Posted on 04/09/2024 5:02:07 AM PDT by hardspunned
If the West is serious about the possibility of a great power conflict, it needs to take a hard look at its capacity to wage a protracted war and to pursue a strategy focused on attrition rather than manoeuvre.
Attritional wars require their own ‘Art of War’ and are fought with a ‘force-centric’ approach, unlike wars of manoeuvre which are ‘terrain-focused’. They are rooted in massive industrial capacity to enable the replacement of losses, geographical depth to absorb a series of defeats, and technological conditions that prevent rapid ground movement. In attritional wars, military operations are shaped by a state’s ability to replace losses and generate new formations, not tactical and operational manoeuvres. The side that accepts the attritional nature of war and focuses on destroying enemy forces rather than gaining terrain is most likely to win.
(Excerpt) Read more at rusi.org ...
While the Zeepers here and in DC were crowing that the Ukes had the Russians on the run, this is what they were doing. The Uke counteroffensive was more of the same winner take all gambit. NATO marshaled everything it had for the one big push, victory and on to Russia. The thought of what happens next if the counteroffensive failed never crossed their minds.
Now that Russians are in such a strong position, vis a vis the West, in this war of attrition, they will accomplish their goals of incorporating all ethnic Russians areas of Ukraine into Russia and ensuring NATO will not threaten them from Ukraine. Once those tasks are accomplished the Russians will once again fall into their impregnable defensive lines and wait for the West to make its same mistake again.
The hilarious thing is the The Russia was telling the West EXACTLY what it was doing [Sergei Shoigu] - and buffoons like Ben “Henny Bodges” Hodges completely ignored the info.
The hilarious thing is that The Russia was telling the West EXACTLY what it was doing [Sergei Shoigu] - and buffoons like Ben “Henny Bodges” Hodges completely ignored the info.
Yes, Russia won WWII ( or the great patriotic war if Russian) but at a great price. It was a close thing.
It is obvious the Russians did not believe the Ukrainians would survive the first "quick poke". The current war is because of bad intelligence by the Russians and a weak US President, Joe Biden.
If Russia "wins" it will also have lost because of lost manpower and industrial capacity.
China is the real winner in the Ukrainian war. Watch for China to encroach on disputed lands in Siberia.
Wars of attrition are terrible things for both sides. No one wants to be in a war of attrition because the losses for everyone are horrible.
We spent 20 - 30 years in the Middle East, fighting Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, etc. Not terribly serious stuff. Lots of terrorists with the occasional armored assault. But we have now “pivoted” away from that.
The DOD now speaks in terms of Great Power conflict. That's either Russia or China. We think we might have to fight them.
I would state with great confidence that the US cannot win any attritional war. We would refuse to lose the men, and we have not the capability to replace the equipment. If it's a war of attrition, we would just lose.
A quick war? A blitzkrieg? A big knockout blow from Gen Schwarzkopf? No. You are not going to take out either Russia or China through some glorious 10-week assault to their capitol.
Our only real hope is a massive nuclear war. As far as I can see, that's really the only thing the Pentagon really has on the table. Either that or chest puffing and posturing for lots of Defense dollars with no intention of fighting a real war.
But if there is a war, and if we think we're going to win, then we would go nuclear. I think that's dumb. But I do not think the US is capable of winning a war in any other fashion.
Not to mention a-holes like Mark Milley mocking Russia for not “taking Kiev in 3 days” which was a concept totally planted in the media propo by his ilk. We still see this claimed by them as a Ukrainian victory in the “Battle of Kiev “
Well, they just announced another two year delay on icbm modernization, so I think even possible nuclear war victory is off the table.
https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2024/03/sentinel-flight-test-delayed-more-two-years/395313/
” If Russia “wins” it will also have lost because of lost manpower and industrial capacity. “
Russia available troops and weapons capacity is substantially above what it was in Feb 2022. That’s just a fact.
Just as USSR capacity was substantially above July 1941 levels at the end of the war - despite the losses.
The article is quite intellectual but too long.
Russia and China are huge countries with huge ground armies. Neither of those two have 800 bases spread around the world. Neither of those two spend trillions projecting military might around the globe. This year Russia will spend $70 billion on military and they are in great shape to defeat anything NATO (spending $1.3Trillion) can throw at them. In the era that gunboat diplomacy became obsolete, it will take the relative easy sinking of a U.S. carrier or two before the idiots in the Pentagon notice.
When the Soviet Union collapsed Russia paid a tremendous price for the mistakes made by the communists. The 90s were hellish for them. Fortunately for them Putin came along. Putin has built a modern Russia that is stronger today economically, militarily and socially than we are. Russia is also much more democratic than the U.S. is.
I fear it will take the similar total collapse that is coming to America before we can begin to build back what we once had.
Most people in the West just can’t get past the disinfo. Look at the FR Zeepers. Generally, they are relatively very intelligent Westerners or they wouldn’t be here. They can’t process a complete full court media press. Most were probably taken in by the scamdemic media blitz as well.
—>> Not to mention a-holes like Mark Milley mocking Russia for not “taking Kiev in 3 days”
We can only wonder what his Zeeper screen name is…
“””””Neither of those two have 800 bases spread around the world.”””””
Neither do we, the lefty source has 54 of those “bases’ on Guam, 34 on Puerto Rico, 120 of them are in Japan, 119 are in Germany, South Korea has 73 of them, Italy 44.
Do you really believe that Guam has 54 American military bases on it?
American arms procurement is a scam and a joke.
American arms procurement is nothing about protecting our troops or winning wars. It’s all about huge profit margins and huge maintenance outlays over the life of a system.
> If the West is serious about the possibility of a great power conflict,
That’s the problem. The West isn’t. If it was serious, it wouldn’t be focused on filling the ranks of its armed forces with fruits, nuts, and flakes.
Why do you think the Black Sea Fleet has shrunk dramatically, and is no longer effective in the Black Sea?
Why does Russia only have 1/2 of the number of AWACS type planes that it used to have?
Why do Ukrainian FPV pilots keep hunting down Russian armor and trucks?
Why hasn't Russia, in their latest offensive, been able to capture as much land as Ukraine liberated in their counteroffensive last summer?
Why do you think that the description of the Ukrainian counter offensive you read in the main stream western media was even remotely close to the actual plans?
Why do you think the Russians are attacking in maximum assault units of 8 or 10 pieces of armor all along the front line? They keep pressure on the entirety of the Uke force and gain ground every day in small but constant multiple actions? It’s called aggressive attrition and is working perfectly for them. When the Uke military begins to buckle, it will collapse all along the line. When that happens you will see larger Russian commitments as the Uke retaliation completely disappears.
The Uke air defense began collapsing due to attrition early this year. Prior to that, there were no FAB strikes as the Russian fighters bombers were kept at bay. After the the first cracks appeared in Uke AD, the floodgate for FABs opened. The Uke AD became the prime target and is now practically destroyed. FABs are now launched with impunity.
Yes, the Russians lost some AWACS and fighter bombers during that initial phase this year of destroying Uke AD. Notice how the Kiev liars haven’t announced any Russian planes being shot down in a couple months? Yep, aggressive attrition took the Patriots and the rest of their AD out. The Russian the aren’t idiots, any surface ship in the world is nothing but a target today. The USN acknowledges that by being completely helpless against the Houthis. The Iranians will own the USN if the Israelis are successful and we get dragged into a real war with Tehran.
Why did the Pentagon idiots gather everything NATO could supply and destroy it ALL on their ridiculous counteroffensive CF catastrophe? Those fools are fighting Kursk and The Bulge under 2024 conditions. The Russians never bunch up targets that no military on earth could defend from modern surveillance, targeting and destruction (assuming your idiot leaders hadn’t wasted your weaponry on their WWII counteroffensive). All the while, the Russian military industrial complex replaces losses and grows their force at a rapid pace. They are much stronger today than 1/1/22. The Russian manpower was not wasted on stupid Hitlerian stand and defend territory for territory’s sake either. The Russians withdrew when necessary and dug in until conditions changed. They lived then to fight today and tomorrow. The Ukes stand and Syrsky butchers them.
The Russians have learned and are the masters the modern battlefield. The rainbow warriors at the Pentagon have their most advanced thinkers worrying about when the Russians will begin deploying their IEDs. Then we’ll show them we know what we’re doing.
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