Expect the usual ten per cent hidden conservative support factor to reveal itself again, at least a modified red wave. Basically, after two years of Trump, what voters are going to be saying, “I don’t know, this isn’t going as well as I expected.” ?? Not many, and more than balanced by those saying “I think he’s not as bad as the media keep saying, and the Democrats are mentally ill.” That vote won’t be always eager to reveal itself to an anonymous survey taker either. Maybe there’s still the reluctant to admit factor at work.
...the reluctant to admit factor...
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Add in the increasing numbers of blacks and Hispanics supporting Trump, the Walkaways that include white women of all ages and the families worried about their male members and the number of people who do not answer poll calls.
Don’t forget that there is increased vigilance at the polls and more states w/Voter ID.
We have money, too. We not only have a ground game, it has been increased 4x over what we had in 2016. I see no apathy (I’m in Wisconsin). The progs here were certain they would recall Walker. Then they were certain they would defeat him. They were set to defeat Johnson. They were celebrating Hillary before election day.
We had a high turnout in my precinct for the primary. On the prog side, a socialist who blanketed the county with yard signs was defeated for state legislature. A self-proclaimed Marxist activist was lurking around the polling place, looking tense and worried.
Sabato needs to get out more and travel around. Sort of like Donald is doing.