Aye, it would be better if this was happening in a midterm.
But Scott Brown is probably gonna win and Obama is probably gonna get around 60% in MA.
Of course in HI it will probably be closer to 70%.
I hope Charles Djou runs again too but getting from 47% to 50 in that seat would be a bitch even without Obama on the top of the ticket.
It would be better, but the tidal wave of 2010 didn’t reach Hawaii. As for Charles Djou, he could be running in an open seat.
Obama got like 70% in HI in 2008, but that does not mean that only 30% of Hawaiians vote Republican. In 2004, President Bush got 44% in Hawaii, and that was after polls showed a single-digit race and scared Dems put GOTV on overdrive. And even if Obama got 70% again in 2012 (which he won’t), it would be because he would once again con Hawaiians into voting for a “native son,” not because he increased liberal turnout significantly. Just like Nixon’s and Reagan’s huge majorities in 1972 and 1984, respectively did not tilt the electorate so much to the right that Democrats couldn’t win Senate elections, Obama getting 60%-70% in HI (and I think that he’ll get less than that, maybe 58%) won’t mean that 60%-70% of voters would prefer Hirono over Lingle, and you can rest assured that Obama won’t be campaigning in HI when he’ll be fighting for his political life in PA, OH, MI, WI, MN, NH, FL, VA, NM, IA, NV and CO.
The open-seat Senate race in HI in 2012 gives us a once-in-a-generation opportunity to win a Senate seat in that state, and Linda Lingle would be the strongest possible Senate candidate. Maybe she’ll fall short of winning, but we won’t know for sure unless she tries.
Impy, as you noted, Charles Djou is thinking of running for HI-01 again. He’s our best possible candidate there (I had identified him as such even before he announced for Abercrombie’s seat in 2009), and he should run a competitive race, especially if Hanabusa decides to enter the Senate race.
2012 could be the year in which we finally break through in Hawaii. We won’t know unless we try.