul at
7:51	·	any one time thus the period following
7:54	·	the taliban's 2001 outing by the US
7:58	·	proved one of reapo encroachment the
8:00	·	water dispute continued though this time
8:02	·	with the Afghan Republic yet the focus
8:05	·	of tensions shifted away from the
8:07	·	taliban's treatment of Afghanistan's
8:09	·	Shia minority and towards the Afghan
8:12	·	Republic's apparent tolerance of the
8:14	·	opium trade and its status as an
8:16	·	American vessel supposedly when you go
8:19	·	out looking for trouble you will find
8:21	·	trouble throughout the US occupation
8:24	·	Iran was one of the few states that
8:27	·	engaged the Taliban efforts that
8:29	·	expanded after the emergence of Isis K
8:32	·	in 2015 the purely domestic orientation
8:35	·	of the Taliban no doubt proved less
8:37	·	irksome than the Islamic State's
8:39	·	transnational Ambitions which threatened
8:42	·	to stoke Sunni uprisings within Iran's
8:45	·	borders accordingly Tan's complaints
8:48	·	turned towards the new water
8:50	·	infrastructures being built within the
8:52	·	cyan Basin which it alleged would choke
8:55	·	off Iran's water supply this includes
8:57	·	the Afghan Turkish built Kamal Khan
9:00	·	irrigation Dam completed in early 2021
9:04	·	with a capacity of 50 million cubic M of
9:07	·	water and after the 2020 Doha agreement
9:10	·	signaled an American withdrawal the tan
9:13	·	Taliban engagement only deepened further
9:16	·	yet few anticipated the speed of the
9:19	·	Afghan Republic's collapse which caught
9:22	·	even the Iranians off guard this
9:24	·	coincided with the height of the coid
9:26	·	pandemic and widespread water shortages
9:28	·	which prompted Nationwide protests in
9:31	·	Iran along with a heavy-handed
9:33	·	government response the combination of
9:35	·	domestic and Regional instability soon
9:37	·	stoked clashes along the border and when
9:40	·	in July 2022 Iran's president ibraim RI
9:44	·	ordered his cabinet to push Kabul for a
9:47	·	greater water share the Taliban
9:49	·	responded by Reina dura the second phase
9:52	·	of the kajaki dam threatening to impound
9:55	·	another 1 billion cubic M of water and
9:58	·	place Iran's water security under even
10:01	·	greater strain roughly at the same time
10:04	·	tensions increased further following a
10:06	·	new influx of Afghan refugees this
10:09	·	fueled Iran's long-standing concerns
10:12	·	regarding separatism in its Southeastern
10:15	·	cyan and baluchistan provinces since
10:18	·	2007 tan has banned Afghan refugees from
10:22	·	settling there largely due to anxieties
10:25	·	concerning the Region's status as a
10:27	·	Sunni dominated marginalized and
10:30	·	water-deprived Borderland which is an
10:32	·	ideal concoction to Kickstart a
10:34	·	separatist movement even so there are
10:37	·	some matters on which both sides share
10:39	·	an interest in cooperating though poppy
10:42	·	cultivation soared under the US
10:45	·	installed Afghan Republic the Taliban
10:48	·	has since largely eradicated the trade
10:51	·	following an Amnesty on the 2022 Harvest
10:54	·	stringent enforcement of
10:56	·	counternarcotics has seen opium
10:58	·	production Fall by 4 fths in helmund a
11:02	·	Taliban stronghold it is down a
11:04	·	staggering
11:06	·	99% many farmers have switched to wheat
11:09	·	yet while this has helped alleviate food
11:12	·	shortages in a state under heavy
11:14	·	sanctions grain production has produced
11:17	·	Slimmer profit margins on occasion this
11:20	·	has prompted violent clashes between
11:22	·	Taliban militants and farmers and as
11:25	·	with all forms of prohibition
11:27	·	skyrocketing prices are are providing
11:29	·	lucrative opportunities for Bootleggers
11:32	·	gutsy enough to defy Taliban decrees
11:35	·	thus by assisting the Taliban Teran
11:38	·	could snuff out trafficking at its
11:40	·	source this would help ease the strain
11:42	·	on its own counternarcotics efforts
11:44	·	which have wilted under the pressure of
11:46	·	its porous 930 km Afghan border such
11:51	·	programs would only become more relevant
11:53	·	as climate change sets in opium is not
11:56	·	only more lucrative than conventional
11:59	·	agriculture but less water intensive and
12:01	·	any letup in enforcement or Taliban
12:04	·	influence at the hands of Isis K or
12:07	·	others could see Poppy yields return to
12:09	·	their pre-eradication levels within a
12:12	·	single season but such Taliban Teran
12:16	·	cooperation will not be possible without
12:18	·	advances in minority rights in eastern
12:22	·	Iran there is a significant amount of
12:24	·	anti- Afghan sentiment mostly due to
12:27	·	refugees border security issues and an
12:30	·	opioid crisis largely seen as an Afghan
12:33	·	problem meanwhile the Taliban attempts
12:36	·	at establishing pashun cultural hegemony
12:38	·	have fallen hard on its Persian speaking
12:41	·	minorities this includes the suppression
12:43	·	of Persian literature and language in
12:46	·	favor of poshto mutual concessions on
12:49	·	this front will thus be necessary
12:51	·	finally the issue of water rights will
12:54	·	have to be finalized in a properly
12:56	·	ratified treaty whatever else their dis
12:58	·	agreements both tan and the Taliban
13:01	·	share a professed commitment to the
13:03	·	Helmand water treaty though since
13:06	·	nothing was ever ratified Afghanistan
13:08	·	has the clear upper hand in negotiations
13:11	·	recent tensions have not concerned the
13:13	·	agreement's legitimacy so much as
13:16	·	whether Afghanistan is obliged to feed
13:18	·	Iran additional water in times of
13:21	·	drought but while a blackl
13:23	·	interpretation of the treaty leans
13:25	·	towards Afghanistan the Taliban is an
13:28	·	unre recognized government something
13:30	·	Tran has been at pains to point out
13:34	·	nonetheless the Taliban Remains The
13:36	·	defao Sovereign Authority in Afghanistan
13:39	·	regardless of legal technicalities thus
13:42	·	in the long run Iran may be moved to
13:45	·	recognize the Taliban possibly on the
13:48	·	condition that it provides greater
13:50	·	protections to its ethn religious kin
13:52	·	within Afghanistan doing so would open
13:55	·	up the dispute resolution procedures
13:57	·	available on under the helmond river
13:59	·	treaty this includes Article 4 and
14:03	·	additional protocol 2 which provide
14:05	·	detailed procedures for settling
14:07	·	disagreements first through diplomatic
14:10	·	channels then via third-party
14:12	·	arbitration and then through an
14:14	·	independent fact-f finding process to be
14:17	·	conducted by a tribunal this may prove
14:21	·	difficult though as it would need
14:23	·	significant buyin from the Taliban it
14:25	·	would also require a mediator that could
14:28	·	command and the trust of both parties
14:30	·	the most likely candidates would be
14:32	·	Qatar which brokered the 2020 Doha
14:36	·	agreement or China which recently
14:38	·	brokered deals between Iran and Saudi
14:41	·	Arabia whatever happens settling the
14:44	·	dispute is in the mutual interest of
14:46	·	both parties shared security issues
14:49	·	necessitate it and beyond that neither
14:53	·	side can afford new enemies the
14:55	·	differences between them are significant
14:57	·	in religious cultural and
14:59	·	ethnolinguistic terms diplomacy is to do
15:03	·	and say the most abhorent things in the
15:06	·	nicest way but nowhere is it written
15:09	·	that effective diplomacy requires
15:11	·	complete consensus it merely requires
15:15	·	Toleration I've been your host shiran
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15:35	·	description box in any case thank you
15:38	·	for your time and S