“Begich isn’t popular.”
Not much polling data out there about Begich since 2011, except for feb. 2013 PPP numbers that show him at 49% approve and 39% disapprove. His numbers tanked in 2010, like most dems, but are up now. Sarah would have an uphill fight to take that seat.
49% is barely 1% higher than his winning margin in 2008. Those are lousy numbers for an incumbent, especially for a Democrat in a Democrat poll. Begich is viewed as a fluke, in light of the fact his win was due entirely to baseless charges made against Ted Stevens.
I expect any credible Republican candidate will beat Begich, and that includes Palin (although Joe Miller might be too controversial). My personal preference is for Gov. Sean Parnell to run. If the Republicans can’t beat low-hanging fruit like Begich in a state that dislikes federal Democrats, they won’t take back the Senate majority in 2014.