Strong Job Growth Continues in States Across the Country

Republican National Committee ^ | June 21, 2004

[RWR8189]

State-by-State Jobs Data

• June 18 the government released May jobs figures for states across the country - and the news is good. According to statistics released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), job creation was up in 44 of the 50 states in the last year, and the unemployment rate was down in all regions and in 46 of the 50 states.
  
• Nationwide, the economy has posted steady job gains for each of the last nine months - creating more than 1.4 million new jobs since August. The national unemployment rate stood at 5.6% in May - down 0.7 percentage point from a peak of 6.3% in June 2003 - and below the average of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.
  
• Nearly 1 million new jobs have been created in the last 100 days alone.
  
• Across the country, 248,000 new jobs were created in May according to the payroll survey - and the increases in April and March were revised upward by 58,000 and 16,000, respectively, for a combined upward revision of 74,000 new jobs.
  
• On average, over 237,000 jobs per month have been created since the beginning of this year.
  
• The household survey also shows a big increase in jobs, up 1.5 million since August.
  
• National manufacturing employment has risen for four consecutive months, with over 90,000 new jobs created. Manufacturing employment increased 32,000 in May and was revised upward by 22,000 jobs for March and April. The ISM Manufacturing survey reached a 30-year high in May, indicating further strength in manufacturing employment.
  
• Economic growth over the last year has been the fastest in nearly 20 years.
  
• After-tax incomes are up by 11% since December 2000-substantially faster growth than following the last recession, and household wealth is near an all-time high.
  
• Inflation is low and interest rates and mortgage rates are near historic lows.
  
• Homeownership rates are near record highs. Minority homeownership is at its highest rate ever.
  
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 25% in 2003, and the NASDAQ rose by 50%. President Bush's Actions Are Helping to Drive Our Economy Forward President Bush has brought our economy back so it is growing again and creating new jobs. Now is not the time to change the policies that are strengthening our economic recovery.

The American economy has faced serious challenges over the last three years:

• Recession: The President took office as we were headed into a recession. The manufacturing sector started losing jobs in August 2000, and orders for capital goods were falling. The stock market peaked in August 2000 and was declining in early 2001 when the President's term began.
  
• Terrorist Attacks: We lost nearly one million jobs in just the three months following 9/11. In fact, nearly 70 percent of net job losses from the end of 2000 to the low-point in August 2003 occurred in 2001 during the recession and immediately after 9/11.
  
• Corporate Scandals: Investor confidence was hurt and energy, telecommunications, accounting, and other key sectors were affected, slowing the recovery.
  
• Uncertainties of War: The uncertainties created from fighting the war on terror in Afghanistan and Iraq slowed the recovery by weakening consumer and business confidence.

The President has acted decisively to bring us back from recession to recovery. He has:

• Cut taxes on families by lowering tax rates for all taxpayers, increasing the child credit, and reducing the marriage penalty.
  
• Phased out the death tax, helping to preserve family farms and businesses.
  
• Encouraged business growth by providing incentives for small businesses to invest.
  
• Made the stock market stronger by cutting taxes on dividends and capital gains.
  
• Passed the strongest corporate governance reforms since FDR was President.
  
• Proposed his Six-Point Plan to encourage economic growth and job creation by: making tax cuts permanent; reducing the cost of health care; reducing unnecessary regulations; curbing frivolous lawsuits; ensuring a reliable, affordable supply of energy; and opening foreign markets to U.S. products and services.
  
• Proposed his Jobs for the 21st Century initiative to improve education for high school students and train workers for industries creating the most new jobs.

[ServesURight]

Time for the obligatory Tom Daschle pic.

[expat_panama]

Most don't realize just how far taxes were cut in comparison to the economy.  In 2000, taxes (% gdp) were higher than ever before-- higher than even during World War II.  The tax cuts not only lowered the rates, but with the resulting economic rebound taxes (% gdp) are now at a half century low. 

[no dems]

This is great news. The Sec'ty of Commerce said today it is very likely that this job growth will continue until the end of the year, at least.

[Cronos]

ping!

[hermgem]

Bad news for Kerry, but a renewed challenge for him and the liberal main stream media to make this job growth appear stale and negative.
Up to this time those two power forces by staying united in besmirching this recovery have been successful.

[MattinNJ]

The local radio keeps playing the news clip every half hour that NJ has the highest number of jobs ever. I may have to eat my words that NJ will be in play in November.

[lelio]

On average, over 237,000 jobs per month have been created since the beginning of this year.

Perhaps someone on here can tell me how the BLS's birth death model works into this. To me it looks like they just throw in some fudge factor numbers per month:

Month	Added (subtracted) in thousands
Jan	-321
Feb	115
Mar	153
Apr	270
May	195

Regardless if this is a correct way of doing it, I have problems with a number that swings from -321,000 jobs in Jan to +115,000 jobs in Feb and using that in any sort of calculation.

[RWR8189]

Do you have a good understanding about exactly how the Net Birth/Death Model works, because I don't, and I have a few questions.

Is the number reported as the "net births/deaths" seasonally adjusted or non-seasonally adjusted? Because it makes quite a large difference if it is added or subtracted from approximately 1 million or from 250,000.

When the final report for any particular month is released (usually 3 months after IIRC) does this still include data from the Net Birth/Death Model, or does it include the final data from the CES?

And also if you follow the logic of the model it would make a lot of sense for there to be considerably more business "deaths" in the month of January as opposed to other months.

[RWR8189]

bttt