Posted on 04/07/2019 7:16:59 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Donald Trump’s presidency has been anything but predictable.
It’s a continuous roller coaster and no one can really know what might follow, but underneath all the noise, the commander-in-chief has actually done a better job than many might have thought.
Yes, the presidency has been controversial with Trump often angrily-tweeting from behind his phone, but has he worked enough to get re-elected as Democrats gear up to remove the businessman-turned-politician out of the White House? With a successful midterm election from the Democratic Party, one might think the president holds a bleak chance of regaining office, however, things might not be what they seem.
In fact, if history is any indicator, President Trump is well on his way of holding the office for an additional four years.
You wonder why? All you see are unflattering headlines and angry outburst on media from the commander-in-chief but we have some news for you: Trump is here to stay.
Polls do not translate to actual results
According to a recent Fox News poll, less than 40 percent of voters would re-elect Trump, if the elections were to happen right now. A majority of the voters said they would rather see someone else hold office. When looking at the negative polls for the president one would assume that the public has spoken, however, traditionally, the question if a sitting president would be re-elected has usually failed to predict the actual outcome of the elections.
According to CNN’s Harry Enten, in 1980 and 1992, the voters’ poll resulted in favor of the sitting president, however, both the times the president would end up losing the elections. Similarly, 1984, 1996 and 2012 cycles, when the polls didn’t favor the president, he would go on to win.
Incumbency comes with its own set of advantages
A defending champion always seems like a safer bet. It is as simple as that.
Trump, like other presidents before him, has already run a successful campaign. He knows what worked for him and what didn’t. The re-elections are the incumbent’s playing field, one that he knows well. Anyone up against him will have to work that much harder to uproot him from the office.
History also supports incumbents. 15 out of 20 presidents seeking reelection, since 1900, have come out victorious at the end of their election campaign. It has been proved rather difficult to boot out a president from the office before they complete their eight years. In fact, the more controversial the president, the bigger the re-election victory and Trump is nothing if not controversial. even his critics would agree.
The Rating System
Right Bias This article is written from a Republican point of view.
Author Political Spectrum Winston Wang Left Libertarian Economic Viewpoint: 32% Left Social Viewpoint: 44% Libertarian
Hover to Expand
Our Verdict: The Democrats have yet to produce a viable candidate. Will Trump pull off another victory?
What is this?
Donald Trump’s presidency has been anything but predictable.
It’s a continuous roller coaster and no one can really know what might follow, but underneath all the noise, the commander-in-chief has actually done a better job than many might have thought.
Yes, the presidency has been controversial with Trump often angrily-tweeting from behind his phone, but has he worked enough to get re-elected as Democrats gear up to remove the businessman-turned-politician out of the White House? With a successful midterm election from the Democratic Party, one might think the president holds a bleak chance of regaining office, however, things might not be what they seem.
In fact, if history is any indicator, President Trump is well on his way of holding the office for an additional four years.
You wonder why? All you see are unflattering headlines and angry outburst on media from the commander-in-chief but we have some news for you: Trump is here to stay.
Polls do not translate to actual results
According to a recent Fox News poll, less than 40 percent of voters would re-elect Trump, if the elections were to happen right now. A majority of the voters said they would rather see someone else hold office. When looking at the negative polls for the president one would assume that the public has spoken, however, traditionally, the question if a sitting president would be re-elected has usually failed to predict the actual outcome of the elections.
According to CNN’s Harry Enten, in 1980 and 1992, the voters’ poll resulted in favor of the sitting president, however, both the times the president would end up losing the elections. Similarly, 1984, 1996 and 2012 cycles, when the polls didn’t favor the president, he would go on to win.
Incumbency comes with its own set of advantages
A defending champion always seems like a safer bet. It is as simple as that.
Trump, like other presidents before him, has already run a successful campaign. He knows what worked for him and what didn’t. The re-elections are the incumbent’s playing field, one that he knows well. Anyone up against him will have to work that much harder to uproot him from the office.
History also supports incumbents. 15 out of 20 presidents seeking reelection, since 1900, have come out victorious at the end of their election campaign. It has been proved rather difficult to boot out a president from the office before they complete their eight years. In fact, the more controversial the president, the bigger the re-election victory and Trump is nothing if not controversial. even his critics would agree.
Photo by Element5 Digital on Unsplash
Economic growth plays a huge role
Trump’s biggest concern as a president is the economy and if all goes well for the commander-in-chief, it could be the biggest factor in what drives him over the line in the 2020 elections.
The GDP growth and the falling numbers of unemployment bring good news for the president.
The GDP has been steadily growing under the Trump presidency. Should Trump avoid an economic recession by 2020, his overall numbers should secure him the votes he needs to be president once again.
The unemployment has also been going down as they were by the end of Barack Obama’s presidency. If these two economic indicators are to go by, Trump will probably emerge victorious.
People want to watch Trump
Love him or hate him, Trump has his appeal.
People want to watch him. Whether it was as a businessman in a reality TV show or a president running the country, Trump has managed to grab people’s attention – and keep it.
It may seem like nothing but it is important.
For a representative of the people, it is important that people pay attention to what he has to say. People might not agree with Trump, yet they listen to what he has to offer. While many Democrats hope that America will finally tire of the “Trump Presidency Show,” the latest numbers show no decline in viewership.
The Rating System
Right Bias This article is written from a Republican point of view.
Author Political Spectrum Winston Wang Left Libertarian Economic Viewpoint: 32% Left Social Viewpoint: 44% Libertarian
Hover to Expand
Our Verdict: The Democrats have yet to produce a viable candidate. Will Trump pull off another victory?
What is this?
Donald Trump’s presidency has been anything but predictable.
It’s a continuous roller coaster and no one can really know what might follow, but underneath all the noise, the commander-in-chief has actually done a better job than many might have thought.
Yes, the presidency has been controversial with Trump often angrily-tweeting from behind his phone, but has he worked enough to get re-elected as Democrats gear up to remove the businessman-turned-politician out of the White House? With a successful midterm election from the Democratic Party, one might think the president holds a bleak chance of regaining office, however, things might not be what they seem.
In fact, if history is any indicator, President Trump is well on his way of holding the office for an additional four years.
You wonder why? All you see are unflattering headlines and angry outburst on media from the commander-in-chief but we have some news for you: Trump is here to stay.
Polls do not translate to actual results
According to a recent Fox News poll, less than 40 percent of voters would re-elect Trump, if the elections were to happen right now. A majority of the voters said they would rather see someone else hold office. When looking at the negative polls for the president one would assume that the public has spoken, however, traditionally, the question if a sitting president would be re-elected has usually failed to predict the actual outcome of the elections.
According to CNN’s Harry Enten, in 1980 and 1992, the voters’ poll resulted in favor of the sitting president, however, both the times the president would end up losing the elections. Similarly, 1984, 1996 and 2012 cycles, when the polls didn’t favor the president, he would go on to win.
Incumbency comes with its own set of advantages
A defending champion always seems like a safer bet. It is as simple as that.
Trump, like other presidents before him, has already run a successful campaign. He knows what worked for him and what didn’t. The re-elections are the incumbent’s playing field, one that he knows well. Anyone up against him will have to work that much harder to uproot him from the office.
History also supports incumbents. 15 out of 20 presidents seeking reelection, since 1900, have come out victorious at the end of their election campaign. It has been proved rather difficult to boot out a president from the office before they complete their eight years. In fact, the more controversial the president, the bigger the re-election victory and Trump is nothing if not controversial. even his critics would agree.
Photo by Element5 Digital on Unsplash
Economic growth plays a huge role
Trump’s biggest concern as a president is the economy and if all goes well for the commander-in-chief, it could be the biggest factor in what drives him over the line in the 2020 elections.
The GDP growth and the falling numbers of unemployment bring good news for the president.
The GDP has been steadily growing under the Trump presidency. Should Trump avoid an economic recession by 2020, his overall numbers should secure him the votes he needs to be president once again.
The unemployment has also been going down as they were by the end of Barack Obama’s presidency. If these two economic indicators are to go by, Trump will probably emerge victorious.
People want to watch Trump
Love him or hate him, Trump has his appeal.
People want to watch him. Whether it was as a businessman in a reality TV show or a president running the country, Trump has managed to grab people’s attention – and keep it.
It may seem like nothing but it is important.
For a representative of the people, it is important that people pay attention to what he has to say. People might not agree with Trump, yet they listen to what he has to offer. While many Democrats hope that America will finally tire of the “Trump Presidency Show,” the latest numbers show no decline in viewership.
According to The New York Times, prime-time ratings for CNN, MSNBC and Fox News have seen a constant rise since 2014.
Nell Scovell, a veteran comedy writer recalled when a cab driver once told her that he would be voting for Trump and the only reason for his vote was that the then-presidential nominee made him laugh.
Now, 3 years into his presidency, Trump has successfully kept the audience glued to their screens.
Midterm elections, historically, mean nothing
Winning 40 extra seats in the 2018 Midterm elections, the Democrats gained control of the House, while Republicans kept control of the Senate.
While the ending of the Republican Federal Trifecta had many people predicting the future of the presidency based off of the 2018 midterm results, previous presidencies have shown that these results mean next to nothing when it comes to the re-election for Trump.
Bill Clinton’s party, in 1994, and Obama’s party, in 2010, both lost House seats in midterm elections (Clinton lost 52 while Obama lost a whopping 63), yet, two years later they came out on top in their re-election bid by a huge margin. Considering these results, history proves that midterm election result may switch control of the House or Senate but they hold a much smaller significance when it comes to the president.
Weak Democratic nominations
Another advantage for Trump is that we still do not know who is going up against him. There are over a dozen Democrats going head-to-head to win the party’s presidential nomination.
However, it is quite difficult to predict which way the Democrats are going to lean. Will they go the Joe Biden way, a seasoned politician that the public is familiar with? In recent years, John Kerry, John McCain, and Hillary Clinton have all faced defeats. People, apparently, do not want the same faces, who have had their chance, to run America.
Or, will they go for candidates like Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren? Both the women represent the far-left and, if nominated and elected, would become the first female president of the US. However, extreme ideologies scare people and many voters might be inclined to vote for Trump because they do not want an extreme cultural change.
Therefore, if the president can avoid an economic recession, it is very likely that he would resume his days at the Oval Office with a successful re-election bid in 2020.
Yes, Trump should win. And every article saying it makes me nervous. There are no guarantees, we don’t need complacency. Swing states can swing, events are unpredictable.
I was not surprised to see Trump win. I will be slightly surprised if he is reelected. For various reasons.
God help us if a democrat is elected in 2020.
Hopefully win by larger margin this time around. Wish some of those who didn’t vote for Trump would realize we’re not electing a Pope. We’re electing a President to fix things and he has done quite well with that despite the opposition and the resistance. So they need to just get over their “purity test” and look at the crooked Dems and realize Trump is heads & shoulders above anything they’ve got professional or personal.
Will it forestall or incite the inevitable showdown with the left? (I could easily ask the same of a Trump defeat in 2020.)
Trump will Probably Win 2020
**************************************************
What do you mean ‘probably’...he has done more in 3 years than any POTUS has done in 8...
You Trump haters need to find an island to go live on if you don’t like what the rest of us Patriots like...hope it doesn’t ‘tip over’ course we won’t be losing much if it did...the RAT party isn’t worth the time or trouble anymore, such sickness going on within itself...they eat each other every chance they get!!!
And don’t bother responding to this post, I could care less only care about Our Country and Our President and YES he is GOING TO WIN AGAIN AND KEEP MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN...HOPE THAT CHOCKS YOU RATS!!!
He has a much harder hill to climb this time. 1.5 million felons eligible to vote in Florida. He wont be running against the most hated political candidate in history this time. The Democrats machine wont take him for granted this time either. The MSM, social media, and inner city cheating machine will be ramped up beyond comprehension. The illegal interstate compact to nullify the electoral college may be ready by then. I honestly don’t think he has much of a chance.
Hey Winston!
That should read, "...businessman-turned-LEADER..."
WTH?
I know this has been said before, but the fate of freedom and the survival of America is in the balance. We, meaning all patriots, those who love freedom and prosperity, and most of all, those cherish their children, must commit our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor to see that Donald Trump wins a second term. It’s hasn’t been this important since our forefathers made the same commitment in 1776.
Is someone on this thread a Trump Hater?
I don’t think so.
Hand-wringers may not like his style but President Trump is a fighter and knows how to git ‘er done.
Please Lord. Then let’s start a campaign to repeal the 22nd Amendment. I don’t want it to succeed, I just want to drive the leftist scum further toward the ledge of complete insanity.
The illegal vote and the outright fraud is what concerns me. Quite a lot. Trump et al. had better have processes in place and tactics planned out to combat the inevitable Dem cheating in 2020.
And if he does win, then what? It's not like there has been a wave of Trump wanabees jumping into the fray. It's more like the GOPe have resigned themselves to waiting him out. There is no big pushback on the Dem attacks on DJT's character and Presidency. There is no apparent Trump II waiting in the wings. They will let him serve out a second term then it's back to business as usual.
It's like an air bubble in the Titanic. It may be sinking more slowly but it's still sinking.
I take my local paper for the local news, but like many, they publish some national stories from the AP to fill space. I skim them just to get a sense for how strong the anti-Trump bias is.
Today in a story about the border, the AP says “As usual, Trumps comments about the border were a mix of fact and fiction”.
Now that’s basically calling the President a liar. Not that long ago, such a statement would have been scandalous, proof demanded, and taken seriously. But the liberal media has so overplayed it’s hand, even statements like this don’t even raise an eyebrow. The 15% or so who believe it see it as confirmation and the rest of the country either doesn’t bother reading it in the first place or ignores it like we ignore everything on CNN or MSNBC. The liberal media bias is already factored into peoples attitudes and nothing they publish is going to move the needle one way or the other.
If Trump would win re-election today he will win re-election in 2020, and the MSM is powerless to change that fact.
Trump winning will not guarantee America’s survival, but I believe his loss will guarantee our imminent demise.
North Carolina 9th district sure doesn’t help our side. If we do anything, that will be brought up. Frustrating. Meanwhile California stole 6 seats at least.
Regan crushed the '84 election. Shows that polls are just propaganda pushed by the media to drum up their own candidates and/or garner more campaign ad revenue.
I am considering helping develop and push a Measure in Oregon REQUIRING the Sec of State to verify all Registered Voters as Citizens.
FYI, 2ndDivisionVet isn’t a trump hater ...
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