[JohnnyZ]

I think there's a slight Democrat registration advantage. Bush may have won the district (must have, or they'da mentioned it), but only by a small margin if he did.

[AuH2ORepublican]

In 2000, Bush carried the 1st CD over Gore by 50% to 45%. I think Bush will get around 55% in 2004, since the Republican suburbs grow faster than the RAT areas and since national security will be a big issue on election day (as opposed to the post-Cold-War 1992-2001 period).