Do you know if he will have to serve half (10.5 months), before being released on parole for good behavior? If so, is it likely he will not be sent to the “big house”, but will do his time in a county jail?
As I understand it, the Federal discount is 15% for good behavior which, in his case, would probably include not being caught masturbating, a difficult rule for him to comply with in the fairly open setting of a minimum security facility where the inmates are often placed in cubicles, not cells.
Some County jails are worse.
I think the judge delayed incarceration to give him a chance to commit Arkancide.