How Trump Won Re-election in 2020

The New York Times ^ | July 26, 2018 | Bret Stephens

[2ndDivisionVet]

A sneak peek at the Times’s news analysis from Nov. 4, 2020.

Nov. 4, 2020

In the end, a bitterly fought election came down to the old political aphorism, popularized during Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 run against George H.W. Bush: “It’s the economy, stupid.” This time, however, it was the Republican incumbent, not his Democratic challenger, who benefited from that truism.

Donald J. Trump has been decisively re-elected as president of the United States, winning every state he carried in 2016 and adding Nevada, even as he once again failed, albeit narrowly, to gain a majority of the popular vote. Extraordinary turnout in California, New York, Illinois and other Democratic bastions could not compensate for the president’s abiding popularity in the states that still decide who gets to live in the White House: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Yet, unlike 2016, last night’s outcome came neither as a political upset nor as a global shock. Mr. Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have consistently polled ahead of Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and her running mate, Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, since July. The New York Times correctly predicted the outcome of the race in every state, another marked change from 2016.

In exit poll interviews, Mr. Trump’s supporters frequently cited the state of the economy to explain their vote. “What part of Dow 30,000 do the liberals not understand?” Kevin O’Reilly of Manchester, N.H., told The Times....

[Morpheus2009]

I would swap VA with NH there. I think New Hampshire is more likely given how it played out in 2016

[BigEdLB]

NH, ME more likely than VA which has been polluted by an influx of DC bureaucrats

[buckalfa]

"I don’t see it mentioned anywhere in the Constitution."

What is this Constitution thing you speak of ?? /s

[Dave W]

No, Virginia is not going to flip, but I think MN will flip sooner than NV. Trump lost by 250,000 votes in Virginia. It was not even the least bit close in this state. Every year, there are more and more New Yorker, Marylanders, etc that move in who vote Democrat. Fairfax county, the largest in the state with close to 1.2 million people and something like 700,000 voters - 1 out of 6 voters live here and 1 out of 4 voters live in Northern Virginia. In 2016, Trump received only 23% of the vote in Fairfax County. It was astounding the lack of support here, but not surprising since Trump came in a distan third in the republican primary in northern Va.

So please, don't think VA as being a swiing state - it isn't.

[lodi90]

I would be very surprised if he wins Minnesota. Minneapolis and St Paul dominate that state, and both, especially Minneapolis, are Moonbat Central, Minnesota. Unless of course the suburbs get flipped. My assessment of the ‘burbs, especially Edina, Eden Prairie, Lake Minnetonka area, is wannabe Westchester County, NY. At best RINO, never-Trumpers.

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Those suburbs have a front row seat to Mogadishu on the Mississippi shenanigans. I’ve got Democrat relatives there and they are not happy. I’m not saying they will certainly vote Trump but MN will be close again.

[KC_Conspirator]

Not VA. Filled with big gubbermint workers now.