Quinnipiac Poll
Sample is odd : R 25 D 32 I 34
Poll PDF
I think th enational R/D diff is more like D+2, but that is among Registered voters,
Likely voters would be R+2
So that is a swing of 5 for registered and 9 for likelys. An erlier CNN National poll had crossovers to Clinton way overstated versus crossovers to GOP and that is why that looked so bad. This poll has mostly +/- 1 in crossovers which matches 2012.
With that in mind, I suggest the correction for registered voters, which is what Quinnipiac says they are surveying.
Clinton vs GOP, first is what Quinnipiac says it is and second is making it more in line with the national reality
vs Rubio, 45-43, 42.5-45.5
vs Christie 45-40, 42.5-42.5
vs Paul 46-42, 43.5-44.5
vs Huckabee 47-42, 44.5-44.5
vs Bush 46-39, 43.5-41.5
vs Walker 46-41, 43.5-43.5
vs Cruz 48-41, 45.5-43.5
Taking the +7 D they had and the +2D nationally among registered, I adjusted all by 5. I took 2.5 from Hillary, and gave 2.5 to the GOP. Now as to the independents...
I let them be. Here is the margins of the GOPs vs Clinton.
Christie +5
Paul -1
Huckabee -4
Bush +1
Rubio -2
Walker Even
Cruz -8 The only ones really affected by the Ind are Cruz, Huckabee, and Christie. If you were to cut the Inds in half and split those among the R&Ds for the others...not much change in the outcome.
Christie would lose one, Huckabee would gain one, and Cruz would gain about 2...
Clinton 43-Christie 42
Clinton 42-Huckabee 43
Clinton 44.5-Cruz 44.5
These polling outfits have to be studied thuroughly, but it is not like 2012 where everyone overassumed the GOP turnout. This is actual data where the peculiarities can be seen when observed in context with historical data.