[AuH2ORepublican]

The 2nd congressional district of Mississippi is 63.2% black, but it would be a mistake to write it off this fall. Black consrvative Clinton LeSueur did a great job in 2002 getting the GOP vote and then some against Democrat incumbent Bennie Thompson, getting 43% of the vote in a district in which Bush got 41% in 2000. But the formula for LeSueur to win the election is obvious: Keep his lock on the (heavily Republican) white vote while increasing his percentage of the black vote.

While blacks comprise 63.2% of the district's population, they probably comprise no more than 55% of the electorate. That means that if LeSueur continues to get 80% of the white vote (which is typical in that part of Mississippi), he would need approximately 26% of the black vote to pull off the upset. LeSueur got only 12% of the black vote in 2002, not much more than what Bush got in the district in 2000, so he needs to convince an additional 14% of black voters to think about the issues involved and not vote reflexively for the candidate with a D next to his name. Most black Mississipians, like most white Mississippians, support traditional marriage, value their freedom to religious expression, do not look kindly upon abortion, and would like a hand up, not a handout. Bennie Thompson does not represent the beliefs of his constituents, and if just an additional 14% of black voters in the district vote based on their principles, they will elect Clinton LeSueuer as the first black Republican to represent a black-majority Southern district in Congress in over 100 years (and the first to represent such district nationally since 1935).

I look forward to contributing to Clinton LeSueuer's campaign and supporting him in any way possible. I never thought I would write these words, but GO, CLINTON, GO! : )

[Coop]

GO, CLINTON, GO! : )

Ugh! I think we need to convince him to go by "Clint." :-) But he looks sharp, photogenic. I wish him well.

[Dan from Michigan]

The GOP will need a very strong partisan turnout to win.

If LeSueur came from humble origins AND if he is originally from a black area of that district, that helps bigtime. Then he's one of them.

I think the social issues of Bennie Thompson(pro-abort and gun grabbing) will help LeSueur, especially among the white voters and the blacks who do vote republican. But can he get 7% more of the vote? That's going to be very tough since that 7% is likely all black voters.

On the same note though, has Thompson ever been in a real race? Since it sounds like LeSueur is doing everything right.

[Clintonfatigued]

It looks mildly promising. But in 2002, the only statewide race in Mississippi was the reelection of Senator Thad Cochran, who is hugely popular. Chances are, the Presidential race will increase African-American turnout.