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Do the models factor in the vote fraud that will be in high gear in 2020 and the illegals that will vote in far haigher numbers than previously? The SocialDemocrats showed themselves in the last two elections that fraud and all the fraud tactics get no real blowback. Counts are accepted no matter what the disparity with available voters. The SocDem ruled cities in certain states have for many cycles attempted to provide the winning vote margin for their states by vote manufacture. In 2020 it will happen in ALL SocDem cities. There will be complaints as usual but all the extra votes, even obviously fraudulent votes will meekly be accepted by the Republicans as legitimate even as they bitch about it minimally. The SocDems thought they had made their Revolution in 2016. They will go for broke in 2020. It doesn't much matter who winds up at the top of the ticket for them. I don't know how DJT can get control of the voting as it is in the Constitution that it is a State matter but he must.

Positive ID
voting day only voting
Voting at designated polling places only.
Paper ballots.
No absentee voting except possibly for serving military.

> Do the models factor in the vote fraud that will be in high gear in 2020... <

The Left got lazy, and overconfident, in 2016. That won’t happen again. So voter fraud and media bias will be huge in 2020. Ballot boxes will be stuffed. And October Surprises will be prepared.

That’s why I wouldn’t take an even-money bet that Trump will be reelected in 2020. Maybe that’s my natural Hungarian pessimism. But I’ve got to call ‘em as I see ‘em.

I agree with your criteria and have been posting almost the same for years now.

I think there should be two days of voting available on the first weekend after the first Tuesday in November. None of this early voting. It's not necessary.

obviously fraudulent votes will meekly be accepted by the Republicans...”

If I think there is fraud, what the party does about will be irrelevant. ..