Posted on 04/15/2016 8:57:58 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
He won a big victory in Wisconsin. He pierced the Donald Trump mystique. He even got some of the Capitol Hill lawmakers who regard him as a revolutionary and renegade to slink cautiously into his corner. By all logic, this should be a Ted Cruz moment — if only the next primary weren’t in New York.
But on Tuesday, New Yorkers go to their polling places, and though Cruz has been the beneficiary of the calendar before — his performance on Super Tuesday helped force out of the race Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, a demographically identical and philosophically similar rival — his success still depends on another man to stumble.
Or — just as frustrating to a man with a sense of destiny and a fast-forward vocabulary of ambition and determination — his success requires another man to fail to stumble across the finish line represented by the figure 1,237, the number of delegates required to win the Republican presidential nomination in Cleveland this July.
And even if that other man — Manhattan businessman Donald Trump, as the whole world knows — fails to clinch the nomination as the last primary votes are cast June 14, when the District of Columbia’s tiny Republican minority goes to the polls, there is no guarantee that the remainder candidate, which is what Cruz is, would prevail in a contested or open convention.
All of which is why, though the cage fight between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont is great sport, and perhaps precursor to an upset, the struggle between Trump and Cruz is more compelling.
“The focus of New York is on the Republicans, period,” Richard Ravitch, former head of the New York City transit system and a former Democratic lieutenant governor, said in a recent telephone conversation. “Bernie and Hillary are going to campaign, and they are going to fight, but it’s the Republican mash-up that’s really worth watching.”
That’s because, for all unexpecteds in the Democratic race — no one on New Year’s Day thought a 74-year-old self-proclaimed Democratic socialist from a state with three electoral votes would defeat the mighty Clinton machine in Michigan and Wisconsin, states carried by Clinton’s husband, Bill — the Republican race is a symphony of surprises.
The first of those surprises was that a candidate such as Trump would be a serious threat to win the GOP nomination. The second was that voters would tolerate torrents of invective and insult from a candidate for a position that Franklin Roosevelt, the president against whom modern presidents are measured, described as being primarily an office of moral leadership.
Now, as some powerful Republicans seek to deny Trump the party’s presidential nomination, some of the assumptions about Cruz are being challenged, especially the twin notions that the Texan could win no adherents among party leaders and that he has no ties to Republican thinkers and theorists.
In the event, Cruz has been Velcro to all manner of Republicans who agree with the notion that he is the only living soul who stands between Trump and the scene many Republicans dread the most: the real estate-and-casino tycoon standing with his arms raised high as balloons and confetti rain upon him in Cleveland.
Cruz, whose rhetorical repertoire includes the phrase “Washington cartel,” now has the support of increasing numbers of important GOP fundraisers. He has the allegiance not only of perhaps the most conservative lawmaker on Capitol Hill, Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, but also of, among others, former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida and Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who once suggested that deciding between Cruz and Trump was a Hobbesian choice.
“Whether it’s death by being shot or poisoning, does it really matter?” he asked.
In truth, Cruz has stronger relationships on the House side of the Capitol than he does on the Senate side, where he has toiled for about three years and, according to multiple accounts, set a Washington record for alienating his colleagues. But many of his Senate aides formerly worked in House offices and, in an example of how Washington works, they provide a bridge to their former bosses and their former colleagues.
Also, long before he formally entered the presidential race, or even before he mounted his 21-hour filibuster in 2013 against Obamacare, likely undertaken to attract attention from devout conservatives, Cruz began establishing himself as a moderator in forums designed to combat moderation in his party. These events, attended by Republican lawmakers and top staff, were convened to examine contemporary issues from a conservative viewpoint.
Now, those relationships — in some ways more important than ties within the Senate chamber — are bearing fruit. This is as former Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas launches a massive effort to pull in more senators, perhaps Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, the first black to be elected to both the House and the Senate and a conservative avatar, or Sen. Steve Daines, whose principal political attribute is that he represents Montana, which votes June 7 and could be important in blunting Trump’s drive to the nomination.
Of such things a convention majority might be built — or at least a wall against Trump. But first there is the New York primary.
Trump holds many, if not all, the cards. He was born in the state, reared in Queens, and works and lives in a glittery Manhattan tower that bears his name. Not since early February has his advantage in New York State polls fallen below 26 points, flaring to 52 points a month ago but now cruising along at just over 30.
Yet Cruz is playing on a bigger field, trying to peel off first-ballot votes from delegates elected but not formally pledged, or strategizing to conduct guerrilla wars in state capitals, such as Bismarck, North Dakota, and Denver, where delegates are floating like uncharged molecules and might ultimately become, in the Cruz mold, free radicals.
So while the television cameras are on the outdoor game — rallies, street encounters, visits to ethnic enclaves and upstate urban centers — Cruz is playing the sort of indoor game where he has surprising strength. Ted Cruz might have his moment in Cleveland.
“...though Cruz has been the beneficiary of the calendar before — his performance on Super Tuesday helped force out of the race Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida...”
This statement doesn’t even make any sense. Cruz finished a dismal 3rd in FL. It was Trump slaughtering Rubio in FL that drove him out of the race.
COLORADO is for CHEATERS! In 2012, 66,000 Republicans voted. Rick Santorum beat Mitt Romney with over 6% of the vote. Rick got only 6 delegates. Romney took 28 delegates Colorado’s good at cheatin’ Most the folks too high to notice.
The GOPe is against the social conservative - unless he's sold out to them, like Kim Jong Cruz.
LOL! I never get tired of seeing Kim Jong Cruz's chubby little cheeks in that TOTALLY apropos picture. :)
Another free advertisement for Cruz on FR.
agitprop. "The chocolate ration will be increased to 25 grams from 30 grams".
That's why propaganda guys are innumerate. :)
Hey! That's kind of disrespectful.
2ndDivisionVet contributes to FR by, well, contributing free advertisements for Cruz on FR.
So back off!
Cruz supporters would need rubber rooms, IF Trump were the beneficiary, of the PTA style delegate selection. So Cruz wins a few delegates, but will not win the state come November... And they call Trump supporters low information voters.
If our candidates have to be measured against FDR, it's no wonder we're so far down the socialist road.
At least by 'making an appearance' in Colorado and Nebraska and 'making his case' to 'earn' the delegates would have brought something,..but no he waited in NY until he had been thoroughly thrashed in Colorado and whining that the delegates chosen 'by participants' in the March caucuses didn't kiss his ring because He Is The Donald!.....
Furthermore if that's cheating then Trump needs to give back those he was awarded above the actual raw vote.
If you think the Donald can beat Hillary just by tweeting a few insults, you may want to check the 50+ most recent polls concerning a potential match up with Hillary. The most recent show Hillary up by 12%. Trump won just two of those polls, neither by more than the margin of error, and ‘none’ in 2016.
Remember, IF he wins his home state NY, as expected by the margin expected, it will be the ‘first’ time he has broken the 50% mark in any state, and that’s just of the Republican party, with some Dem crossover in open primaries. ...think Electoral College.
Well....The fact that Trump admits to taking advantage of and abusing our system for his own profit for the past 30 years certainly should give anyone with any degree of grey matter pause.
Yupp, absolutely mind boggling that Cruz had the entire GOP machine working overtime to make sure they denied Trump any delegates in Colorado, as seen by their #Nevertrump tweet after Cruz won them all. They just couldn’t hide their excitement at that fact that they worked the system to silence any potential Trump delegates.
Rules or no rules, does anyone think the average working class family with kids has the time and money to spend on fees to enter the CO convention system? It doesn’t take a genius to realize the system was designed for party regulars, activists and politicians...not the average voter. You shouldn’t have to read an instruction manual and pay enterence fees just to have your vote count.
COLORADO is for CHEATERS! In 2012, 66,000 Republicans voted. Rick Santorum beat Mitt Romney with over 6% of the vote. Rick got only 6 delegates. Romney took 28 delegates Colorado’s good at cheatin’ Most the folks too high to notice.
The GOPe is against the social conservative - unless he's sold out to them, like Kim Jong Cruz.
Cruz in Colorado was indeed a pyrrhic victory. Not exactly damaged goods, but certainly diminished.
No question, Wisconsin was a big victory for Cruz. Did he pierce the Trump mystique? No, not really. I don't know where they get this stuff.
Probably just sprang from their fertile minds.
Free Cruz advertisement again.
The Colorado GOP made rules, to depress the vote, so they could control, who they would give the delegates of their choosing, to the candidate of their choice. NOTICE I did not mention any candidates name. Try and step outside of the tiny Cruz box, and look at the big picture. You are ignoring the Colorado tweet after the shame election of 'NEVERTRUMP' was sent out. The game was rigged and fixed... it just so happened that Cruz was the NEVERTRUMP GOP's choice.
Trump actually outfoxed the Colorado GOP by NOT showing up and exposed them for their liberal/progressive election technique. Cruz so called victory by seducing delegates to NEVERTRUMP looks 'dirty' outside of Cruz box.. The mere fact you can cheer this process says you are part of the problem.
At least by 'making an appearance' in Colorado and Nebraska and 'making his case' to 'earn' the delegates would have brought something,..but no he waited in NY until he had been thoroughly thrashed in Colorado and whining that the delegates chosen 'by participants' in the March caucuses didn't kiss his ring because He Is The Donald!.....
Trump's whine as you call it has exposed the GOP as making and playing by the same rule making as the liberal/progressives... GOP is 'dirty' is the real perception. And the GOP once again turns off the majority of voters giving the election to the liberal/progressives...
Furthermore if that's cheating then Trump needs to give back those he was awarded above the actual raw vote.
Again you miss the point... Colorado GOP dissed the citizens of Colorado... who knows who would have won if there had been a 'real' primary election.
Boo-hoo.
Why do people keep pumping up Cruz?
It soon will be over for Lying Ted.
The debate over whether or not Senator Ted Cruz is eligible for the U.S. Presidency is about to end. It has now been confirmed that Senator Ted Cruz is neither a “U.S. natural born Citizen” or a “legal U.S. citizen.”
I want an AMERICAN for President not a Canadian.
What the HELL is wrong with you people. Get your head out of the sand hole. Wake up !!
The rules were put in place to put rinos like Bush or Kasich in.... You really think they were trying to guarantee delegate for a true conservative like Cruz? ....If that’s the case, Trump really was fatally lazy by not making an appearance..... Unless you are including him in the RINO category.... Given his past, that is understandable.
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