"David Thibodaux is polling behind two Democrats for third place"
It's still early. I hope Thibodeaux doesn't get cheated out of the run-off like he was in 1996.
The most interesting scenarios in both the 7th CD and in the Senate race would occur if the white moderates split the white Democrat vote and allow a black liberal to sneak into the run-off against a Republican. I think this is a possibility in the Senate race, as I've written before (see
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1095343/posts?page=4#4 ), although less likely in the 7th CD race, since the district's black population isn't all that high. But hopefully Vitter can get 50% on election day and forgo a run-off.