[John H K]

Well, on the one hand, a lot of the estimates for casualties from an Invasion are wholly bogus (especially the "1 million American Dead").

On the other hand, it's highly doubtful that the Japanese would have unconditionally surrendered in August without the bombs, and because the United States had finally COMPLETELY destroyed the ferry, train, and coastal steamer network of Japan with bombs and mines, it's an absolute certainty that several MILLION Japanese would have died over the winter of 45/46 from starvation. A lot more than died in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

[GATOR NAVY]

it's an absolute certainty that several MILLION Japanese would have died over the winter of 45/46 from starvation. A lot more than died in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

But that would have been ok because they would have died naturally and not killed by the evil atomic bombs. </lefty-peacenik mode>

[A.A. Cunningham]

Well, on the one hand, a lot of the estimates for casualties from an Invasion are wholly bogus (especially the "1 million American Dead").

That's nothing but speculation on your part. Between the time Truman was sworn in as President and the dropping of the first nuke, the United States suffered over 50 percent of it's Pacific theater casualties for the entire war. Battle plans for the Second Marine Division did not exist for D+5 of the invasion because planners did not believe that the Division would still be functional due to casualties. People who were there know that you're WAG is just that.