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"Morrell has a shot at the runoff against two conservative Democrats."

A black state legislator entering the Louisiana Senate race is certainly good news for David Vitter's hopes of winning the December run-off. Let's see, 32.5% of Louisianans are black, and I estimate that blacks will comprise around 30% of the LA vote in November (it's usually less than that, but I would assume that a black Senate candidate running on a presidential election year would boost that number). Let us be conservative and assume that Morrell would get 55% of the statewide black vote (if anything, he should do better than that) and 5% of the non-black vote (he will probably do okay with white Democrats in the New Orleans area), which would give him 20% of the total vote. With two conservative Democrats running, I would guess that Vitter and any other Republican who jumps in will combine to get around 45%. That would leave 35% to be split between Chris John and John Kennedy. It would be difficult for either John or Kennedy to hold the other below 15% and thus be able to get over 20%, so I would rate Morrell's chances of making the run-off as very good. And in a December run-off, Vitter would beat Morrell by at least 60% to 40%, since conservative white Democrats are not going to vote for Morrell in great numbers. So Morrell's entrance into the Senate race is excellent news for our chances of finally winning a Senate race in Louisiana. However, I would expect on John Kennedy getting a lot of pressure to drop out so as to give a better chance to Chris John, who is John Breaux's appointed successor. And Morrell's ability to get out the black vote in November could very well help Democrats running in House races in the competitive 3rd, 5th and 7th congressional districts, and would certainly help John Kerry's candidacy in the state (although I don't think it would be enough to make the state competitive in the presidential race). But all in all, this is excellent news.

An interesting question would be how much carryover from the conservative Democrat vote that goes to Bush will go to Vitter. If Vitter gets votes he might not have gotten in an off year election, that could depress John and Kennedy's vote totals a bit more and help Morrell get into the runoff.

As far as Morrell making LA more competitive for Kerry, I'm not sure he will. Gore was very popular with blacks and he still lost Louisiana. Plus he's not as well known, not as known as Cleo Fields and Bill Jefferson, and they both lost in landslides statewide. Kerry is basically the wrong type of Democrat to win in LA, he doesn't have that Bill Clinton/Edwin Edwards sheen that some down here like.

With two conservative Democrats running, I would guess that Vitter and any other Republican who jumps in will combine to get around 45%.

That might be a little optimistic. Although it depends what kind of campaign Vitter runs.

It will be VERY interesting to see who lines up behind Morrell's candidacy, especially what blacks. I would guess that Ray Nagin might endorse him -- he said he endorsed Republican Jindal in 2003 because both candidates were more conservative than his taste dictated. Endorsing Morrell would shore up his (Nagin's) standing in New Orleans, no?

How much longer should blacks be expected to wait before white Democrats will 'let' them run statewide? That's a question that will be asked, and that does not have a satisfactory answer.