Posted on 02/26/2016 8:15:05 AM PST by TraditionalMerica
A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee.
Professor Helmut Norpoth’s forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association.
Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election.
Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of defeating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth’s formula.
....
In contrast, Norpoth forecasted that a hypothetical presidential race with Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio on the Republican ticket would be a much closer race. The results showed Clinton with a 55 percent chance of winning the race against Cruz or Rubio with a 0.3 percent lead in the popular vote.
(Excerpt) Read more at sbstatesman.com ...
Minimum 97% chance? Yeah, OK dude.
probably because Trump can bring in disaffected Democrats and independents who are tired of Uppity Hussein’s love Islam and transvestites, and “campus rape” crap but who aren’t into the GOPe’s dogma on trade and SS/medicare
STOP THE PRESSES!
Do not let CW see this Post. No telling what she will do.
After Super Tuesday, he can stop ridiculing all the GOP candidates and he can concentrate on ridiculing Hillary and Bernie.
I suspect this is a get-out-the-vote effort for the Democrat.
could be, given how liberal humanities professors are.
Loosen your tin foil hat. It’s cutting blood circulation to your brain.
People should read the article. This professor’s analytical model accurately predicts the winner of every presidential election over the last 104 years.
Read this excellent article! Political elite class should be flipping grateful this is a bloodless revolution!
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=296&mn=17577&pt=msg&mid=15791036
Finally, a pundit gets it!
Trump can bring in ignorant leftists, populists, and low-skilled and uneducated voters by pandering to them, not by running as a conservative. Suggesting that Trump is a uniter or has a Reagan-like wide appeal is patently false; Trump brings in additional support at the expensive of Constitutional conservatives and moderate Republicans alike.
i did read it! perhaps the rest of the GOP will get on board sooner or later
At the end of the 2014 election democrats consoled themselves with the fact that more republicans were up for reelection in 2016 than Democrats. They expected to be able to take back the senate, and the republicans were dutifully keeping their chairs warm doing nothing. Trump, in a wave election, can bring in voters in districts we don't normally win. We can extend our lead if we get to work for down ticket candidates.
At the end of the 2014 election democrats consoled themselves with the fact that more republicans were up for reelection in 2016 than Democrats. They expected to be able to take back the senate, and the republicans were dutifully keeping their chairs warm doing nothing. Trump, in a wave election, can bring in voters in districts we don't normally win. We can extend our lead if we get to work for down ticket candidates.
Me too. The first time I read about this guy was in 2012 when he predicted that obummer was going to win and I was a big time non-believer and a loud mouthed curser about this crazy pinhead. But he was right and I was humbled.
I did some additional reading and study {I was a Math Major with a double minor, one of which was statistical analysis} and this guy's model is scary right.
Shared it on Facebook.
Super! People need to understand why we support Trump.
This is not an election, it is a revolution!
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