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How Much Trouble Is Ted Cruz Really In?
FiveThirtyEight ^ | August 31, 2018 | Dhrumil Mehta and Janie Velencia

Posted on 09/03/2018 2:24:18 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

Poll of the week

A new Texas Senate poll came out this week showing Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke within 1 point of Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. It gave new life to a familiar question: Could Texas finally flip blue? Normally, this would be the point where we lecture everyone about the dangers of putting too much stock in one poll. But this poll wasn’t even much of an outlier — it came on the heels of a few others that also show O’Rourke within a few points of Cruz. That’s an awfully close race for a state that President Trump won by 9 points in 2016. Is it time to start betting on a Democrat in Texas?

We still say you should hold onto your chips.

OK, first the new survey: Emerson College’s poll of registered voters, conducted online and through robo-calls, reported 38 percent support for Cruz and 37 percent for O’Rourke, well within the poll’s 4-point margin of error. About a fifth of respondents remained undecided.

Emerson was the sixth consecutive pollster in our database to find the Texas Senate race within single digits....

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Texas; Campaign News; Polls; U.S. Senate
KEYWORDS: 2018; 2018midterms; beto; cruz; cruzelection; tedcruz; texas
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To: Nifster

IF he was, I CERTAINLY would not believe Rat in Pollster’s Clothing Nate Silver and the shitty record of his outfit. 538.com.


21 posted on 09/03/2018 2:40:52 PM PDT by jyo19
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

While I still harbor some grudge against Cruz for his primary battle with our President, I sincerely hope that President Trump can generate enough enthusiasm to put Ted over the top.

Word is President Trump is looking to secure the largest stadium for a massive GOTV rally for Cruz in October.

Regardless of any misgivings about Cruz, we all definitely need him to be reelected. The thought of a RAT winning in Texas is horrifying.

Moreover, I hear that O’Rourke wants to emulate O’Bummer and simply use the Senate as a springboard to run for president.


22 posted on 09/03/2018 2:41:02 PM PDT by edie1960
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
That everyone is asking if Lyn' Ted is in trouble, answers the question. Looking at the numerous articles Beto is topping him on raising money (both collecting most from outside the state), Beto has more enthusiastic crowds, Beto has more visible signage, Beto has more people actively helping his campaign, Beto is notably holding events, etc. What can Lyn' Ted claim? That he's begged President Trump to campaign for him. And worse, that he seems to be sitting around waiting for the lifeline.

Sure, among the FR echo chamber of Lyn' Ted pimps and supporters, he is fine, but I don't think anyone else agrees.

Personally, he appears to be using the Clinton playbook with about as much success as she did. His incompetent campaign manager isn't helping either.

And Lyn' Ted is playing the same sleazy fundraising scams as he did to much criticism in 2016. I have on my desk in front of me the latest "Official Washoe County Summons", "Summons Enclosed - Open Immediately." Some idiots never learn.

Trump will campaign for Lyn' Ted, suspect enough to not be criticized. If Lyn' Ted fails, it is his fault, not Trump's. I have figured all along that he will fail, hopefully Trump keeps a majority despite this. Lesson learned that should come from this is that damaged candidates like Lyn' Ted, Moore, and others should drop out and let Trump Republicans take their place. Good candidates win, bad ones lose. We need more winners.

23 posted on 09/03/2018 2:41:50 PM PDT by Reno89519 (No Amnesty! No Catch-and-Release! Just Say No to All Illegal Aliens! Arrest & Deport!y)
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To: jyo19

And it’s a poll by Emerson who is still calling 2016 for Hillary


24 posted on 09/03/2018 2:42:24 PM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Cruz is getting JUST WHAT HE ASKED FOR. He was an asshole when Trump won the nomination, and 90% of Republicans love Trump, and, I suspect an equal number agree that Cruz would have been CLOBBERED by Hillary.

Sometimes in politics you have to ‘take one for the team’. Cruz, even with hurt feelings, should have done just that, in the summer of 2016. He had his chance to MAN-UP.

But he chose to do otherwise, and now he finds us Trump fanatics looking at him about the way we looked at McCain in 2008 - a crappy guy, but still much better than the alternative. Yes, we’ll vote for him...but he shouldn’t expect much more from us, given his choices 2 years ago.


25 posted on 09/03/2018 2:45:47 PM PDT by BobL (I drive a pick up truck because it makes me feel like a man)
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To: Reno89519

What was your dog’s name that Ted Cruz killed?


26 posted on 09/03/2018 2:46:30 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: butlerweave
That was how many years ago? Bush Junior survived similar, plus even skipping out on his silver spoon military service. Plus, his wife killed her boyfriend. Texas drivers.

Not defending Beto, but from a distance, the event and discussion make Beto more real. Lyn' Ted is just unlikeable. He lied and lied about things, such as citizenship, health insurance, campaign funding, etc. Reeks of typical politician. He's universally disliked by anyone he's worked with. Sadly the facts.

Bet who most people would pick for a seatmate for cross country bus trip? Beto hands down.

Sad that Republican control of the Senate might hinge on the likes of Lyn' Ted and Never Trumper Amnesty Loving Heller. I don't envy Texas voters, I'm no longer one. I've got my own challenge here in Nevada.

27 posted on 09/03/2018 2:48:14 PM PDT by Reno89519 (No Amnesty! No Catch-and-Release! Just Say No to All Illegal Aliens! Arrest & Deport!y)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; Jane Long
😀👍🏻👊🏻
28 posted on 09/03/2018 2:48:59 PM PDT by TADSLOS (1. DonÂ’t Forget Nothing.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I’m from Texas and am not worried at all. Texas is conservative. It is noticable when someone who doesn’t even have a Texas accent claims that his name is “Beto” when it is really Robert. Since his last name is so Irish, he had to change his first name to make it sound more Latino. Texans know fakes when they see them.

Cruz was understandably against Trump in the beginning as a lot of people were. Now that Trump has proven to govern so conservatively, and is keeping his promises in spite of all the left wing hate thrown his way EVERY SINGLE DAY, we will crawl over glass to vote for ANY Republican so that things can continue to move in this direction going forward. Ted Cruz has been a great Senator for Texas. We love him here. There is no reason to worry about Ted. Every election cycle the media tries to make us think that their latest darling is going to win, and all that does is motivate the Texas masses to vote Republican. I know I am more motivated for this mid term election than I can remember ever being for a general, - and I am a hard core voter.


29 posted on 09/03/2018 2:49:09 PM PDT by Saveourcountry
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To: Nifster

They said GA and TX would turn blue inn 2016 LOL and then refused to call GA.
These people actually believe their own lies.


30 posted on 09/03/2018 2:50:06 PM PDT by manc ( If they want so called marriage equality then they should support polygamy too.)
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To: shalom aleichem

“I do, He prolonged his Trump hate for far too long.

Then he got himself filmed playing basketball”

Well then Texan Republicans are a pretty stupid lot because we have bigger fish to fry than that petty BS, and if they value all the stuff they like to shoot their mouths off about, then they need to keep that seat out of Dem hands and stop goofing around.


31 posted on 09/03/2018 2:50:40 PM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I think he will win re-eelction, and he should. We need him in the Senate. But this just shows that he’s basically not very likeable. Many of us felt this way in the primaries, and evidently it is also true to some extent in Texas, even though I suspect these polls are garbage.


32 posted on 09/03/2018 2:50:40 PM PDT by bigbob (Trust Sessions. Trust the Plan.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Nah.
Bunch of anti Cruz FR who live in hit hole ates wanna bitch at Texas.
If they hate Cruz so much, why don’t they clean out their own yard?
Just aying.


33 posted on 09/03/2018 2:50:43 PM PDT by hadaclueonce ( This time I am Deplorable)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Surprisingly Texas is setup so that it is an easy state to commit vote fraud. That is what would worry me.


34 posted on 09/03/2018 2:52:25 PM PDT by Revel
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To: hadaclueonce

I suggested that, to one in particular, doesn’t seem to have had an effect. :-(


35 posted on 09/03/2018 2:52:49 PM PDT by Jane Long (Praise God, from whom ALL blessings flow.)
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To: heshtesh

I stand with you, Cruz will beat the commie easily.


36 posted on 09/03/2018 2:53:22 PM PDT by matthew fuller (How many of today's voters have ever seen a half-dollar coin (or silver dollar)?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The only poll is Nov on election day.

Make sure you get yourself to the polls and take ten others with you.


37 posted on 09/03/2018 2:54:12 PM PDT by Hostage (Article V (Proud Member of the Deranged Q Fringe))
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To: bigbob

Lyndon Johnson, Dick Nixon and Jimmy Carter weren’t very likeable yet they all three were elected president.


38 posted on 09/03/2018 2:54:13 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: butlerweave

Blotto, the drunk hit and run expert


39 posted on 09/03/2018 2:54:30 PM PDT by RightGeek (FUBO and the donkey you rode in on)
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To: donozark

If we lose Texas, we lose America.

><

Yep, it would not be good.


40 posted on 09/03/2018 2:57:45 PM PDT by laplata (Leftists/Progressives have diseased minds.)
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