Posted on 06/19/2016 11:31:17 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
When Donald Trump started his zany campaign —laced with racism, xenophobia, nasty remarks about women, and endless falsehoods — most analysts said he could not possibly win the Republican primaries. Yet he did so easily.
So, the very analysts who once derided his chances now wonder if he will win the presidential poll. He may be morally terrible, but is good at winning elections. His political incorrectness and willingness to speak his mind have made his rabid populism an electoral advantage, not disadvantage.
He has antagonized not just the intelligentsia but the entire Republican establishment. He has violated many basic Republican policy tenets such as low taxes, free trade, respect for women and traditional values, and the need to woo the Hispanic vote. He wants to raise taxes on the rich and scrap free-trade arrangements. He speaks contemptuously of women, boasts of the size of his sexual parts, and claims he can shoot anybody in the middle of the road and still get people to vote for him. His diatribe against a judge of Mexican origin has been denounced as plain racism by top Republicans including House Speaker Paul Ryan.
Why then does Trump win primaries? Because the voters are in a nasty mood, sick and tired of conventional politicians. Living standards used to rise steadily in the US, but no more. Incomes have stagnated, many people have lost good jobs in industry and make do with low-paid service jobs. Globalization, with its outsourcing and inflow of immigrants, is suddenly seen as a threat to jobs and identity. Moderate solutions from moderate politicians no longer seem to work, so voters look in despair for populist, extremist alternatives.
This explains the angst in the Democratic Party, where a hitherto unknown Bernie Sanders calling himself a socialist — a tag that used to be political suicide — gave Hillary Clinton a long, hard battle in the Democratic primaries. Both Trump and Sanders have tapped into the deep disgruntlement of voters.
Does this open the door for an unconventional presidential outcome? Can Trump win with his radical populism?
I believe Trump will thrashed by Hillary, not just beaten. She is unloved, evasive and devious, and widely disliked within her party. Many Sanders supporters declare passionately they will not vote for her in the presidential election.
The US voting system apportions electoral college votes to each state. The total of electoral votes can greatly magnify a small lead in the popular vote. In 2008, Barack Obama beat John McCain by 52.9% to 45.7% in the popular vote, but won a whopping 365 electoral college votes to McCain’s 173. In 2004, George W Bush scraped past John Kerry by 50.73% of the vote to 48.27%, but had a bigger electoral college victory of 286 seats to 251. In 1976, Jimmy Carter won 50.1% of the vote, just ahead of Gerald Ford’s 48%, but his electoral college lead was 297 to 240.
In photo-finish elections, a candidate with a minority of the popular vote can win, as Bush did against Al Gore in 2000. Barring a photo finish, a modest gap in votes translates into a substantial electoral college victory.
Political power in the US regularly swings between Republicans and Democrats. So, the clincher can be a party’s ability to enthuse and mobilize its supporters, and ensure they vote on election day. That alone can add a couple of percentage points to its candidate’s vote, making the difference between victory and defeat. Karl Rove, chief Bush strategist, won two close elections for his boss by getting Republicans out to vote on polling day.
Today, both parties face a quandary. Many Democrats, especially Sanders diehards, dislike Hillary. And the entire Republican establishment dislikes, sometimes abhors Trump. The result will be an election with a low turnout, with many unmotivated Republicans and Democrats staying at home.
But without question Trump will suffer far more on this score than Hillary. Trump has antagonized vast sections of the Republican Party, including its establishment. Many of these Republicans will ultimately vote for Trump, saying that with all his flaws he is better than Hillary. But he has disgusted so many partymen that maybe 10% or more will sit at home rather than vote for anyone.
Hillary Clinton will suffer a similar sit-at-home problem among Democrats, but these may add up to no more than 2-3% of all Democratic voters. On balance, far more Republicans will stay at home than Democrats. If that translates into a gap of say 5% of the popular vote it will sink Trump without a trace. He will be hammered.
An early opinion poll gave Hillary a lead of just 3% over Trump, small enough to be overcome. A more recent Bloomberg poll gave her a huge lead of 12%, virtually impossible to reverse by polling day. The latter is more in line with the logic of this column. I have taken a bet that Hillary will win at least 315 electoral college votes, well above the 270 required. Let’s see what happens.
*****
DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the author's own.
Yo swami! STFU and just open another casino on your reservation. /sarc
:)
LOL!
We used to call that crap. (4 other letters)
More water and naan, Swami! We’ve been waiting 10 minutes!
Last poll has Trump down 2%.. He will never be able to overcome that lead with only 5 months left.. /s
He’s not a swami, he’s an atheist Oxford grad, and huge Hillary supporter.
Republicans hate Trump and DemocRATS hate Clintoon so Clintoon wins in a landslide. I don’t get it. Must be a low information voter thing.
This time Trump is TRULY finished!!!!
“He has antagonized not just the intelligentsia but the entire Republican establishment”
And the problem is?
A muzzie-loving Hindu? How rare.
Omar Mateen, in 6 years, would have been just as eligible to run for President as her and Rubio, Cruz and Jindal.
Natural born citizen
Born here of citizen parents
“Swami, how I luv ya, how I luv ya, my dear ol’ swameeeee...”
I agree about the Cruz supporters and their ludicrously obvious stealth campaign. Like watching Inspector Clouseau.
Does the Indian Guru know why India sucks, and why all its people want to come be close to white people in the UK and USA?
Did Bill Kristol write this screed?
I stopped reading right there...
I SO agree with your statement!!! Butt hurt people should go to DU where they can all cry together!!!
Oh goody another pundit with NO understanding of the American voter chimes in
Whenever we see these Hillary talking points verbatim like this, we know the article is being written directly using the issued talking points memo and nothing else that's actually factual.
With over four months to go, these are going to get pretty stale. Hillary will need something stronger... perhaps they can start calling him a serial killer, child rapist, a gay Muslim terrorist double-agent or some such thing.
So, the very analysts who once derided his chances now wonder if he will win the presidential poll. He may be morally terrible, but is good at winning elections. His political incorrectness and willingness to speak his mind have made his rabid populism an electoral advantage, not disadvantage.
He has antagonized not just the intelligentsia but the entire Republican establishment. He has violated many basic Republican policy tenets such as low taxes, free trade, respect for women and traditional values, and the need to woo the Hispanic vote. He wants to raise taxes on the rich and scrap free-trade arrangements. He speaks contemptuously of women, boasts of the size of his sexual parts, and claims he can shoot anybody in the middle of the road and still get people to vote for him.
Why then does Trump win primaries?
Because the people actually paying attention to these candidates know you are lying thru your teeth...There are so many lies in these paragraphs there are too many to count...
And unfortunately 2ndDivisionVet continues to post these articles as tho they contain some actual facts...Too bad...
Then said David (Trump) to the Philistine, You come to me with a sword, and with a spear, and with a shield: but I come to you in the name of the Lord of hosts, the God of the armies of Israel, whom thou hast defied. This day will the Lord deliver you into mine hand; and I will smite you, and take your head from thee; and I will give the carcasses of the host of the Philistines (DNC, the Left, MSM) this day unto the fowls of the air, and to the wild beasts of the earth; that all the earth may know that there is a God in Israel. And all this assembly shall know that the Lord saves not with sword and spear: for the battle is the Lord's, and he will give you into our (freedom-loving American's) hands. 1 Sam. 17:45-47.
And when the Philistine arose, and came, and drew nigh to meet David, David (Trump) hastened, and ran toward the army (MSM, DNC, Hillary Supporters) to meet the Philistine. And David put his hand in his bag, and took a stone, and slung it, and struck the Philistine in his forehead, that the stone sunk into his forehead; and he fell upon his face to the earth. So David prevailed over the Philistine with a sling and with a stone, and struck the Philistine, and slew him; but there was no sword (MSM) in the hand of David. 1 Sam. 17:48-50.
So let it be written, so let it be done...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.