[dp0622]

From this article, it would appear Trump will get to 1237, or, falling a few short, he can turn to unbound delegates to make up the difference.

At least that’s what the article makes it sound like.

[kinsman redeemer]

Excuse me.

Trump needs to debate Cruz one on one.

But he’s Chick’n so he won’t.

He’ll get his butt handed to Himself. Believe me.

Trump is not man enough. He’s EVERYTHING HE HAS ACCUSED OTHERS OF BEING. You know the list.

And don’t give me this crap “They’ve already debated.” We both know that those debates were watered down entertainment venues. I’m talking about an issues debate, man to man.

[ifinnegan]

1h1 hour ago Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 The big story is that Trump seems to have a -- let’s not call it a “ceiling” -- but certainly lots of upward resistance in his support. (2/)

1h1 hour ago Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 Some states are stronger or weaker for Trump -- NY will be good -- but overall he’s not gaining much as other candidates drop out. (3/)

1h1 hour ago Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 That’s a big problem for Trump, especially given that Trump consistently performs mediocrely vs. his polls and wins few late-deciders. (4/)

1h1 hour ago Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 Trump’s at 35% now in California, per our polling average. If that’s what he gets on June 7, no way he gets to 1237 delegates by then. (5/)

1h1 hour ago Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 Despite all that, Trump has various ways to win nomination with or without getting to 1237 by California. Still probably the favorite. (6/)

1h1 hour ago Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 Plurality favorite or majority favorite? Have to sleep on it. Good argument that markets underprice both Trump and Cruz vs. Ryan etc. (7/)