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Posted on 04/02/2004 12:22:48 PM PST by John Jorsett
Here's a bit of breaking news from inside the Kerry campaign.
For months Kerry has relied on two heavy-hitting ad-makers to produce his television spots, Bob Shrum of Shrum, Devine & Donilon, and Jim Margolis of GMMB. Margolis reports that he will no longer be serving Kerry in that role. Here's what he told TNR a few minutes ago:
Unquestionably, being a part of Senator Kerry's presidential campaign has been one of the most important efforts our campaign has ever undertaken. The stakes couldn't be higher for our country, and we have been honored to help produce the spots and assist in developing the strategy that helped him secure the Democratic nomination. Senator Kerry and the campaign have asked us to continue in that same role for the general election.
However, due to proposed contract changes we could not come to an understanding that we regarded as workable. While we will continue to provide media placement services for the Kerry campaign, our strategic and advertising responsibilities will end.
We know that John Kerry will go on to win in November and that he will make a great President of the United States. We believe in Senator Kerry and deeply appreciate this opportunity to be part of his campaign.
Margolis declined to talk about the specifics of the "contract changes" that he found unworkable.
Shrum and Margolis worked together under the name of Riverfront Media, a company created for the campaign. During the primaries and caucuses, many pundits and consultants considered Kerry's ads to be the best on TV. The ads were produced in GMMB's space, not Shrum's, and inside the Kerry campaign Margolis was sometimes given more credit for them than Shrum.
Ever since Shrum joined the campaign last year, insiders have taken bets on how long the relationship with Margolis would last. The two men didn't know each other well, and in recent years often fiercely competed for the same political clients. Shrum is not known as a shrinking violet, and Margolis's ouster will undoubtedly be seen as evidence that Shrum, Kerry's closest adviser, is consolidating power inside the campaign. It's not clear yet if Shrum's firm will now handle all the advertising and strategy or if he will bring in another partner.
Margolis is the most senior Kerry adviser to leave the campaign since campaign manager Jim Jordan, who clashed with Shrum, departed in November.
UPDATE: Here's what Kerry campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill says about Margolis's departure:
Jim Margolis and his colleagues at the firm have made an extraordinary contribution to John Kerry's success. We're disappointed that they won't continue in that role, but pleased that his firm will continue to provide the best television placement in the business.
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Shrum and Margolis worked together under the name of Riverfront Media, a company created for the campaign.
Shrum set up this front company..
Shrum and Margolis worked together under the name of Riverfront Media, a company created for the campaign.
Shrum is the one on the far left.
Midwest oriented campaign - and Populism wins. Much like Gore's last minute strategy, which actually IMO was a smart move(if he did that earlier, he might have salvaged West VA...and the win).
Unfortunatly for Kerry, he's the worst person possible that can be used for selling that. There's a reason that no Dem New Englanders have won since 1960, and even in that race, it was an Irishman(albeit not a South Boston type) and not a Brahmin type. He's not solidifying the Catholic vote from what I see either. Many(like me) don't accept him as one because of his stances on issues.
Can you picture a workin' man in those auto factories being enthusiastic for him? "Yeah, he's one of us!". His gun stance is going to be an issue. Banning the .30-30 ammunition isn't going to go over well with the gun crowd. Even Tom Dashale voted against that ban. Gay marriage isn't popular in those factories, and even the blacks aren't happy about that. The abortion issue will be big as well, and was a near-killer(along with guns) for Jenny Granholm,(who barely won against an opponent that wasn't given a chance) ,who unlike Kerry, was charismatic.
There are only a few things that make this race competitive. JOBS(forget economic comparative theories - the only thing that matters is the bottom line), Lingering feelings of 2000, JOBS, Economy, and JOBS. Most vote their wallet here.
If Bush takes Michigan, he'll take Ohio as well. Ohio is actually 'polling' to the left currently, but that will change election time. The only time Ohio was to the 'left' of Michigan was when Gerry Ford(a homer) was running.
If I was Bush, I'd run on this(and use action, not words)
1. JOBS plan. Personally I'd like to see NAFTA and GATT get the heave ho, but that's not going to happen, so he better have somehting ready to lower the costs of manufacturing jobs here in this country, while at the same time bashing Kerry's votes on jobs. Taxes go here as well.
2. LAWSUIT ABUSE/TORT REFORM - An easy winner. Loser pays court costs, limits on class action suits and those 'on behalf of'. This will have every Chamber of Commerce group in the state out there doing gruntwork for him. This is the state of Geoffrey Fieger.....who even lost Ann Arbor. These can be framed as SMALL BUSINESS issues.
3. Kerry himself. His cultural leftism, elitism, on being one of the people but also living in 6-7 mansions, etc.
4. Foreign policy. I place this 4th. It's important, but the homefront is key first, else 92 would have been different.
5. Cultural issues - In some areas this is the most important issue, and in others, it isn't as big. On cases like the 2nd amendment, this is huge in all the rural areas, Macomb County, and most of the base areas like Livingston County and 90% of West Michigan, but I wouldn't be running as an NRA candidate in Okemos, Farmington Hills, or Royal Oak. Statewide ads would be a net positive, but targeted ads work best on this.
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