Bush Overtakes Kerry

Gallup News Service ^ | March 30, 2004 | Lydia Saad

[RWR8189]

"Too liberal" tag sticking to Kerry

 

PRINCETON, NJ -- After trailing Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry in voter support throughout much of the Democratic primary season, President George W. Bush has taken a slight lead in the race for president. According to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted March 26-28, Bush has picked up four points compared to early March, putting him slightly ahead of Kerry among registered voters: 49% to 46%. Earlier this month, Bush had trailed Kerry by five points, 45% to 50%.

 

Horse Race -- Recent Trend
registered voters

Third-party candidate Ralph Nader's ultimate impact on the election will greatly depend on his success in petitioning for or otherwise earning placement onto state ballots this fall. But under ideal circumstances, assuming he does appear on most states' ballots, the current poll suggests that 5% of registered voters would back him, taking most of this support from Kerry. With Nader in the race, Kerry's support drops from 46% to 43%, while Bush's support drops from 49% to 48% -- giving Bush a five-point lead for president.

More Good News for Bush

There are several other positive indications of Bush's re-election chances in the new poll. To some degree, these may be logical extensions of his enhanced popularity, rather than causes of it. But there is also some evidence that voters have become less enthralled with Kerry than they were during the excitement of the Democratic primary season.

The percentage of Americans approving of the way Bush is handling his job as president increased slightly over the past month. Just over half the public, 53%, now approves of the way he is handling his job, while 44% disapprove. This is up from 50% approval in mid-March and is a statistically significant improvement over the 49% recorded earlier in the month.

Furthermore, while Bush's favorable image rating from the American people has remained stable at 56% to 57% over the past month, Kerry's favorable image has declined from 60% to 53%.

In retrospect, Kerry's positive image with Americans may have peaked in late January, shortly after he won the New Hampshire primary (following a surprise victory in the Iowa caucuses a week earlier). His win in New Hampshire catapulted him to front-runner status for the Democratic nomination -- and occurred before the Bush campaign began targeting Kerry in earnest. At that point, 61% of Americans had a favorable image of Kerry and only 23% had an unfavorable image of him. His image rating held at the 60% level in mid-February, but today has fallen to 53%. More than a third, 36%, now have an unfavorable image of him.

[RWR8189]

Gallup Ping

FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.

[Luis Gonzalez]

[EllaMinnow]

In retrospect, Kerry's positive image with Americans may have peaked in late January, shortly after he won the New Hampshire primary (following a surprise victory in the Iowa caucuses a week earlier). His win in New Hampshire catapulted him to front-runner status for the Democratic nomination -- and occurred before the Bush campaign began targeting Kerry in earnest. At that point, 61% of Americans had a favorable image of Kerry and only 23% had an unfavorable image of him. His image rating held at the 60% level in mid-February, but today has fallen to 53%. More than a third, 36%, now have an unfavorable image of him.

The more we see of Kerry, the less we see in him.

[Semper Paratus]

And this is in the middle of the 'rats biggest salvo they got to fire.

[Asclepius]

Most of the polls agree that Bush is edging past the sagging and effete junior senator from MA. But beating the senator is like beating an enfeebled old man--a bitter, angry, and even spry old man, but even so.

[Always Right]

Furthermore, while Bush's favorable image rating from the American people has remained stable at 56% to 57% over the past month, Kerry's favorable image has declined from 60% to 53%.

As expected. Few people knew anything about Kerry prior to him winning NH, just some undistinguished Senator. Of course as people learn of his out of the mainstream voting record, his numbers will fall.

[ErnBatavia]

And this is in the middle of the 'rats biggest salvo they got to fire.

The American people seem to know sewage when they smell it...

[familyofman]

That's it - ballgame over. No need for party conventions or voting in Nov.. Kerry should just give up now & save us all the bad TV generated by the conventions.

[af_vet_1981]

The percentage of Americans approving of the way Bush is handling his job as president increased slightly over the past month. Just over half the public, 53%, now approves of the way he is handling his job, while 44% disapprove. This is up from 50% approval in mid-March and is a statistically significant improvement over the 49% recorded earlier in the month. Furthermore, while Bush's favorable image rating from the American people has remained stable at 56% to 57% over the past month, Kerry's favorable image has declined from 60% to 53%.

It is no time to become complacent. The threat of a DemocratSocialist takeover of America is still very real. We must defeat Kerry and his accomplices.

[.cnI redruM]

We learned our lesson with Bilk Linton. It will become increasingly difficult for practicing lounge lizards to win the race for President.

[VRWC_minion]

Whenever they have attacked Bush on terrorism or war he ratings go up. Works like a charm. I hope this commission stays focused on Bush the rest of the election.

[steveegg]

Guess it's time to call up the "Bushies for Full Nader Ballot Access" brigades :-)

[GailA]

cute

[bushfamfan]

Yes, they will continue to attempt to rehabilitate him and deceive people. The Bush campaign needs to keep up pointing out Kerry's record, his hypocrisies and inconsistencies and bad judgment. I liked that C-span showed that Dick Cavett show the other day too because it shows people Kerry's radical nature. He's a phony all the way around and it needs to be continued in exposing his record.

[deport]

The above chart in the article uses registered voters.... Here is the USA Today/Gallup poll using 'likely voters'

2. If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?

	Kerry	Bush	Neither	Other	No opinion
Likely Voters
2004 Mar. 26-28	47	51	1	*	1
2004 Mar 5-7	52	44	2	1	1
2004 Feb 16-17	55	43	1	*	1
2004 Feb 6-8	48	49	1	*	2
2004 Jan 9-11	43	55	1	*	1

4. With Ralph Nader running as an independent candidate, who would you be most likely to vote for: Kerry, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican,or Nader, the independent?

	Kerry	Bush	Nader	None	Other	No opinion
Likely Voters
2004 Mar 26-28	45	49	4	1	*	1
2004 Mar 5-7	50	44	2	1	1	2

[Doug Loss]

That's it - ballgame over. No need for party conventions or voting in Nov.. Kerry should just give up now & save us all the bad TV generated by the conventions.

Don't get too complacent. Remember Torricelli/Lautenberg; if Kerry self-destructs too early, we may be facing someone entirely different by August-September. And who do you think that might be?

[Seruzawa]

I like Mark Steyn's idea. Bush should challenge Qaerry to a dozen debates. He should then sit silently and let Qaerry talk uninterrupted each time.

It'll be a landslide.

[GigaDittos]

I wonder. Should we quickly assume that Nader will effectively help Bush, or should we be cautious in taking this for granted? We know that Nader is basically a commie, but what is the strategy being planned between Nader and Kerry? I think Bush should not take this lightly.

[pfflier]

A few things have helped the president that weren't mentioned:

1) The anti-American/anti-Israel freaks were in the streets. That personifies the far left opposition and is offensive to the patriotism of many Americans. It helped consolidate support for the Iraq war a year ago and is helping President Bush now.

2) Congressional party politics is favoring the President. Few Americans are fooled by the sham 9/11 committee "hearings". Few will change their minds because of the testimony, but many will be influenced by the process.

3) The active participation of the mass liberal media to elect "anyone but Bush" is tangible. Americans in general hate to be told what to think. They tend to view themselves as educated, informed and independent decision makers. The more you push them, the more they resist.