N. Korea: Vollertsen's take on the situation(Ryongchon Explosion)

The German activist/doctor Norbert Vollertsen has sent round an email to journalists. I am copying an excerpt below without editing or altering it in any way:

"-Out of my own experience in the desaster area I know that the nearby hospitals in Sinuiju and Ryongchon are in a desperate situation : there is no medicine, no bandage material, sometimes even no soap and running water - The North Korean doctors cannot give any sophisticated medical assistance for burnt victims - so what they are usually doing, sometimes even without desinfection, narcotics and with a simply razor-blade is donating there own skin like I did when I got my friendship medal

- Right now there is an urgent need for iv`s, bandage material, narcotics, water,soap, blankets etc. etc. and together with South Korean aid organizations we urge the North Korean government to inform the world about the real amount of the desaster and to open the border at Panmunjom to deliver these goods

- The North Korean railroad system is in a desperate condition too. Power shortages ( one trip from Pyongyang to Dandong (~270 km) can take up to 2 days!), technical mishaps (one of our aid containers burnt out in the same railroad station ) and delays because of military operations are usual incidents and created always dangerous situations with many victims

- Here in Seoul, among the North Korean defectors community there are more and more rumours about an failed military coup with an assasination attempt on Kim Jong-IL and some other conspiracy theories about attempts to increase the opportunity to get more foreign assistance, South Korean engagement and South-North reunification under the North`s ideology

- According to some North Korean sources here in Seoul the high number of civilian casulties including school-children indicates that Kim Jong-IL`s train was rescheduled and passed by the welcome ceromony at the train station"

I knew this could happen. N. Korea could "pressure" other countries to fix her rail system, collapsed infrastructure and industry in general at their expense, to "prevent this kind of disaster from happening again." What is missing in this picture? Their responsibility for the whole sorry affairs.

Here is a Stratfor analysis for the situation posted on the same website:

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Analysis

Stratfor argues: "Train Blast Offers an Opening to North Korea". The opening paragraph:

"As more details emerge about the deadly rail accident in North Korea, it is becoming clear the damage goes far beyond the human casualties and immediate humanitarian crisis. Ryongchon is an industrial hub that sits along the trunk line between the North Korean capital Pyongyang and the Chinese border - the source of much of North Korea's fuel supply. Reconstruction is likely to take some time, but if Pyongyang can play its cards right, it could gain valuable foreign investment and aid to rebuild an aging rail infrastructure and modernize its light and medium industries." The article's most interesting points (you need a subscription to read the full thing) are:

- "The explosion raises the possibility that North Korea could gain some much-needed investment in its infrastructure, as well as a new counterweight in ongoing nuclear talks." -"Interestingly, one of the entities Pyongyang invited to inspect the accident site in Ryongchon was the European Commission -- a nod to Pyongyang's desired economic partner. Europe has much of the same technology as the United States without all the political baggage, and therefore is a prime target for North Korean entreaties."

- "For Seoul and Washington, a North Korean disaster could seriously affect regional stability, but it also opens a window of opportunity to provide aid and assistance, creating a path to new understandings and discussions with -- and intelligence opportunities to use against -- the North."

- "For the North, there is an opportunity to elicit aid from its erstwhile partners/enemies or to encourage aid and assistance from Europe. There also is an opportunity to gain assistance in rebuilding and modernizing rail lines desperately in need of an upgrade. Each of these will require some form of political or security concession, but for Pyongyang, that might be a price worth paying to address the damage to its rail and industrial infrastructure after the Ryongchon accident."

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