Earth almost put on impact alert

BBC News ^ | Tuesday, 24 February, 2004 | Dr David Whitehouse

[Stoat]

Earth almost put on impact alert By Dr David Whitehouse BBC News Online science editor

Astronomers have revealed how they came within minutes of alerting the world to a potential asteroid strike last month. Some scientists believed on 13 January that a 30m object, later designated 2004 AS1, had a one-in-four chance of hitting the planet within 36 hours.

It could have caused local devastation and the researchers contemplated a call to President Bush before new data finally showed there was no danger.

The procedures for raising the alarm in such circumstances are now being revised.

At the time, the president's team would have been putting the final touches to a speech he was due to make the following day at the headquarters of Nasa, the US space agency.

In it he planned to reset the course of manned spaceflight, sending it back to the Moon and on to Mars, but he could have had something very different to say.

If... the call had been made to the president it would have been disastrous Brian Marsden, Minor Planet Center He could have begun by warning the world it was about to be hit by a space rock. Bush would not have known where it would impact - only somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. Experts would have been bouncing radar signals off the huge rock as he spoke in order to get more information about its trajectory.

At about 30m wide, the asteroid was cosmic small fry, not the type of thing to wipe out the dinosaurs or threaten our species, but still big enough to cause considerable damage after exploding in the atmosphere.

Potentially, the loss of life could have been much worse than 11 September.

In the end, Bush made no such announcement, but astronomers have admitted they were on the verge of making the call.

Shall we call the President?

In a paper presented at this week's Planetary Protection conference in California, veteran asteroid researcher Clark Chapman calls it a "nine-hour crisis".

He explains how word reached the astronomical community of an asteroid that had just been discovered by the twin optical telescopes of the Linear automated sky survey in New Mexico.

The Minor Planet Center in Massachusetts - the clearing house for such observations - posted details on the internet requesting attention from astronomers, one of whom noticed something peculiar. The object was expected to grow 40-times brighter in the next day - a possible sign that it was getting closer, very rapidly.

But with data from just four observations available, the uncertainties were large. There were many possible orbits the object could be on, and the majority of them did not threaten the Earth.

What to do? Tell the world about the uncertain situation or wait for more data?

For some astronomers, events reached a crescendo when Steven Chesley, a researcher at Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, looked at the available data and sent an e-mail saying the asteroid had a 25% chance of striking the Earth's Northern Hemisphere in a few days.

It was then that astronomers Clark Chapman and David Morrison, chair of the International Astronomical Union's Working Group on Near Earth Objects, contemplated picking up the telephone to the White House.

'Jumped the gun'

But many astronomers did not agree that waking up President Bush would have been wise.

"They completely misread the situation," said Benny Peiser of Liverpool John Moores University in the UK. "There was plenty of time to get other observers on the job."

Others also believe the call would have been premature.

"That would have jumped the gun before we knew much about the object," said Brian Marsden, of the Minor Planet Center.

"I find it incredible that such action was contemplated on the basis of just four observations. That is just not enough to yield a sensible orbit. "There was no need to panic as it was obvious that the situation would have been resolved, one way or another, in another hour or two," he told BBC News Online.

Fortunately for all concerned, shortly after the ominous Chesley e-mail, an amateur astronomer managed to dodge the clouds and take a picture of a blank patch of sky.

This was significant because if 2004 AS1 really was going to hit the Earth, it would have been in the amateur's sights. The fact that it was absent meant the rock would not strike us.

But Chapman says in his presentation that if it had been cloudy, and no more observations could have been obtained at the time, he would have raised the alarm.

Marsden disagrees. "If it had been cloudy and the call had been made to the President it would have been disastrous."

Many astronomers recognise that they a false alarm could have brought ridicule on their profession. They are calling for more planning and less panic if it should happen for real next time.

And 2004 AS1? It turned out to be bigger than anyone had thought - about 500m wide. It eventually passed the Earth at a distance of about 12 million km - 32 times the Earth-Moon distance, posing no danger to us whatsoever

[Brad’s Gramma]

This is supposed to be a joke or sumthin', right?

[festus]

Some scientists also believe in global warming.

Some in evolution

Some in little green men.

This article is just one more reason I don't believe in scientists.........

[Stoat]

I wish that it was.

[tbird5]

Can you image the panic? Holy cow!

[Prime Choice]

At about 30m wide, the asteroid was cosmic small fry, not the type of thing to wipe out the dinosaurs or threaten our species, but still big enough to cause considerable damage after exploding in the atmosphere.

Potentially, the loss of life could have been much worse than 11 September.

Unless the composition of this asteroid was of the thermonuclear variety and was moving at multiple Mach and at a trajectory that would have put it on a perpendicular collision course with Earth, this article strikes me as horrifically alarmist. The Columbia shuttle was appreciably bigger than this asteroid and its burn-up in the atmosphere posed little threat to the terran-bound.

[stuck_in_new_orleans]

wow, can you imagine the mass panic if they would have said it was going to hit in acertain part of the world...lets say the western US for example.

[stuck_in_new_orleans]

but the difference is that the space shuttle is desined to slow it down and help it become steer-able....right? Its not like a rock where it just slams into the planet

[KangarooJacqui]

This is supposed to be a joke or sumthin', right?

In my amateur skygazing opinion, no - just a case of too few sources being consulted to begin with.

Read this link http://www.birtwhi.demon.co.uk/Gallery2004AS1.htm and see for yourself. I'm more likely to trust an independent observatory than I am the BBC News...

[KangarooJacqui]

A ping for your thoughts?

[TheLion]

Do you tell the world of a real collision coming and invite mass panic? A tough call!

[TheLion]

This object would be traveling at speeds of 80 miles a second or greater. The energy has to be expended somewhere. It would make the Columbia seem like a firecracker in comparison.

[TigersEye]

And 2004 AS1? It turned out to be bigger than anyone had thought - about 500m wide.

[Texaggie79]

Let's get it on!

[The Westerner]

Dr. Bill Wattenburg mentioned on his show one night that instead of letting the old satelites fall back to earth, the scientists should use them to deflect asteroids when necessary, as in this potentially disastrous case. He considered it an egregious mistake not to do so.

[Stoat]

Although the mass and velocity of the asteroid would likely be exponentially greater than the space shuttle and would therefore be likely to be a bit more of a concern to those of us on the ground, your point is well taken.
I think that this article is valuable in that it illustrates the level of confusion that persists with the issuance of early warnings, and thereby paints the scientific community and Government as unable or unwilling to address this concept coherently. It's a reminder that we can't trust governmental agencies for much, including any warnings of asteroids due to spoil your afternoon barbecue.
Furthermore, I feel that the article is valuable because it tells of something that happened a MONTH ago...illustrating the lack of interest in disclosure on the part of the scientific community as well as the incompetence of the mainstream media in it's inability to uncover this item in anything close to a timely fashion.

Thank you for your comments :-)

[KangarooJacqui]

It's really just a case of one more thing we can't do anything about.

Tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, cataclysmic storms and other natural events fall into this same category.

Whether we trust the scientists or not, in the end, has very little to do with it. There's not a heck of a lot we could have done to ameliorate the effects of this asteroid, HAD it been heading our way... movies like "Armageddon" notwithstanding.

[festus]

I can't imagine much panic if the folks in charge at DoD had actually found out about it and not laughed to hard about it.

We'd just fire up the ol' SDI systems that we have already deployed and blast the bugger out of the heavens. Either that or cut loose with a slightly reprogrammed ICBM or any number of things.

I can just see this bonehead scientist who can't even consistently interpret data calling the whitehouse. Hello, yes we are all going to die because this major asteriod is going to hit the earth and I need to speak to the president right now........

Would make a good sat-night-live skit......

[Stoat]

I doubt that most government agencies would be eager to alert the public of such an impending disaster. Everyone would be in CYA mode and unwilling to take on such a responsibility and it's potential outcomes.
To make such an announcement requires true leadership, which is generally in short supply.

[BJungNan]

No problem. All they had to do was send someone up and land on the thing, drill a hole, set the charge and fly off before it goes...and strikes Earth.