“I’ll take 15-17% which is where I think he tops out.”
That is what I am thinking which would still be very good.
It would be critical if he hits those numbers in PA, VA & MI....if he gets 15-17% of blacks there he wins all 3 states.
For a number of odd reasons related to group psychology, I think Trump either gets 8-12% or gets 25 to 30% of the Black Vote, and I do not think that he would get in between those ranges. Mostly it is rated to does the group identity hold.