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On a recent airline trip I happened to sit next to a scientist who investigates the plague for a large university medical school (he was a research and teaching physician). He advanced the theory that it would be highly unlikely, in fact, almost impossible, for the plague to gain any foothold in the U.S., Japan or Western Europe today because of the frequency with which today's societies showers or bathes with soap and hot water. The antibacterial effect of bath soap would deter the growth and be a hostile environment for the bug that causes the symptoms and sequence of the disease.

Europeon cities were filthy in 1349. I can't imagine the smells that they put up with.

Sounds reasonable. I think SARS spread in China the way it did do a lack of understanding in basic hygiene and housekeeping (i.e. running water over an object cleans it.)

It's been theorized that the Y. pestis in the Middle Ages was a much more virulent strain than it is now. I don't think so. Sanitation and antibiotics today prevent any disasters. Although it is theoretically possible, it is technically unlikely to produce an antibiotic resistant strain of plague.If they did, that would be a bit of a bugger.

On an interesting side note: The History Channel had a show a few months back discussing WWII bio-terrorism. They said the Japanese had discovered a way to infest fleas with biological agents (plague, typhoid, diphtheria... All infectious diseases naturally occurring in order not to initially raise suspicion) and had devised a bomb with the ability to unload these fleas over a large population (They stated San Diego was the target). They claimed they had been quite "successful" in using a crop dusting method in Manchuria to infect the population leading to many deaths. Suspicion were never raised since the diseases were endemic to the area.

All in all I think large scale bio-terrorism is not something to worry about. You can't predict it's borders and today's terrorist are to into the shock value of their endeavors. Kill a massive amount of innocent quickly makes them proud of themselves. It the nature of the beast.

He advanced the theory that it would be highly unlikely, in fact, almost impossible, for the plague to gain any foothold in the U.S., Japan or Western Europe today because of the frequency with which today's societies showers or bathes with soap and hot water. The antibacterial effect of bath soap would deter the growth and be a hostile environment for the bug that causes the symptoms and sequence of the disease.

That means France is still at risk.

The antibacterial effect of bath soap would deter the growth and be a hostile environment for the bug that causes the symptoms and sequence of the disease.

Bacteria resistant bugs are multiplying.