Yes all true but as noted the shares are locked up, and the price is somewhat volatile and without liquidity or history (beta) to formulate risk calculations. He may have to figure out a way to put an option collar on them (sell calls and buy puts, or at least buy puts) to protect from downside. But with the lockup I’m not sure if he can even do that. And I’m not sure an option market even exists so he’s almost guaranteed to pay a far premium on that in the OTC markets. But if the stock goes up a bit he can get it back.
Meanwhile he needs to go to federal court and try to get a stay. There is precedent on 8th and 14th amendment grounds. If they take and sell his property he will suffer irreparable harm. If he loses after all appeals are exhausted, the state loses nothing but if NY takes his property and loses on appeal there is no remedy to return his property to him. So the courts should grant him a stay. NY may not, but the federal court should. They have several recent cases against government takings and they were all based on 8th and 14th amendment issues - with the court clearly saying these protections are built in specifically to prevent political persecution. Preaching to the choir here but clearly this case is evidently vindictively politically motivated.
Yes, I think Trump will be successful on appeal, The appeal is a given. But to get there, the immediate problem is he either has to post the $450 million judgement in cash with the court which he does not currently have or post a bond. The only immediate issue for him right now is getting the bond issued. Insurers would not take all illiquid real estate as collateral. They wanted some liquidity in the mix..This will introduce some liquidity, albeit with the 6 month proviso. Having spent a career on Wall Street as a new issues syndicate manager, I know from experience, it is exceptionally rare for an IPO to lose 80% of its value in 6 months even in a bad general market. If the SPAC that serves as the shell holding the shares waives the 6 month holding requirement which they may do next week, then the 6 months is not an issue, although he does not want to take a bath dumping a large number of shares overnight. He will have to sell off pieces over weeks or do a private transaction with an institution or wealthy investor.