2004 US SEnate Predictions

22 Oct 04 | Stephen Boyd

[sboyd]

2004 US Senate Elections

These are the states I am watching:

Florida: I believe that Martinez will help Bush here. I think Cubans that are having doubts about Bush will support him when they vote for Martinez. I think most Hispanics would like to have Martinez representing them and that will push him past Castor. Castor comes off very old and too loyal to the “party.” And she is in real trouble when she has to explain about how she handled the “terrorist professor” when she was the president of USF. She has been around in politics for over ten years, too. I think Martinez will win.

Georgia: Isakson wins easily. What was Majette thinking in giving up that secure House seat? Now McKinney is back!

South Carolina: Poor, Inez! She had so much potential and now it seems to be almost gone. The national party might not be too ready to give up on her yet, though. I think Bush will carry DeMint with him to DC. Tenebaum may run for governor, though. Her problem is Kerry. Everywhere she goes she is confronted by him. She should say she supports Bush, but is still a Democrat. She won’t though because she is a loyal Democrat. She is not even from SC and did not go to school there. DeMint wins.

North Carolina: You know, redux usually never wins. Bowles is not very attractive and kind of geeky looking when compared to Burr. Bowles was leading for quite sometime, but now it seems his lead has faded. Bowles should have Edwards come campaign for him, but he won’t because Edwards would overshadow him. I think this one will be close, but Burr will win a few points. I think Bush will help Burr and I think Bush will win NC by a larger margin than most pollsters expect. Burr wins

Louisiana: The question now seems to be will Vitter get 50% plus one on lection night? That seems like a tall order to me. I would rather he got in a run off with Kennedy that John. The democrats usually do well in the run offs in La, especially when they are on an LSU football Saturday. Vitter is very charming and has real good shot at winning this seat. Kerry seems to have fled La, too. It depends on who gets in the runoff in this race on who wins. I give a Vitter a slight advantage, though.

Oklahoma: Things are looking brighter on Okie land. Coburn had to really fight off some very old allegations that he made a mistake in sterilizing a patient. This race reminds me of when Largent ran for governor and lost because of an independent candidate. Lately the polls have shown Coburn leading slightly. Okies seem to be coming home to their roots after flirting with Carson. I just do not see how it is possible for Bush to get 60% and Coburn to lose. Do any freepers have an example of such a blowout in the past? Coburn wins by a few.

Colorado: Coors is doing a lot better. Coors has wide appeal with his business and looks. Salazar does have ethnic appeal, but he is not very attractive and kind of wormy looking. Salazar is another senate candidate having a problem running from Kerry. If Bush wins by 5 or more then Coors will win. This race looks like the Allard-Strickland race again. Coors slight advantage.

Alaska: Knowles is a very good candidate. He would be smart to say he supports Bush, but is still a Democrat. I think he is slightly ahead right now, but how will also overwhelm the Bush vote? If any Republican deserves to lose it is Murkowski. This one does smell of nepotism. But she might just win. She has been very good in the US Senate. She is an incumbent and has feminine appeal. She is attractive, too. Knowles was governor and a Vietnam veteran, too. Knowles has to be careful of the Green Party vote here. The Green Party got 7% of the vote in the 2002 US Senate race here. Slight advantage for Knowles.

South Dakota: I will admit that this one is tough to call. Bush is on the ballot this time and Daschle is not Tim Johnson. Thune is popular and just might knock Daschle off. Will Daschle be able to get enough Bush votes? This one might be razor thin in either direction. The slightest advantage for Thune.

Illinois: This one is like a sad country song “Gone.” I fear will that Barack Obama will become a leader in the Democratic Party unless he puts his foot in his mouth. Dikta would have been perfect, though. Obama wins.

Honorable Mentions:

Wisconsin: The GOP should help this candidate. Feingold is beatable. Bush might win this state, too. This one could be a sleeper. Washington: Hopeful, but doubtful. Arkansas: Not likely.

[sboyd]

Its all about the turnout. The Democrats are too confident about their Senate prospects.

[elephant04]

Kentucky? I am getting increasongly worried, with the way the media is spinning some of Bunning's actions and words.