jjotto—what’s your take on the state of the campaigns at this point, 3 1/2 weeks out?
Conventionally, Cruz has a distinct advantage and Trump’s NYC persona is a disadvantage in Iowa, which does prefer lower-key candidates. But Trump’s celebrity appeal is unprecedented and might be huge. Or might disappear with bad weather.
Wa-a-ay overlooked is the Iowa GOP establishment, which was in disarray during the last two cycles. They could propel Christie to a surprise third place, or might help Cruz.
Carson and his supporters haven’t gone away.
Unknowns. That’s why there are actual votes instead of just relying on polls and projections.
Just to add: Bush and Rubio haven’t even tried to have an Iowa ground game.