It’s probably an oversimplification to say that the big supposedly Republican counties across the river from Cincinnati were what cost Bevin in 2019. Those counties are nominally Republican, but hardly conservative and are dominated by squishes, soccer mommies, etc.
Anyway, that trend looks (for now) to unfortunately be holding up in 2023. If Cameron can improve upon Bevin’s showing elsewhere in the state then he has a chance; if he can’t do that then he’s toast.
Sadly, even as I type this, there are more than enough people who would vote Republican that could get up now and make it a polling location to get in line before they close to make this a massive landslide who simply choose not to show up because they don’t consider off year elections to be important.