As usual, the Cajun vote in southern Louisiana west of New Orleans will decide the outcome. Chances are, they will stick with Bush. They are largely responsible for Bush's victory over Gore.
The third Congressional district is more complicated than is mentioned. Republicans have two first-tier candidates running. Billy Tauzin III has national fundraising support, but has no electoral record of his own. A number of local Republicans support state Senator Craig Romero, a former Iberia Parish President (equivilent to county executive). Meanwhile, the 'Rats have a strong candidate in Charles Melconcan, scion of a sugar-producing empire.
Republicans have also fielded a candidate to take on first termer Rodney Alexander in LA-05, an Alexandria Republican named Jock Scott. I hear the national Republicans are taking this race seriously and will pump in money so Scott is competitive.
I'd like to see some progress in LA-07, Chris John's open seat. David Thibodaux is polling behind two Democrats for third place, but the Republican who is securing the major endorsements and who has the most cash of all the candidates, Charles Boustany, is stuck at 7%, way behind everyone else.
As far as the senate race goes, who knows. Chris John is currenly not a lock for the second place in the runoff, and he's spent the past few weeks sniping at Vitter over every issue from coastal restoration to homeland security. Frankly, he's acting like a bit of a snot.
And oh yes, Chris John still has not explained his vote against the House amendment to kill U.S. funding for UN observance of our presidential election, which brings me to this:
I'm keeping track of this and the LA senate race on
Vitter Blog.